Buy
Books
Click images for more details
Currently discussing
-
Apr 12 - fnaf
on
Advantages of financial advisers in Bristol -
Apr 1 - Fauxjacket
on
Launched my very own online store.
Links
A few sites I've stumbled across recently....
-
Science blogs
-
Political blogs
-
Other blogs
Subscribe
Bishop Hill
Copyright © 2006-2013, Bishop Hill All rights reserved.
Reader Comments (26)
I'm uncertain about this Josh.
Hmm...settled areas of uncertainty, unsettled areas of uncertainty, settled ares of certainty, and unsettled areas of certainty. What we need is an marketing guru to sell us a 2x2 matrix. Either that, or perhaps Gavin could explain certainty and settled-ness again.
BBD, have read the threads on Climate etc and the Blackboard? I think it makes sense then, tho' that could just be my fevered mind.
BBD, sorry, have you read..etc etc
Josh
'Twas but a jest. ;-)
I should have said:
I'm 'uncertain' about this Josh.
Rumsfeld got an ignominious award for his original words - worse use of english by an english speaking politician or some such. The criticism of Rumsfeld was kind of funny, really, as he was in fact taking his cue from Plato (who is quoting Socrates) on the nature of uncertainty. The original is in Meno and I think the reference is 381 (BC)
I always thought Rumsfeld's observation to be quite acute.
Justice4Rinka
Yes indeed. Rumfelt was ridiculed by journos who didn't have the intellect to get his point. If it had been St Obama who said it they would have tried a bit harder.
Ah ha! Tnx BBD.
ThinkingScientist, I think Rumsfeld captured a modern philosophical question, what the heck do we know?
Climate Science? Not even on the starting blocks if you read all the posts and comments following Zeke's post.
If you've ever been responsible for the welfare and well being of other people, you'll think and plan ahead as much as you can but it's the unknown unknowns that keep you awake at nights.
Pointman
You are well named then, pointman ;-)
I think that there is more agreement now, than there was before there was as much agreement as there is now.
There may also be more disagreement than there was before there was as much disagreement as there is now.
You need a better target, Josh. This one is stale.
Nice one Josh!
J4R and David C. I laughed when Rumsfeld made the original statement, but I understood his logic.
Trouble shooting, defects diagnosis etc is what I do, and being honest about what one does not know or understand is important, along with accepting what the perceived/reported problem is, but being open to the possibility that the real problem, may be something else.
"Something else", often turns out to be human ego, not being prepared to admit human error.
Yes Josh, another very perceptive cartoon
@ BBD
Do you want to borrow my spade
I think it hits the spot. Has DR ever pronounced on climate..?
Anoneumouse
Still digging, I see.
O/T But maybe one for Josh to think of one time in the future...
Guardian: Dictator's son had plans drawn up for £234m superyacht
I am sure Equatorial Guinea are first with the begging bowl at IPCC conferences... we imperialists should be ashamed of ourselves.
20% of kids die before 5, yet huge oil wealth, and on a salary of USD 7000 the Presidents son plans a GBP 234 m mega-yacht...
Cannot think of a better example of the corruption of the IPCC...
Well, it's not climate change they're talking about, but...
Josh's reference here is to the post at Lucia's, and discussed elsewhere where Zeke proposes a preliminary list of the items that are agreed between the disputants. More particularly he puts various claims in the IPCC 'most likely', 'very likely, etc categories. I think it's a useful post, not particularly for the listing that Zeke starts with, but for the comments which show a pretty wide range of things that are not taken as given, and a whole slew of things that aren't often considered. The whole thread certainly shows that there are a lot of 'disagreed disagreements'. It also shows how extremely complex the whole area is, and how next to impossible to make easy shorthand statements that sum up the position. I would really like Chris Huhne to read that thread, then perhaps he's understand why the thing ain't settled yet.
Great take on this Josh.
Josh, I thought this your best yet. Rumsfeld may not have said it first but he said it well.
For us, It is certainly the uncertainty of our uncertainties that is most troubling.
As a former project manager I can say Rumsfeld was unfairly maligned.
Known unknowns are factored into any plan. You know what they are but you can't say exactly what effect they will have e.g. the future price of bulk concrete. So you allow an estimated value to handle them - i.e. an educated guess.
The unknown unknowns are harder to handle. Usually you add an arbitrary number - the 'embuggerance factor' to handle stuff your don't know about, but on historical averages it affects your project by x %.
Quite how Rumsfeld ever achieved any kind of responsible position in American society must be a testimony to the dead hand of secret societies or I dunno, something ... The Peter principle on steroids?
The man is a weapons grade imbecile and has conclusively demonstrated this on the numerous occasions he's been allowed out from the geriatric ivy league frat house.
This is the man who wanted to invade Iraq with 30,000 troops in 2003 (and it wasn't a slip - he pushed this for almost a year) - with arithmetic skills like that - who on earth in their right mind would believe anything he uttered?
But I suppose that might be the point.....
Tom,
Actually Rumsfeld is very very bright. This ought to give you sufficient pause while you ponder that high intelligence is insufficient to some situations, or in the context of some, dare I say, "faith-based" beliefs - and I don't mean Religion.
Long ago, he was my congressman.
@j ferguson
OK I take your point, delusion is no respecter of "intellect" - the world is littered with evidence for that :-)
From where I'm sat I'd say he's crafty....
What about disagreed agreements?
Jerry says: "Usually you add an arbitrary number - the 'embuggerance factor' to handle stuff your don't know about, but on historical averages it affects your project by x %"
The trouble is that this can end up being recursive. There's a great maxim in software development along the lines of: "It will take twice as long as you think, even when you take this rule into account."