Bishop Hill Cold weather probe?
Jan 10, 2011 Climate: MetOffice Politicians The House of Commons Transport Committee looks set to probe the weather chaos this winter, in an apparent response to GWPF's call for such a probe.
Louise Ellman, as chairman of the Transport Select committee, has received official requests to launch a wide-ranging inquiry into why snowfalls up to the Christmas/New Year break crippled the rail and road system.
If given the go-ahead it will focus on the coalition government’s alleged failure to respond to Met Office warnings of severe weather.
That led to weeks of turmoil with trains cancelled, motorways shut and thousands of travellers stranded in appalling weather.
The story is slightly odd, as it seems as if no decision has yet been taken on whether to hold an inquiry, but one assumes that the source, the Liverpool Echo, has some sort of word that it is likely to happen.
(H/T Benny Peiser)
Reader Comments (31)
I do believe we have the Met Office forecast at hand.
Ted on an earlier post has highlighted that the National Grid's Winter Outlook Report - 2010/11, see here, reveals the so-called 'private' Met Office forecast.
http://www.nationalgrid.com/NR/rdonlyres/9721EF19-2BA8-4DBD-880D-90406603C176/43423/WinterOutlook2010_11.pdf
Quoting directly from the report;
Summary
Winter 2010/11 Outlook – Gas
7. The Met Office have now ceased formal publication of their long term winter weather
forecast, however their website continues to provide some long term analyses. For
the period of December through to February the data presented suggests a higher
probability of above average temperatures rather than below average temperatures.
......................
Section A - Outlook for Winter 2010/11
Gas
Met Office Weather Forecast
25. The Met Office have now ceased publication of their long term winter weather
forecast however their website1 continues to provide long term analyses. For the
period of December through to February the data presented suggests:
• a 60 – 80% probability of above normal temperatures
• a 20 – 40% probability of near normal temperatures
• a 0 – 20% probability of below normal temperatures
26. In terms of UK precipitation their forecasts are weighted towards above average. For
Europe average temps are typically 0.5-1.5°C above average. For North America
average temps are up to 2° above average except for a cooler west coast
As events unfolded the Met Office forcast turned out to be inaccurate. At best, the Met Office could only argue that they predicted a 1 in 5 risk of below normal temperatures.
It also highlights the point that all supercomputing will do is improve the precision of a forecast but the not the accuracy.
What we have read and heard since is that the Met Office now stands accused of spinning an inaccurate winter forecast, given in private, as an accurate one to the public. Such mendacity by the Met Office will only increase doubts about the organisation's competence.
'Ewan McCallum, chief metrologist at the Met Office, said an “amber” warning had been sent out as part of forward planning.'
An amber warming, so what percentage of probability does amber fall into?
The committee might like to look at Heathrow Airport's press release of November 29th:
"Heathrow's army of snow ploughs stretch their wings as snow bites... Heathrow's snow team has been working for months to ensure that the UK's hub airport will once again be prepared for the onset of winter."
Ho ho ho.
(H/t Private Eye)
Further National Grid Winter Outlooks;
2009/10
http://www.nationalgrid.com/NR/rdonlyres/CC8BC058-9F70-49D8-B991-812B9B94E33B/42011/Winter_Outlook_Report_200910_01102009.pdf
Met Office Weather Forecast
22. At the end of September the Met Office issued its early indications for winter
2009/101. They report that ‘preliminary indications continue to suggest that winter
temperatures are likely to be near or above average over much of Europe including
the UK. Winter 2009/10 is likely to be milder than last year for the UK, but there is
still a 1 in 7 chance of a cold winter’.
2008/09
http://www.nationalgrid.com/NR/rdonlyres/0CA133C5-4BC3-4442-883D-8D298335ACB4/35402/Winter_Outlook_2008_final.pdf
Winter Security Assessment
104. Figure A.23 shows average October – March temperatures for the past 80 years.
The chart also shows a forecast based on a 30 year moving average
105. The chart clearly shows the trend of warmer winters since the mid 1980s. (Winter temps forecasted for the next 10 winters to be on average 1 to 1.5C higher than the period between 1930 and 1990.)
This is the National Grid's Responsible Business statement:
"National Grid is committed to working responsibly in the communities where it operates and playing its role in safeguarding the global environment for the future. These are long-term responsibilities that must be fulfilled in conjunction with our duty to create value for our shareholders. Delivering sustainable value depends on the trust and confidence of all of our stakeholders, and this can only be earned by conducting our business responsibly.
Climate change has emerged as society’s biggest ever environmental challenge and it is fundamentally changing people’s expectations of companies. To address this challenge, National Grid is adopting a low carbon business model and is actively supporting the development of low carbon energy markets. As part of our strategy, we are committed to reducing our own greenhouse gas emissions by 80% ahead of the 2050 target set by the UK government; to working with legislators and regulators to reshape energy markets; and to help and support our customers, employees and suppliers in changing their behaviours so as to be more considerate of the environment."
