Bishop Hill Met Office privately predicted cold winter
Jan 4, 2011 Climate: MetOffice Climate: Surface The Mail has a story that the Met Office told the cabinet to expect a cold winter. This was back in October apparently. However, as we know, the public were not told of this, apparently because the Met Office's research had suggested that there was no demand for seasonal forecasts. I'm sure most readers think their reticence was more to do with the fiasco over 2009's barbeque summer.
The story, which was sourced from Roger Harrabin at the BBC, seems to tally with the claim in the Quarmby audit that a Met Office forecast about the cold winter was issued at the end of October. However, as we also know, the Met Office website at the time seemed to be suggesting a warm winter, and nobody has actually seen the cold forecast.
All very intriguing.
In related news, RP Jnr considers the Met Office's attempts to make assessment of its forecasting ability harder.
Bishop Hill
Autonomous Mind has further thoughts.
Reader Comments (59)
Someone is going under the bus. Pity it won't be the whole lot of them: Harrabin, the BBC, the MetOffice, and both cheeks. .
the Tele has Steven Swinford spinning the same story. note how the Tele leaves out something important in this Corbyn quote, which surely was "met office has got it repeatedly WRONG":
4 Jan: UK Tele: Steven Swinford: Met Office 'kept winter forecast secret from public'
The Met Office knew that Britain was facing an early and exceptionally cold winter but failed to warn the public, hampering preparations for some of the coldest weather on record.
Piers Corbyn, the owner of WeatherAction, an independent forecaster, said: “This is a step in the right direction. The Met Office has got it repeatedly and yet it remains the public service forecaster…
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/topics/weather/8237397/Met-Office-kept-winter-forecast-secret-from-public.html
the above article is in "weather" section without comments being allowed. look at the kind of thing Swinford writes, such as his latest on the England cricket team!
29 Dec: UK Tele: Cricket: The Sprinkler Dance – from locker room to dance floor
By Richard Alleyne and Steven Swinford
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/8230385/The-Sprinkler-Dance-from-locker-room-to-dance-floor.html
it was hilarious to hear recently that the Govt was considering fines for airports for not being prepared for the snow. Swinford was on that story too. surely if the govt privately knew the Met's real forecast, important players such as airports and let's say farmers organisations should have been warned!
27 Dec: UK Tele: By Steven Swinford: Theresa Villiers: government knew Heathrow was not prepared for snow
The aviation minister admitted that the government knew about Heathrow’s inadequate preparations for winter as she confirmed that airports could face fines when passengers have their travel disrupted.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/topics/weather/8225790/Theresa-Villiers-government-knew-Heathrow-was-not-prepared-for-snow.html
Swinford has in the past reported on cricket coach, bob woolmer's death in jamaica and soccer, so why he'd be chosen to do the Met Office fantasy story is beyond me. it is all unravelling, isn't it?
There is an interesting interview in today's FT . The interviewee is Gary Lydiate who is chief executive of Kilfrost, the Haltwhistle based, privately owned company which manufactures and supplies aircraft de-icing fluid to "more than 50 countires in five continents".
Mr Lydiate who is said to have a keen interest in meteorology, which is essential for forward planning in his business, is reported as saying: "The winters are going to get colder for the next few decades." "The oceans are beginning to get colder. It is wonderful news for Kilfrost."
I wonder which meteorological forecasting service he uses?
Well, I'm thinking of the burst pipes as well and the fact that there is a push by politicians for heads to roll. Of course, the infrastructure could not have been upgraded instantly to cope with a severe freeze, but measures could have been put in place to cope with the likely problems ensuing. Same goes for the airports. It is undeniable that in October the Met Office produced probability maps for November-December-January showing a strong likelihood of higher than average temperatures, with expected temperature anomaly around +0.5 to +1.0degC above normal, and precipitation below normal. As far as Northern Ireland, Scotland and South-East England are concerned, the probability that temperatures would be 'well-below-normal' was given in October as <5%. In other words, the Met Office were predicting with >95% certainty (which for forecasting is about as good as it gets) that the infrastructure would not take a knock. Even as late as November, when early winter was upon us, the Met Office were still citing the probability of 'well-below-normal' temperatures for Scotland and Northern Ireland as between 5% and 25%, so still unlikely. The evidence is still on their website. If the government actually knew something different then it would be unconscionable for them to blame public and private bodies for lack of preparation. And the Met Office, after all, is an arm of the government, being part of the Ministry of Defence.
SFT
Again the question should be asked how was the Met Office able to forecast in private a colder than normal winter when their own seasonal models were saying otherwise and that the Met Office's own boss, Julia Slingo was reported in Nature in saying that the biggest obstacle to better seasonal predictions was the lack of computing power.
It simply does not make any sense. Are the Met Office covering up their own incompetence with a lie?
H/T Erik Sloneker comment on WUWT Met Office post
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/01/04/the-met-office-bullhockey/#comments
"Straight from the Met Office web site describing “what we do”:
•Warn people of extreme weather to mitigate its impacts — contributing to the protection of life, property and infrastructure."
Are we not "the people" [of England, who have not spoken yet... ] so why were we not told?
Another commenter said that the Met Office is not subject to FOI because it is part of the Ministry of Defence- is that so? More Chesterton...."It may be we are meant to mark with our riot and our rest, God's scorn for all men governing..."
Surely if the Met Office advised the public with information they knew was incorrect (ie deliberately lied to the public) they should be answering a few questions as to their suitability to receive funding from that public.
We used to be able to plan our work two or three days ahead which is important to us otherwise we get the wrong plant, materials & men in the wrong places & we waste our time.
Over the last few years the forecast from the Metoffice is got worse & worse until now we have to leave looking at the forecast until early in the morning for that particular day. We then have to telephone around to try to schedule our day that very morning. Then we have to phone our customers to tell them what we are going to do that day. It is nuts!
The Metoffice can't even get the forecast right 24hours in advance so don't even deserve the title Weather Forecasters let alone the vast sums of money we pay to them from our taxes etc.
We are actively looking for another forecaster so we can run efficiently & not look stupid to our customers. (Having said this our customer know what we are up against & have the same complaint themselves).c etc.
The only explanation for the forecasts coming off the rails like this is the data that is being collected is filtered differently for some reason. Something needs to be done & fast before we loose our Metoffice.
Reading the comments, I can imagine there are many "questions without notice" that an inquiring mind might ask the responsible minister on the Parliament floor. Perhaps, the GW Policy Foundation people know a few MPs. Questions and answers would make a great blog read, too.