Thursday
Dec012011
by 
Bishop Hill
Bishop Hill Well, yes
Dec 1, 2011 Climate: WG2 The drought that has affected parts of England since June will last into next summer if there is insufficient winter rain, the Environment Agency has said.
Reader Comments (29)
On the other hand - if we have plenty of rain - it won't!
If there is too much winter rain then the drought could cause flooding.
The Environment Agency ? Those folk are looking to work their way to the heights occupied by the Met Office aren't they?
It's quite informative to see how the PR folk at the EA lay the trail of corn on the ground for the MSM chickens to peck at and follow.
Blogger Katabasis had done some excellent work showing how this sort of stuff works - probably confirming prejuudices held by a few folk here
If things don't change they'll stay the same.
It isn't just that.
50% of their prognoses turn out to be worse than average!
With drought conditions surely any rain at all immediately gets sucked into the ground. Which poses the question as to why, after the rain of the last few days, there is so much surface water around here in the Midlands, which looks to be a part of the most at risk part of the map?
Does the UK infrastructure not allow transfer of water between regions on this tiny little island of ours?
Has anyone in any government department got the faintest idea of what they talking about?
Lunchtime weather forecast on Radio 4 (yes, I know, what do I expect) was for an inch of rain in the South and South-east. No doubt by supper time there'll be floods.
Bear in mind, please, that, for the Environment Agency, this is a very astute observation.
That reminds me of an ancient German farmers proverb:
'If the cock crows on the dungheap, the weather will change. Or not.'
(Rough translation by myself ...)
I'd asked the squirrels in my yard their opinion except they are too busy keeping warm. Pity that.
Old farmers addage:-
"It is never dry when it rains, and it never rains when it's dry"
Why the image of Cliffords Tower in York? There are no dafs flowering there at the moment. Surely an image of the daffodils mentioned would be better?
Surely we all know what a daffodil looks like?
Whatever.
Rain, lots and lots of rain, bits of rain, not much precipitation................ we don't know......................... MEANS.... drought or maybe not.....
Climate scientists reported after an intensive and in-depth
liquid lunchstudy....................A spokesperson for the Environment Agency then said.....blah blah blah.
Dontcha jus' luv Quangos?
Ross H,
More BBC scientific incompetence. Not sure about the Clifford Tower, but early-flowering daffodils are bred to need no vernalisation, so if you plant them at the right time, they'll flower in November. Just like clockwork.
Sometimes you don't see them though - last year they got covered in snow...
Justice4Rinka said-
"If things don't change they'll stay the same." :)
I think Eisenhower was supposed to have said, "Things are more like they are now than they ever have been."
Haven't figured out if that meant he was a climate change denier or not.
Martin Brumby:
Sorry to be pedantic but your assertion should properly read:
50% of their prognoses turn out to be worse than the median!
Keep in mind the counter intuitive that the summer is the UK wet season, although this is not very marked. Yes it is damp, grey, yuk during the winter but actual rainfall is low. (warm air holds more water)
This might be of interest
http://www.colc.co.uk/cambridge/cambridge/climate.htm
A failure of autumn rains might be a more appropriate subject and there is a reason.
The reason is an ongoing unusual weather pattern where there has been prolonged high pressure over Europe and Atlantic lows bouncing off, passing north east. In consequence Scotland, Ireland etc. are soggy and the south east rather dry. This also has led to southern and maritime warmer air tending to keep the south east milder than usual. (with alarmist squawking)
Could be this is akin to blocking highs which during winter give us deep cold, during high summer a heat wave, and late autumn early winter perhaps what we have had. We seem to be in a prolonged phase of blocking highs. (the risk of a very cold winter snap is I think elevated)
I've not done so but there are some very long catalogues of weather, where I would put money on the pattern having happened before. Similar thing, the unusual cold early winter last year has happened before but the clear message from there is two exceptional cold snaps doesn't happen: is usually cold at the normal time (odd that) but occasionally comes early then it doesn't come later.
I commend this site as a good eye on the useful picture, which is broader than the myopic Met Office view http://www.meteox.com/forecastloop.aspx?type=0
From that you can do your own forecasting, including further ahead than the Met Office show these days, with of course the usual beware unstable forecasts.
I hope the good bishop doesn't mind a couple of links, walk the talk, forecast is exactly what I did of the early Alpine snow a week ahead, looked stable so I risked it.
http://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2011/10/02/october-alpine-snow-what-will-the-winter-20112012-bring/
and followup
http://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2011/10/09/oh-yes-forecast-heavy-snow-is-falling/
Not my blog but I help out sometimes.
Back to the old days, want it done, do it yourself. Weather is a case where the broader picture from a collection of met services, some rather good, might be more apt.
Huh! Seems to be raining plenty here in the east of the South-West (or far west of the South-East, I.e. on the border between the two). Had an escaped herd of cows in the garden yesterday and the lawn is well churned up. If the ground is dry their hooves don't make much of an impression. I am sure a lot of the problem is demand for water and the amounts extracted by the water companies who explain thet they are legally obliged to supply water to people - rationing not permitted. Do the power companies have the same obligation? If yes, it could be interesting when the blackouts commence........
If wishes were fishes my shark would have eaten Phil Jones.
My mother once consulted a fortunate teller for fun. She was told if she weren't in an accident and didn't contract a fatal disease she would live a long life.
RE: BiddyB
" Seems to be raining plenty here in the east of the South-West (or far west of the South-East, I.e. on the border between the two)."
Sounds suspiciously like Hampshire/Dorset border to me...and yes as I drove home from work tonight it is persisting down. Claiming impending drought was almost guaranteed to open the heavens.
Well they are simple fools check out the Environment agency brains on www.northmill avoncliff.co.uk. the EA story this is a story set to RUN
How did we ever manage to get through a whole day unscathed while the Giant Brains of the EA were on strike?
Must have just been pure luck that humanity survived......
I have to say that some years ago the Environment Agency had a booth at the Fordingbridge fair in Hampshire concerning the new flood defences they were proposing. I went to ask them about their proposals and actually was pleasantly surprised how they talked in terms of 20 year and 100 year flood events and never once mentioned climate change. They simply talked in terms of recurring flood events that happen periodically and quite naturally. Quite refreshing really.
I'm headed to York tomorrow evening, and will check Clifford's Tower to confirm whether or not this is more fakery by the BBC - unless Ross is already there and has observed directly... in which case I'll just hit the pub and get ratted.. :o)
Re thinkingScientist. Almost spot on - Wiltshire Dorset Somerset. Have just driven home after fine dinner and skies clear as a bell now. Fabulous stars. Ground still very wet though. Thank god no work today, just wrestling with a presentation document. Anyone know how to transfer a PDF file into PowerPoint or Publisher. Am complete novice at this stuff and have major deadline looming. Going back to uni after 33 years is not funny. (I may be a complete technophobe but at least I can spell and my grammar's not bad, unlike some professors.)
@ Simon Hopkinson
Head straight to the pub (but it's the weekend so you'll have to find a quiet one, unless a pub run is your thing. I always champion the Ackhorn). There are Zero daffodils on Cliffords Tower at the moment.
I had to double check when I got home, I was beginning to doubt myself. :)
Hey guys, at least they were honest and told the truth to best of their ability. Baby step, but a start!
Sound fx - palm meeting forehead... 10:13 PM | Latimer Alder hits the nail on the head... it was a non striker - evidently somebody far too senior to wander about waving a placard and probably with a fat paid up pension showing that they can still mix it with the media :-)