Interesting the use of the word 'responsible'. You would think that for a key strategic business that the National Grid would strive to ensure that their winter forecasts in their Winter Outlook reports were accurate as they could possibily be. You would also think that the Met Office and the National Grid would both strive to ensure that the information they provide, be it privately, on websites and in public documents were as accurate as it could possibly be. It is clear that the Met Office must have known that the National Grid were using Met's Global Long-range Probability Maps as actual forecasts and this probability analysis IS the basis of the 'private winter forecast' given by the Met Office to the UK government.
Both the Met Office and the National Grid have acted irresponsibility.
To correct a formatting problem.
I do believe we have the Met Office forecast at hand.
Ted on an earlier post has highlighted that the National Grid's Winter Outlook Report - 2010/11, see here, reveals the so-called 'private' Met Office forecast.
http://www.nationalgrid.com/NR/rdonlyres/9721EF19-2BA8-4DBD-880D-90406603C176/43423/WinterOutlook2010_11.pdf
Quoting directly from the report;
Summary
Winter 2010/11 Outlook – Gas
7. The Met Office have now ceased formal publication of their long term winter weather
forecast, however their website continues to provide some long term analyses. For
the period of December through to February the data presented suggests a higher
probability of above average temperatures rather than below average temperatures.
......................
Section A - Outlook for Winter 2010/11
Gas
Met Office Weather Forecast
25. The Met Office have now ceased publication of their long term winter weather
forecast however their website1 continues to provide long term analyses. For the
period of December through to February the data presented suggests:
• a 60 – 80% probability of above normal temperatures
• a 20 – 40% probability of near normal temperatures
• a 0 – 20% probability of below normal temperatures
26. In terms of UK precipitation their forecasts are weighted towards above average. For
Europe average temps are typically 0.5-1.5°C above average. For North America
average temps are up to 2° above average except for a cooler west coast
As events unfolded the Met Office forcast turned out to be inaccurate. At best, the Met Office could only argue that they predicted a 1 in 5 risk of below normal temperatures.
It also highlights the point that all supercomputing will do is improve the precision of a forecast but the not the accuracy.
What we have read and heard since is that the Met Office now stands accused of spinning an inaccurate winter forecast, given in private, as an accurate one to the public. Such mendacity by the Met Office will only increase doubts about the organisation's competence.
Further National Grid Winter Outlooks;
2009/10
http://www.nationalgrid.com/NR/rdonlyres/CC8BC058-9F70-49D8-B991-812B9B94E33B/42011/Winter_Outlook_Report_200910_01102009.pdf
Met Office Weather Forecast
22. At the end of September the Met Office issued its early indications for winter
2009/101. They report that ‘preliminary indications continue to suggest that winter
temperatures are likely to be near or above average over much of Europe including
the UK. Winter 2009/10 is likely to be milder than last year for the UK, but there is
still a 1 in 7 chance of a cold winter’.
2008/09
http://www.nationalgrid.com/NR/rdonlyres/0CA133C5-4BC3-4442-883D-8D298335ACB4/35402/Winter_Outlook_2008_final.pdf
Winter Security Assessment
104. Figure A.23 shows average October – March temperatures for the past 80 years.
The chart also shows a forecast based on a 30 year moving average
105. The chart clearly shows the trend of warmer winters since the mid 1980s.
According to this report winter temps forecasted for the next 10 winters to be on average 1 to 1.5C higher than the period between 1930 and 1990.
This is the National Grid's Responsible Business statement:
National Grid is committed to working responsibly in the communities where it operates and playing its role in safeguarding the global environment for the future. These are long-term responsibilities that must be fulfilled in conjunction with our duty to create value for our shareholders. Delivering sustainable value depends on the trust and confidence of all of our stakeholders, and this can only be earned by conducting our business responsibly.
Climate change has emerged as society’s biggest ever environmental challenge and it is fundamentally changing people’s expectations of companies. To address this challenge, National Grid is adopting a low carbon business model and is actively supporting the development of low carbon energy markets. As part of our strategy, we are committed to reducing our own greenhouse gas emissions by 80% ahead of the 2050 target set by the UK government; to working with legislators and regulators to reshape energy markets; and to help and support our customers, employees and suppliers in changing their behaviours so as to be more considerate of the environment.
Interesting the use of the word 'responsible'. You would think that for a key strategic business that the National Grid would strive to ensure that their winter forecasts in their Winter Outlook reports were accurate as they could possibily be. You would also think that the Met Office and the National Grid would both strive to ensure that the information they provide, be it privately, on websites and in public documents were as accurate as it could possibly be. It is clear that the Met Office must have known that the National Grid were using Met's Global Long-range Probability Maps as actual forecasts and this probability analysis IS the basis of the 'private winter forecast' given by the Met Office to the UK government.
