Friday
Aug122011
by 
Bishop Hill
Bishop Hill Leaf lines
Aug 12, 2011 Climate: MWP Nature News has a report of a possible new way of reconstructing past climates - measuring the density of veins in fossil leaves.
Benjamin Blonder, an ecologist at the University of Arizona in Tucson working with Brian Enquist, assumed that were many factors affecting vein density, but he set out to make a model that would capture as much of the variation as possible. He collected leaves from about 65 species from temperate North America. His preliminary models suggest that vein density can predict with a surprising degree of accuracy climatic factors temperature and precipitation.
Reader Comments (15)
Not only that, they can predict the amount of grant money that will be hosed in his direction.
Providing those leaves tell the 'right' story, of course!
Apparently leaf vein density is a good indicator of forest stratification. So one leaf taken from the same species of tree may have a completely different leaf vein density than say a younger/older, taller/smaller, flowering/non flowering, close/far, open to the sun/partially shaded/completely shaded, etc, etc, tree in the same forest.
All I can say to Benjamin Blonder is good luck with the research, because you are going to need lots of it to convince anyone.
Well it makes a change from tea leaves, what next fossile chicken entrails?
JF
Found this on the web;
Do you think the Met Office should buy some goats and do away with computers?
Mac, I think you might be on to something there there's bound to be a research grant in there plus if they use billy goats gruff AGW trolls will be happy :)
Mac
Do you think the Met Office should buy some goats and do away with computers?
I think that they should -- they could keep them out on the lawn and so keep it trimmed, served as barbeque at departmental meetings and once a month (just prior to a departmental meeting) the chief meteorologist could sacrifice one and read the entrails. However, I suspect PETA would object.
But they most probably would do better than they have done for the last several years. In deed just about anyone could do better. My favorite (because I am Irish and have many friends in Donegal) is Michael Gallagher, a postman who just looked at that was going on around him as he delivered mail. Last year his predictions were fair more accurate than the Met. And he is probably the only postman with a page on Wikipedia
What I find interesting is there is so much science/archaeology that has relied on dating from "Trees".
Only last night I was watching a re-run of "Time Team" in York, They were on a new site and had found a piece of wood that still had the bark on it. They claimed that they could not only name the year but also the month (!) and the fact that the tree came from the south of England.
I am not saying that they were wrong but they did not explain how they came to the conclusion or what evidence they had. It was simply spoken and the viewer was expected to accept it with an open mouth.....and no one objected! Tony Robinson was so supportive.
Please (and I mean this), can anyone explain to a humble electrical engineer, how one can not only name a year or month but also the southern location. I need to explain to my Grandson who looked at me like I was a total prat as I could not give him an answer.on dendrochronology!
By the way Bish, after reading your book a few months ago, I have been meaning to ask about page 115,,, "The third plank of the argument" ...... Have you ever had anyone smirking, as I did about that? ;-)
I am seeking grant funding to perform a study correlating the width of facial lines in mummies with climate change. Is anyone able to suggest potential funding sources? I propose to start by seeking mummified remains on Curacao, Aruba, Sint Maartens and Bali.
@Pete: you can get the year from the pattern of tree ring thicknesses. Month - dunno, perhaps an intelligent guess based on an the last, uncompleted ring. Where it grew - perhaps elemental and isotope analysis; that's how you can tell from bones where someoene grew up, isn't it? Stonehenge archer, and so on.
Nature News = Rumor Mill. No mention of any publications, submitted or accepted. No mention of any presentations at scientific meetings. A visit to the websites of Professor Enquist and grad student Blonder (anticipating PhD in 2014) provides no information; Enquist hasn't bothered to update his list of publications since 2009 (or has been unusually unproductive since then).
If these scientists do have convincing data that their methodology works at one site, they should get grant money to see if it is general. We certainly need more reliable temperature proxies. But it will take 5-10 years for a new proxy to become established and trusted.
Temperatures rising over time can be directly correlated with the size of the reporting scientist's bank account also. I'm waiting for that study.
Wrong type of leaves on the line, shuerly?
Not sure about lines, but it has been known for some time that there is a correlation between leaf complexity and latitude. Smooth-edged leaves are common in tropical and subtropical domains where environmental heat alone is sufficient to drive adequate evaporation from the leaves and prevent wilting. In temperate and colder climates leaves become complex in shape and have small glands along the perimeter that pump water away as vapor. Otherwise the plant wilts in the colder climate. This index of leaf geometry was used to reconstruct the environment experienced by dinosaurs living in what is now northern Canada, at a time when it was much closer to the geographic north pole. The conclusion was that the local climate resembled southern Alaska or coastal British Columbia.
Is he including stomata size?? Helps to control for CO2 fertilization.
Pity most leaves don't hang around very long.