On my travels

I'm off to Germany today, where I will be speaking at the EIKE conference. I wonder if there will be anything to discuss? :-)

I'm back on Sunday. Someone will be moderating the comments threads in my absence.

Comments

[Richard Drake]

I wonder if there will be anything to discuss?

Can't think of anything at all. But best of luck.

[Foxgooose]

Bon Voyage Bish - sock it to 'em.

[EddieO]

Interesting that the BBC are covering this story
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-15858603
Climate sensitivity is not as high as we thought - well as high as they thought perhaps.
How did this reporter get it past the gatekeepers ahead of Durban?

[mat]

Happy hunting !

[GrantB]

Have you offset your .. er .. emissions?

[Justice4Rinka]

Cheering news from the emissions markets as carbon prices collapse with no price floor in sight:

LONDON, Nov 24 (Reuters) - European Union carbon permits and U.N.-backed credits collapsed to record lows on Thursday, extending this week's sharp price slide as fears of a slowing economy sapped demand in the markets that are heavily supplied with emissions units.

It was also a signal that market participants are losing confidence in the flagging EU carbon market, the world's biggest cap-trade scheme, traders and analysts said.

This latest crash could not have come at a worse time. In just a few days a U.N. climate summit in South Africa will resume work on a new globally binding pact to cut emissions.

Investors are already nervous about the future of carbon markets, given the uncertainty around when a new climate pact will emerge and what trading mechanisms will operate under it.

"Confidence is at an absolute minimum. It's the macro-economic picture and the whole sentiment is not too good," said a carbon trader at a financial institution.

Front-year carbon permits called EU Allowances (EUAs) closed 6.6 percent lower at 7.91 euros ($10.54) a tonne, after touching an all-time low of 7.80 euros earlier.

"There's room to go down to 7 euros," said Matteo Mazzoni, carbon analyst at Nomisma Energia in Italy, adding that 7.70 euros could be the next support level.

Some 11,000 power generators and industrial plants from 30 European countries take part in the region's emissions trading scheme. It covers around half of the bloc's carbon emissions.

Benchmark U.N.-issued carbon credits, which come from accredited emission reduction projects in developing countries, closed down almost 8 percent at 5.43 euros, after hitting a new record low of 5.30 euros.

FREEFALL

Carbon prices have shed more than half their value since June, as the euro zone's worsening debt crisis choked demand for emissions permits.

The EU carbon market is also oversupplied with hundreds of millions of permits, and some analysts don't expect demand to outpace supply until 2020.

"The oversupply seems to be overwhelming," the trader said.

Electricity generators, which are the main drivers of demand, will unlikely be big buyers of carbon allowances until after 2012, particularly if their emissions fall due to a severe economic slump.

The EU Commission said it would not comment on current carbon prices.

Speaking in Brussels on Thursday, Denmark's climate, energy and building minister Martin Lidegaard said: "Carbon prices are low because there is a crisis. This is a serious problem that threatens stability for investors."

The minister added that the EU Commission would be looking at ways to support prices, declining to give further details.

UK manufacturers' organisation EEF urged the EU to "overcome its obsession with cap-and-trade as the beacon for tackling climate change" and should be open to other measures or risk being sidelined at U.N. talks.

Recent price falls have prompted five sets of carbon analysts to reduce their price forecasts in the past two weeks.

Point Carbon cut its EU carbon price forecast on Thursday for the third phase of Europe's Emission Trading Scheme (2013-2020) by 45 percent to 12 euros.

The collapse has also reignited talk of price floors.

Last week, UBS said the carbon price could bottom close to 3 euros, but other analysts said there is no real floor, especially if the EU enters another recession.

[sHx]

According to my own latest research of the said emails,

1- Elvis is dead (no mention)

2- god is not dead (he owns the planet according to climate scientists)

and

3- Jesus Christ (lots of mentions) is bigger than Beatles (no mention).