Both the Met Office and the National Grid have acted irresponsibility.
From further within the 2010/11 report page 46:
159. The 1 in 20 peak demand forecast for 2010/11 is 59.0GW. The 1 in 20 demand
peak represents the high demand scenario and to put this in context relate to
temperatures of -1.8 ºC at 1700 hrs and -3.4 ºC at 2100 hrs. These demand figures
relate to GB demand only and do not include any flows to France or Northern
Ireland across interconnectors.
160. A 1 in 50 cold level demand scenario has not been presented as this is unlikely to
occur based on recent history. The normal business process forecasts are based on
a weekly weather based on a 30 year average.
I feel all warm and safe now.
Highest demands so far for winter triad period 1 November 2010 to 28 February 2011
2010-12-07, 17:00
60.085 GW
2010-12-20, 17:00
59.878 GW
2011-01-06, 17:00
56.172 GW
Mac, Lord Beaverbrook,
The Met Office predictions highlight something I've been concerned about for a while - the concentration on average conditions and projected average conditions at the expense of dealing with the real world. The example of the National Grid is a good one. Average conditions are all but useless on a day to day basis - what matters is how much energy is needed now and in the hours ahead and how much generating capacity is available to meet that need - but something *is* distracting them from that duty and the only game in town is combating climate change.
Rather than wanting plentiful, cheap and reliable energy with a suitable reserve of power they are cutting things to the bone, to the point where we to be co-opted into the real time balancing of the National Grid.
It is Figure A.23 that intrigues me - it is a past history of winter temps plus a forecast of winter temps 10 years hence. It looks like it is actually produced by the National Grid on weather data that they actually keep themselves. So a 10 year winter forecast based on a 30 year moving average is the method the National Grid uses.
So we have a National Grid forecast, dating from 2008, that predicts warmer winters over the next 10 years coupled with the Met Office seasonal winter forecasts/probabilties that too have predicted warmer winters dating from the same year.
Winters 2008/09, 2009/10 and 2010/11 have proven to be much colder than the predictions. The forecasts were all wrong.
If such flawed seasonal-weather analysis and organisational stances based on climate change have been replicated right across the energy industry, transport industry, national and local government it is little wonder the UK is so ill-prepared for cold winters and all the chaos that it causes.
Reading the above information from the Met Office appears to be akin to reading tea leaves, with something in every forecast for everyone. Clearly, the see themselves as the Oracle of Delphi. What they need is a larger supply of tea leaves instead of a shiny new computer.
207. The ability of the markets to operate in a manner consistent with our assumptions
remains largely untested given the succession of mild winters experienced in recent years and the plentiful supplies of cheap gas in 2009/10, which have necessitated
only a low requirement for gas demand-side response. In particular, the ability of
the electricity market to switch to a significantly reduced gas demand will be entirely
dependant on the price signals triggering the appropriate response.
I wonder if this paragraph will be in the next report.
"A 1 in 50 cold level demand scenario has not been presented as this is unlikely to
occur based on recent history"
What a bizarre statement! Is it 1 in 50 or not? And have we got there yet..? :-)
It seems from the article that the inquiry will focus on the failure of gov. to act on the secret warning, implying that the warning did exist. If FOI requests are successful it will be interesting to see the date and accuracy of the forecast, probably pinched from Piers just in case.
BTW energy by fuel source can be accessed at www.geog.ox.ac.uk/NETA.html
The wind figures for the last 5 weeks or so are scary! (At times no info is available but it seems to come back eventually)
Sorry, energy site address www.geog.ox.ac.uk/~dcurtis/NETA.html
An amber warning, so what percentage of probability does amber fall into?
According to the MET office weather warnings overview then
Green = no severe weather
Yellow = be aware
Amber = be prepared
Red = Take action
So an Amber warning to the government in October would tell them to be prepared for severe weather over the next three months but action is not required, allowing ministers to presume that as preparations for winter were well under way that there was nothing to worry about.
Aren't we glad that the MO has such a good system of putting over their forcasting excellance.
Highest demands so far for winter triad period 1 November 2010 to 28 February 2011
2010-12-07, 17:00
60.085 GW
2010-12-20, 17:00
59.878 GW
2011-01-06, 17:00
56.172 GW
That's odd because I was watching http://www.nationalgrid.com/uk/Electricity/Data/Realtime/Demand/demand24.htm on Dec 6th 2010 and peak demand reached at least 59.7GW at 5pm. I wonder why they discarded the 6th December in favour of the 6th January?
BTW, at 5pm on the 6th December 2010 the total output from all GB metered wind turbines was 193MW, and at 5pm on Dec 7th metered wind was only producing 123MW. On the 20th December wind was only producing 61MW. The peak demand in winter 2009-10 (December 29th) was 57.7GW, and wind was producing 147MW. Do you think they will see a pattern here?
