Buy

Books
Click images for more details

Support

 

Twitter
Recent comments
Recent posts
Currently discussing
Links

A few sites I've stumbled across recently....

Powered by Squarespace
« RS Publishing responds | Main | Was Russell a public appointment? »
Tuesday
Apr192011

Cloud parallels

An interesting article in which the author, Art Rangno, compares his experiences trying to replicate a cloud-seeding experiment to those of Steve McIntyre on the Hockey Stick. He draws unfavourable comparisons between paleoclimate and his own field regarding data availability, and says kind things about the Hockey Stick Illusion in the process.

Almost at every turn in this monumental exposé by A. W. Montford, I see parallels in the many cloud seeding reanalyses I did at the University of Washington with Peter Hobbs.  The two sentences quoted above from Montford’s book, so fundamental a step in checking results, literally leapt off the page since that is exactly where the most basic replication starts, and where we always began in our cloud seeding (CS) reanalyses.

PrintView Printer Friendly Version

Reader Comments (16)

The comparisons are very apt, but it doesn't stop with the data...

"Rainmaking refers to the act of attempting to artificially induce or increase precipitation, usually to stave off drought.

In the US, rainmaking was attempted by traveling showmen."

The more things change, the more the remain the same!

Apr 19, 2011 at 7:51 AM | Unregistered CommenterFrosty

I think the conclusion to that article is important to quote since it shows a counter example to the bad practice that McINtyre experienced:

Epilogue

However, unlike the situation that McIntyre repeatedly encounters in Montford’s HSI account, where climate researchers refuse to honor requests for raw data, in our re-analysis of cloud seeding experiments in Colorado, the experimenters at Colorado State University were totally cooperative in supplying data that was occasionally requested by the present writer. They did this even though they KNEW that the requestor was a critic/skeptic, might challenge their earlier results. To their great credit, the ideals of science were given a higher priority than their egos by those at CSU and that finding problems and discrepancies were recognized as a way of advancing science, not hindering it.

Apr 19, 2011 at 8:41 AM | Unregistered CommenterThe Leopard In The Basement

@The Leopard In The Basement - Thank you - I was about to post exactly the point you make.

I would say the actions of a few at the CRU as well as "the team" elsewhere it seems, are appalling.

Science will survive this - in the same way as all dictatorial manipulative individuals get their just rewards.

I take heart from the fact that whilst the alarmists continue the spin that the emails were stolen - they were it seems, leaked - presumably by individuals as concerned for the wellbeing of science as the rest of us.

Apr 19, 2011 at 8:53 AM | Unregistered CommenterDoug UK

Note that the cloud seeders had not just archived data, but the raw data.Used an independant organisation to conduct the measurements of precipitation and everything was put in the public domain.
Any bets on if this is dropped into a suitable thread over at Real Climate, for example, it would be censored faster than Mann's "Back to 1400" (sic) data!

Apr 19, 2011 at 8:57 AM | Unregistered CommenterAdam Gallon

Oo's a clever boy, then? Mummy's little soldier.

Apr 19, 2011 at 9:10 AM | Unregistered Commenterdearieme
Apr 19, 2011 at 9:19 AM | Unregistered CommenterAnoneumouse

Good insights. Climate science does seem to be in need of a good spring-clean in the ethics and good practices department, with perhaps lessons to be learned of wider interest about the problems and challenges and personality types that emerge to prominence when politics intrudes so vigorously into research. I suspect the Hockey Stick Illusion will remain important for some time to come, even when the collective madness of CO2 Alarmism has dissipated into the background noise of idle chatter and speculation.

Apr 19, 2011 at 10:21 AM | Unregistered CommenterJohn Shade

A little O/T ...

Is the HSI the final version or does His Grace have any plans for a second edition?

[There's a sequel coming, but slowly]

Apr 19, 2011 at 11:38 AM | Unregistered CommenterAlan Bates

Have y'all looked at the rest of Art Rangno's blog? There's some fantastic cloud information there, with loads of beautiful photographs and detailed explanations of what's going on. Lovly jubbly.

Apr 19, 2011 at 11:42 AM | Unregistered Commentersteveta_uk

Meanwhile, Charles Manson joins the consensus:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1378178/Charles-Manson-breaks-20-year-silence-40th-anniversary-gruesome-Sharon-Tate-murders.html#ixzz1JxLxfQkx

So on the opposite side of Simon Singh's little credibility chart - people whose opinion matters but not in a good way - we now have:

- Osama bin Laden
- the Mafia
- Prince Charles
- phishing thieves
- Bono, probably
- VAT fraudsters
- Enron
- people who got 3 Bs in their A-Levels and chose to read BSc Climate Science at UEA
- Phil Jones

and now

- Charles Manson.

So thieves, murders, fraudsters, organised criminals, decline-hiders, email-deleters, and a number of attention-seeking bloody fools are all part of the consensus, too.

Me, I'm with Michael Crichton, Richard Lindzen, and our host.

Apr 19, 2011 at 12:02 PM | Unregistered CommenterJustice4Rinka

Someone should cross-post Art Rangno's concluding remarks over at RealClimate. Sure, it's likely be double-plus unposted but they may as well be made to feel as dirty as their censorship policy warrants.

Apr 19, 2011 at 1:20 PM | Unregistered Commenterqwerty

John Shade
Climate science does seem to be in need of a good spring-clean in the ethics and good practices department.

John,
I don't think a spring clean would hack it. We're Augean Stables territory there

Sandy

Apr 19, 2011 at 2:16 PM | Unregistered CommenterSandy

Sandy, are there any local rivers that some herculean denier could divert through the CRU stables?

Apr 19, 2011 at 5:26 PM | Unregistered CommenterRayG

J4r,
You can see Keith Kloor going haywire, that Anthony Watts drew attention to the fact that Charles Manson believes in global warming. His gripe? "Isn't it unfair to compare warmists to mass murderers? Isn't it below the belt?"

How is it that, you never come across a murderer that goes "Hmmm... what is this global warming thing. I am a bit skeptical about it"...

Maybe they are there, "out there".

Apr 19, 2011 at 6:22 PM | Unregistered CommenterShub

RayG
I guess the Wensum would do the trick in Norwich.

Sandy

Apr 19, 2011 at 8:54 PM | Unregistered Commentersandy

Hi Bishop

he also has an interesting take post climategate

http://cloud-maven.com/?page_id=370

Apr 19, 2011 at 11:11 PM | Unregistered Commenterdougieh

PostPost a New Comment

Enter your information below to add a new comment.

My response is on my own website »
Author Email (optional):
Author URL (optional):
Post:
 
Some HTML allowed: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <code> <em> <i> <strike> <strong>