[Buffy Minton]

Going business or cattle class, Bish? Remember - don't bend the rules! 3693.txt

cc: Keith Briffa , Frank Oldfield, Elke Bergius
date: Wed, 22 Nov 2000 13:38:12 +0100
from: Keith Alverson
subject: business class flight
to: jansen

Dear Eyestein,

We have received your request for PAGES reimbursement for your travel to
the HIHOL meeting in Avignon. Unfortunately, PAGES has a strict policy of
not refunding business class travel. This policy has been bent for you once,
after the fact and with *very much* difficulty, at the CLIVAR meeting in
Venice since you stated that you were unable to find economy seat. However,
we cannot bend the rule a second time in a row. It will be absolutely
impossible to clear this expense with our financial auditors at the
University of Bern and the Swiss National Science Foundation, especially as
your travel costs are more than three times the cost of any other European
participant at the meeting.

The conference organizer, Keith Briffa, informed us before the conference
that your expenses would be 300 GB pounds. Therefore, what I suggest is that
we send you that amount, and you seek another source of funding for the
additional amount. I am sorry about any inconvenience that this unavoidable
decision may cause you.

Keith Alverson

[Green Sand]

Break a leg Bish!

[phil]

UEA's 'strategic alliance' with Goldman-Sachs:

http://www.ecowho.com/foia.php?file=4092.txt&search=Goldman-Sachs

date: Mon, 18 May 1998 10:00:38 +010 ???
from: Trevor Davies <???@uea.ac.uk>
subject: goldman-sachs
to: ???@uea,???@uea,???@uea

Jean,

We (Mike H) have done a modest amount of work on degree-days for G-S. They
now want to extend this. They are involved in dealing in the developing
energy futures market.

G-S is the sort of company that we might be looking for a 'strategic
alliance' with. I suggest the four of us meet with ?? (forgotten his name)
for an hour on the afternoon of Friday 12 June (best guess for Phil & Jean
- he needs a date from us). Thanks.

Trevor

++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Professor Trevor D. Davies
Climatic Research Unit
University of East Anglia
Norwich NR4 7TJ
United Kingdom

Tel. +44 ???
Fax. +44 ???
++++++++++++++++++++++++++

[Jim]

There is a very amusing exchange in 2939 :

....there is so much deliberate distortion for political gain and so much soft money riding on the issue that I am doubting the reliability of almost everything. Climate is not my field, but teaching scientific method is, and I need something to hang my hat on when students ask me questions about current issues. Right now I haven't got that and I suspect that you are also troubled. The entire issue is starting to remind me of Eugenics research in Germany in the 30s.

Response:
To think that good scientists would need to bias their results to get funding strikes me as ludicrous......Any attempt to "fake" or distort results would soon be exposed.

[Buffy Minton]

How Science Works! Part 94: Neutrality

date: Mon, 03 Nov 1997 18:25:44 +0100
from: Cherry Farrow <CFarrow@wwfnet.org>
subject: kyoto -Reply
to: m.hulme

Hello Mike - two thinhs - we can help you
with politicians - our two parliamentary
(public affairs ) officers here are talking with
MPs constantly on this one - adn could
come up with a suitable list..ref CLimate
action Network - we're part of that umbrella
organisation. I know delia well (she used to
be WWF) and is now with them in Brussels.
Obviously, given the money we've
contributed to the process I would rather
that we release the letter to them AFTER the
press - that's how we would normally do it -
they will then go ahead under their own
letterhead - If you want to retain "neutrality"
then it would be better that they pick it up
separately than that you release it to them,
which would align you with 122 NGOs...but
it is right and proper they should have it at
some time....We can help you with the
database of journos of course - obvious
ones are Paul Brown, Nick Schoon, Charles
Clover, Fred Pearce, Geoffrey lean Jonathan
Leake etc., and Julian Rush or Andy Veitch
at Ch4 news - remember they have to "sell"
it to their news editors. which means they
need time to write the story too - if you
want a real ppiece with real analysis then
give them lead in time under an embargo -
and remember certain of them cannot be
trusted not to break the embargo (we can
tell you who!)...we ought to talk at the
beginning of next week perhaps?

