Tuesday
Feb012011
by 
Bishop Hill
Bishop Hill I am a number
Feb 1, 2011 Climate: Surface A propos of the post about the use of the word "denier", I was pondering the problems we have with referring to the different attitudes to global warming in the debate. Names like sceptic, warmist, denier are all bickered over endlessly.
Perhaps each of us should adopt a number, being the amount of warming we expect to see over the period 2000-2100. It would be more precise and less prone to use in a derogatory fashion.
It's an idea anyway.
What number are you?
Reader Comments (109)
. . . the amount of warming we expect to see over the period 2000-2100
Human caused or natural?
In either case, my answer is that widely used engineering term: SWAG
Having spent a fair amount of time over the past 4 years reading up on the global warming issue I can see little scientific basis for making quantitative long-term forecasts of average surface temperature change, However vegetation cover changes and extensions of the built environment resulting from population increases can be expected to have effects (mostly increases) on on-land surface temperatures which could contribute measurably to global trends. Pielke Snr and his associates have been publishing papers on these issues for some years, although their work has been largely ignored by the IPCC. If there are to be any effects from CO2 increases these are likely to be chiefly felt in those regions where atmospheric H2O is at its lowest, namely the polar deserts, where there are few climate stations. Irrespective of such possible anthropogenic trends in actual regional and global surface temperatures, if the proportion of surface stations located at airports continues to increase I would expect this trend to show up in the regional and global figures as a bogus temperature increase.
This http://bit.ly/fOT2NW reads like a sensational novel. Poor Chiara. This could possibly borderline on child abuse or neglect. Spreading FUD (Fear, Uncertainty & Doubt)
I study InfoSec. One organization list in their Code of Ethics:
Discourage unnecessary fear or doubt, and do not consent to bad practices.
Shouldn't all professions have similar codes of ethics, especially communication fields like journalism?
Punxsutawney Phil is still the most reliable weather predicting machine/method. I don't know how he is going to see his shadow today in all this snow that's falling.
I’ve gone for +1 caused by the population increase and the need for additional crematoriums as a result of the redefined Involuntary Euthanasia Act 2074 more commonly known to the brainwashed proletariat as Carousel.
Could you send my winnings please to my childrens childrens children who are now in hiding from the Sandmen and the Carousel event but will be living in a secret commune designated Sanctuary a converted oil platform in the North Sea. Thanks.
Kevin
Punxsutawney Phil is still the most reliable weather predicting machine/method.
Phil has been confirmed by two of his Fellow Forecasters . No word from Michael Gallagher yet.
Don Pablo
haha
Punxsutawney Phil is still the most reliable weather predicting machine/method.
The trouble with Phil is that he's a groundhog, not a hedgehog. A proper prediction would run something along the lines of "40% chance of a long winter, 30% chance of a moderate winter, and 30% chance of a short winter." The fine print would indicate that "long" means 5-7 more weeks, moderate means 4-6 more weeks, and short means 3-5 more weeks.
test...bishop you can kill this comment...testing blockquote here. it didn't work here yesterday
—Former United States Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld