Bishop Hill Upcoming events
May 9, 2011 Climate: Jones Next week, I'm off down south for a couple of days. The purpose of the visit is to attend a conference to which I've been invited. This promises to be fun, with a positively stellar list of speakers:
- Phil Jones
- Andrew Watson (of "Morano is an asshole" fame)
- Mike Lockwood (of "Svensmark is all wrong" fame)
- Henrik Svensmark (of "no I'm not" fame)
- Nils Axel Morner
- Ian Plimer
- John Mitchell (of "no IPCC working papers" fame)
- Nigel Lawson
- Vaclav Klaus
The balance of speakers is not quite right, with nobody there to put the Stern review side of the economic arguments, but it's hard to argue with the calibre of speaker the organisers have recruited. The suggestion in the invitation was that the organisers see the event as forming an opportunity for compromise between the two sides of the global warming debate.
I will try to liveblog at least some of the proceedings on Tuesday, wifi availability and battery life permitting. Josh will be on hand to do the visuals.
If anyone wants to help defray the cost of the trip, your contributions to the tip box will be gratefully received.
[The conference is invitation-only, but Phil Jones is doing a repeat of his talk at the University of Lancaster on Friday (h/t Aztek) for those who are interested.]
(Bumped)
Reader Comments (40)
Boy, I'd love to be an observer at THAT gathering! Who's running this? And remember, don't be beastly to the warmies.
A surprising line up! Punch-ups expected?
I will take a happy bet on Jones answering no or virtual no questions which have not be 'front loaded ' for his consideration. So his not exposed to 'hostile' people
Any chance on blagging an invite - for a Watts Up With That write up?
7/4 on that Jones pulls out.
Coins in the jar.......keep us up to date.
Sounds as though it's going to be fun!
Nils Axel Morner should be fun. He predicts a new Little Ice Age by the middle of this century.
http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/2011/05/geophysicist-dr-nils-axel-morner.html
I met Nils Axel Morner and saw his presentation a month or so ago. His was a 'lively' presentation, it should be fun just for him alone. His opinion of the IPCC does come across quite strongly ;)
Sounds like a seriously good gathering. Can't wait for the write-up. A few shillings dropped in your travel pail..
Some readies in the collection plate for you, Bish. And in case anyone accuses you of being funded by Big Oil, I'd like to declare an interest: we've got a 10 litre can of petrol in the shed.
Phil is gonna sooooo lurve having you in the audience! Hope you get a front row seat right in his eyeline.
And don't forget to give him a signed edition of HSI. Perhaps with a complimentary copy of the Freedom of Information Act? Leather bound for durability and frequent reference.
Have a great trip.
Do remember to bring a copy of HSI and hold it so Phil can see the cover.
Has anyone cancelled Bin Laden's reservation?
I hope that it lives up to its potential. Can't wait to read your reports.
What would the compromise be?
Shall the warmists start to tell the truth a little and the skeptics start to lie a little?
Don't forget to tell Phil that there is no "F" in GLOBAL WARMING although there are two "A"s
Donation made - just please make sure they answer the question that was asked.
The Stern review argument is simple: use a 0.1% discount rate to assess future impacts. A conference shouldn't waste its limited time on such obvious rubbish. Without this insane discount rate, Stern's conclusions are not valid. It's the equivalent of saying "I've got this fantastic project, which will work great as long as you give me unlimited free money." To which the obvious answer is "I've got an even better fantastic project, so I want the money to flow in my direction, not yours." That's why companies use realistic discount rates to compare alternative investments. As long as all the other assumptions are reasonably accurate, it separates good projects from bad projects. When companies ignore that lesson (as in the internet bubble, or the mad China rush of the 1990s), they lose fortunes.
Don't know if you have left yet but I have 2 queries. If you have been invited then the organisor should pay all your expenses. It is certain that the poor people on the other side will be well covered. If they won't pay then you shouldn't be tempted to go.
Second, what is / are the objectives of this gathering ,and how does your knowledge map to those objectives. If there is a mismatch don't go. As SteveMc discovered these invitations are very often poison chalices designed to expose your apparent shortcomings and highlight the superiority of the others.
If you go. Good luck.
"The suggestion in the invitation was that the organisers see the event as forming an opportunity for compromise between the two sides of the global warming debate."
That is quite a wild suggestion, given the line up of speakers! Also, I rather think there are many more sides to the global warming debate than two.
Having said that, I would be surprised if anyone at that conference stood up and told us that anything predicted in Al Gore's Inconvenient Truth is ...er....true i.e. going to happen any time soon. That must be progess of a sort over the last couple of years. Go gettem, Bish!
Jack Savage, there are indeed two sides, those who are certain (or who maintain a public face of certainty) and those who are not. I am not sure how there can be a compromise with certainty.