[Buffy Minton]

How science works! Part 94: Peer review confidentiality

4937.txt

date: Thu, 5 Jun 2003 12:09:04 -0400
from: Edward Cook <
subject: REALLY URGENT for you too!!!
to: Keith Briffa

<x-flowed>
Hi Keith,

This is not terribly kosher, but I am sending you the paper I am
reviewing that attempts to destroy dendroclimatology as presently
done, and my present review of it. This does not have to be sent in
until next week sometime, so there is time for you to add any
comments. Doing this is justified in my view because the authors use
your Tornetrask reconstruction as the main whipping boy. The paper is
rather mathematical in parts, but the bias they show in condemning
the standard method of climate reconstruction is pretty apparent. I
don't know if there is a hidden agenda or just an effort on their
part to show us dumb asses how to do it right! Anyway, give me a call
at home tomorrow if you wish, but certainly read what I have sent you
and please recommend changes or additions.

Cheers,

Ed

P.S. Please keep this confidential for now since it is a paper under review.
--
==================================
Dr. Edward R. Cook
Doherty Senior Scholar and
Director, Tree-Ring Laboratory
Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory
Palisades, New York 10964 USA

[diogenes]

Buffy

You should add that to the list on Climate Audit of emails re journal reviews

[Buffy Minton]

will do!

[Jiminy Cricket]

@buffy that is a gem...

it is "Worse than we thought"...;-)

[Pete H]

Bish, enjoy the beers there and be sure to collect a few decorative beer glasses to remind you of the trip. Most hostelry owners will give you the small glasses for free when you ask....after you have downed a few ;-)

[Viv Evans]

Going to the EIKE conference? Nice one, Bish!
I hope you'll have time to sample the famous Berlin night life.

Please convey our appreciation and thanks to the EIKE participants. Those from the last one like Prof Courtillot, I'd happily embrace ...

[lapogus]

Have a good time Bish, and make sure you try the Hefeweizen. You can bring me back a bottle if you like!

[sHx]

This is not terribly kosher, but I am sending you the paper I am
reviewing that attempts to destroy dendroclimatology as presently
done, and my present review of it. This does not have to be sent in
until next week sometime, so there is time for you to add any
comments. Doing this is justified in my view because the authors use
your Tornetrask reconstruction as the main whipping boy. The paper is
rather mathematical in parts, but the bias they show in condemning
the standard method of climate reconstruction is pretty apparent. I
don't know if there is a hidden agenda or just an effort on their
part to show us dumb asses how to do it right! Anyway, give me a call at home tomorrow if you wish, but certainly read what I have sent you and please recommend changes or additions.

Instant classic!

[hunter]

One thing for sure- we need to see more context in these e-mails.
Fragments of exchanges are not really fair to any of the sides in this.
If I was on the team and knew my hands were clean and this stuff was making me look bad, I would do some data dumping myself and crush everything.
That they have not so far does imply a lot, but does not prove much.

[Pharos]

Buffy

We can help you with the
database of journos of course - obvious
ones are Paul Brown, Nick Schoon, Charles
Clover, Fred Pearce, Geoffrey lean Jonathan
Leake etc., and Julian Rush or Andy Veitch
at Ch4 news

And we can add a few more.

[Pharos]

Geoffrey Lean on the Telegraph is getting what he deserves in the comments underneath his excruciatingly pathetic effort to defend the 'cause'

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/environment/8915689/Climategate-II-the-scientists-fight-back.html

[Rick Bradford]

No doubt the idea of immediately holding a press conference to demonstrate transparency was a tactic drummed into Jones et al by Neil Wallis and Outside Organisation...?