What a shame that the Transport Select Committee is no longer chaired by Gwyneth Dunwoody.
Not sure if there were some crossed lines here, but this Reuters report - http://uk.reuters.com/article/idUKLDE6961BG20101007 - on winter 2009-10 states:
In the power sector, peak demand levels are expected to be
slightly lower than last year's at 57.7 gigawatts (GW), while
available power generation is expected to reach 66.3 GW, the
grid operator said in its final winter outlook report.
This does appear to contradict the what Lord Beaverbrook has found in the 2010/11 report (page 46):
159. The 1 in 20 peak demand forecast for 2010/11 is 59.0GW. The 1 in 20 demand
peak represents the high demand scenario and to put this in context relate to
temperatures of -1.8 ºC at 1700 hrs and -3.4 ºC at 2100 hrs. These demand figures
relate to GB demand only and do not include any flows to France or Northern
Ireland across interconnectors.
160. A 1 in 50 cold level demand scenario has not been presented as this is unlikely to
occur based on recent history. The normal business process forecasts are based on
a weekly weather based on a 30 year average.
As winter 2009-10 was extreme (it was officially the coldest December and January in Scotland since 1916) I get the impression the grid guys were going along with the Met Office's milder winter bollocks, and had estimated a peak demand of 55-56GW for this winter.
Just to add to the above from the NETA information
6/12/10 Total 59043 Wind 308
7/12/10 Total 59302 Wind 144
20/12/ Total 59504 Wind 61
These were peak demand for those days 5-6 pm. The rest of the 'wind' data is just as enlightening both as a % of total and perhaps more importantly as a % of wind installed capacity.
Really pleased that Huhne is in charge of energy; I'm sure he'll fix everything.
Sorry, I'm back.
Lapogus, of course there's no pattern (LOL). The windmills were just unlucky that at peak demand nasty blocking highs stopped the wind blowing, for nearly a month. Some windmills were even more unlucky as they were frozen by the unexpected low temperatures for the time of year.
But don't worry everything will be better when we have several thousand more 'bird mincers'.
G.Watkins
http://www.bmreports.com/bsp/bsp_home.htm
I too am surprised at the 06/01/11 being included in the 3 highest demands and according to their predictions for the rest of winter I don't think that they are preparing for any more cold weather.
Figures in your last post in MW.
Sorry. Yes MegaW.
6/1/11 Total peak 54842 Mw Wind 692Mw
I believe wind installed capacity is 5.2 Gw but various sources differ somewhat.
@ G. Watkins - the last official figure I heard for UK wind installed capacity was 4.2GW (in summer 2010) of which 3.2GW was in Scotland. AFAIK Neta's metered output is only 2.6GW because many of the smaller turbines/schemes are fed direct in to the 33Kv / 11Kv distribution system, as opposed to the larger schemes which Neta meters before they feed the 275Kv transmission system. On top of that these machines are not the most reliable in the world, so at any one time there's probably at least 10-15% of the 4.2GW capacity unavailable due to essential maintenance and repairs.
LB
The Met Office's warning system seems to be consistent with their long term analysis.
Green = no severe weather
Yellow = be aware
Amber = be prepared
Red = Take action
and
a 60 – 80% probability of above normal temperatures
a 20 – 40% probability of near normal temperatures
a 0 – 20% probability of below normal temperatures
Again it all points to the notion that the Met Office did provide a forecast of a mild winter to the UK government.
Correction
LB
The Met Office's warning system seems to be consistent with their long term analysis.
Green = no severe weather
Yellow = be aware
Amber = be prepared
Red = Take action
and
a 60 – 80% probability of above normal temperatures
a 20 – 40% probability of near normal temperatures
a 0 – 20% probability of below normal temperatures
Again it all points to the notion that the Met Office did provide a forecast of a mild winter to the UK government.
It appears that the Met Office is now claiming that the UK government prevented it from releasing a cold winter forecast. As a consequence the BBC have served the UK goverment with a Freedom of Information request for information on the Met Office forecast.
There is a huge irony here because UK politicians, BBC environmental reporters and Met Office officials criticised others over FoI requests submitted to CRU-UEA.
What's 40-60%.. (apart from, 'we haven't a clue')?
“a huge irony here”
I can detect at least three: the MO blaming the govt for the forecast, the BBC complaining about warmists and the FOI situation. There are probably more - the whole ‘private forecast’ fiasco practically defines the term!
"20/12/10 Total 59504 Wind 61" (MW)
That's impressive - just over 0.1% from the turbines!
The Thickening Plot
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/01/11/the-plot-thickens-bbc-hits-uk-govt-with-freedom-of-information-demand-in-cold-winter-forecast-fiasco/