I fail to see why I am not invited to these things. I was instrumental in launching Climate Audit and making Steve McIntyre in to the internationally recognized figure he is today. I helped make history and all the Bishop did was write about the history I made and refer to me just *once* in his book as "a collaborator".
Montford is just a hack riding on my coat-tails.
*grumble* *mutter* *gripe*
It's all chiseled in stone, John A, and will endure.
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All I want is the opportunity to call Phil Jones to his face a disgrace to science and a defender of massive scientific misconduct.
Andrew, I'm looking forward to some reports on this conference. Sounds as big as a World Cup match between Germany and England!
If the conference leads to genuine opportunities for dialogue (over a pint?) it could be quite productive. I hope it goes well.
@ pytlozvejk
Indeed. A typical VC discount rate is 70%, apparently, reflecting the fact that they typically invest in 10 or 12 complete dogs for every goldmine. A goldmine will pay out even at 70%.
Apply the same level of uncertainty to ecoluddism and suddenly it all starts to look a bit iffy.
I'm still waiting to find out who furnishes these 100-year climate forecasters with their 100-year forecasts of energy source, aplication, supply, demand, and price. If you don't know those you can't forecast consumption hence neither can you forecast emissions. If all the ecoluddites have used is a stupid assumption that all will be the same in 100 years' time as today, I'd like one of these wreckers to stand up in public and say so, so we can all have a good laugh.
Is it a good to mantra these AGW people with any respectability by actually debating with them I would ask.? I think there beginning to need this these days...
Nils Morner would be a fascinating fellow to talk with, a studious. learned and sincere bloke and not one for making outlandish wild claims.
Plimer and Lawson similarly would be interesting conversation. Vaclav is a personal hero, I'd sit next to him in reverent silence.
Though to get Phil in a corner, to test his mettle, I'll warrant that - in Phil's case.... you can make his say just about anything after half an hour's briefing him - so a bloke at Penn State told me.
■Vaclav Klaus (dissident of the European Union fame)
http://www.abcprague.com/2008/11/11/vaclav-klaus-thinks-he-is-eu-dissident
Seen the latest b*ll*cks in the Guardian...
Climate change 'threatens UK wi-fi connections', says government report
Unless the UK is going to turn into the Sahara, I cannot see the CAGW climate "range" going beyond the current "range". So Wifi is at threat, despite some of the biggest technology organisations in the world performing extensive testing and proving?
I live in Hungary, during the oppressive summer months temperatures can get to 40 degree Celsius with big storms rolling in...
We should be more worried about the passing meteor knocking out our comms, than the UK getting a bit warmer for a few months of the year.
@ Jiminy Cricket
Global warming started with the introduction of Radio Communications. As the years have gone bye the frequency's in use have got higher and higher until we got to cellular communications when we started to microwave the planet big time :-)
@Anoneumouse
It is my brain that is frazzled from reading articles like that...
if you want a good laugh here is "Cut 'n paste" Louise's take... read the comments. Louise and the report are getting absolutely slaughtered, and quite rightly too.
Climate change 'could disrupt wi-fi and hit power supply'
Does being green automatically mean total acceptance of rubbish?
I'd be interested to hear what kind of response you get if you told them that google news now counts more hits in the UK for "peak oil" than "global warming".
To be honest, I suspect the only reason they are inviting along sceptics, is because the media are not longer interested in Global Warming, and inviting along a few people to have an argument is the last rabbit they have to pull out of a very empty bag of media stunts.
@jiminy
'Does being green automatically mean total acceptance of rubbish?
Yep. It is an absolute prereq. Along with wishful thinking, self-delusion, psychopathy and worship of Mother Gaia.
Unless you do all these things you are not a proper green and will be excluded from The Chosen Ones forever.
Before you go I suggest you have a look at the Graphs here
Apropos of Mike Haseler's note about the graphs, here it is May 9 and I am still running around in my thick Donegal Irish knit sweater! I usually have it packed away by April 10.
This has been the coldest winter in the Sierra's for 30 years. And certainly the most snow.
My worry is the polar bears might decide to move to California because of the arctic conditions we are having.
You can tell Phil Jones that if any polar bears are missing in the Arctic, it is because they moved to Tahoe.
Two other helpful invites would have been-
Ben (I think I'll beat the crap oout of him) Santer
Michael (the fracking frackers are fracking up the frack...) Tobis
From the Ecclesiastical Uncle, an old retired bureaucrat in a fild only remotely related to climate with minimal qualifications and only half a mind.
Who are the organisers? Have they any known affiliations? What have they to gain by putting this shindig on?
Be advised by the answers, if any.
@Justice4Rinka Yes, any 100-year projection is close to worthless, because we know nothing about future technology, resource pricing, and so on. I seem to recall that someone in the 19th century concluded that London had already reached the limits of growth, because a larger city would choke itself on the piles of horse manure created by everyday traffic. (I don't have a primary source for that, so it may be apocryphal.)