Tuesday
Aug102010
by 
Bishop Hill
Bishop Hill More on the Bolivian fish
Aug 10, 2010 Climate: WG2 Climate: other Bolivia Bella has some more on the "millions of dead fish" story. Apparently there has been some speculation that the deaths may have been caused by chemicals, but this idea looks as though it is a non-starter.
Reader Comments (25)
Realting to the Dolphin quotes
Cold water sinks, hot water rises. If anywhere, being near, or just below the surface, may have been a better location.
I suspect a would-be amateur scientist originating the quote.
Almost, but not quite Jerry. Water behaves anomalously, and reaches its maximum density at 4C. This means that you can have a lower layer that is warmer than the surface. This is why ponds rarely freeze completely, and why fish can survive at the bottom of frozen ponds.
Indeed, IIRC it is known as a thermocline.
Cumbrian Lad
Totally agreed, but perhaps the existence of ice on Bolivian rivers would be bigger news?
More likely this is a journalist confounding some vague knowledge of science to make a news story.
My reading of the web page the Bishop references is that the questions are posed by the journalist, but the answers are provided by "Departmental Secretary of Sustainable Development and the Environment, Manlio Roca Zamora, of the Santa Cruz State Government" and they look as if they are verbatim.
One of the answers includes the information "The water along the river banks actually turned to frost, something that is virtually unheard of in the tropics" - so yes, ice on Bolivian rivers! Not sure if that has reached the 3rd item of news on the Norfolk pages of the BBC website, which is where most significant climate news usually languishes :)
Cumbrian Lad
I'll sign off with a minor comment - no reply needed.
Having frost on a river-bank is relatively common and doesn't require the river water to be under 4C (temperature density inversion) . If the water was really that cold: exuent stage left dolphins and most other Bolivian fish. I've not seen reports on this thus far.
There are also huge numbers of dead river turtles , lagartos (alligators, caiman), capybara (the world’s largest mammal), and numerous types of birds, such as storks and “batos” (the tallest bird in South America), reptiles and other animals.
Let's see, the air temperature got down to 0C, and Capybara (a very large rodent) is freezing to death? No, somehow, that is hard to accept. Mammals are warm blooded as are the birds. The Yaghan Indians ran around nearly naked in the southern tip of Tierra del Fueguo and did okay until massacred by the Spanish
Ah, let's be polite and say "I think you had better look into this a bit more carefully, señor."
I agree that capibara and turtles pose a bit of a problem for that explanation. I guess we will have to wait for more clarifications.
As for the Yaghan, the Spanish were busy fighting the Mapuche farther north, so the Fuegians were still around at the time of FitzRoy and Darwing. Some say that the missionaries obsession with nudity killed them, as they were forced to wear unsuitable clothes for a region where it rains up to 10,000 mm a year. If you dress you are wet all the time, if you go around naked you dry every now and then. Others blame the sheep farming (a bit like the Scottish Clearances). There is a nice semi-historical account in Chatwin's novel "In Patagonia".
It hurts my eyes.
Darwin
I'm sorry
Patagon
According to what I read, it was the Spanish settlers who did in the naked savages. Pero, ¿quién sabe?
Any relationship to Patagonia?
I notice it refers to the capybara as the world's largest mammal, which will be news to almost every mammal in Africa, all the species of whales, and my dog. Oh, and me. It is the world's largest rodent, though.
Don Pablo
I like skiing the volcanoes over there and I think is a great country (2 actually, in political terms). So I escape in that direction whenever I can. Must try fly fishing next time. No connection with the original Patagones, I would die of hypothermia in no time in their conditions.
Mr Potarto
You noticed the extreme care the writer used in researching the article. :)
All the more reason to flip it into the circular file.
If the data on wunderground is correct there was a massive tempeature dip mid July
http://www.wunderground.com/NORMS/DisplayNORMS.asp?AirportCode=SLVR&StateCode=&SafeCityName=SLVR&Units=none&IATA=&lastyear=on&normals=on&records=on
There are also huge numbers of dead river turtles , lagartos (alligators, caiman), capybara (the world’s largest mammal)
...the world's largest rodent?
re a study in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS),
as reported by Eureka Alert (funded by AAAS):
9 Aug: Eureka Alert: Higher temperatures to slow Asian rice production
Rising temperatures during the past 25 years have already cut the yield growth rate by 10-20 percent in several locations...
http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2010-08/uoc--htt080610.php
as stated by Richard Black, BBC:
9 Aug: BBC: Richard Black: Rice yields falling under global warming
Yields have fallen by 10-20% over the last 25 years in some locations...
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-10918591
as stated by Natasha Gilbert, Nature:
10 Aug: Nature: Natasha Gilbert: Temperature increases damage rice yields
But as temperatures have warmed over the past 25 years, rice yields have fallen by 10-20% in Asia, which produces the lion’s share of the world’s rice...
http://blogs.nature.com/news/thegreatbeyond/2010/08/temperature_increases_damage_r.html
reminder: Fred Pearce, New Scientist 2004:
29 June 2004: New Scientist: Fred Pearce: Rice yields plunging due to balmy nights
Rice yields are crashing as a result of global warming at twice the rate predicted by climate modellers, according to the first "real world" experiment on the impact of rising temperatures.
The detailed study of crop yields and temperatures took place on long-standing research plots at the International Rice Research Institute at Los Banos in the Philippines. The results suggest that global rice yields could potentially fall by a catastrophic 50 per cent during this century...
Journal reference: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (DOI: 10.1073/pnas.0403720101)
http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn6082-rice-yields-plunging-due-to-balmy-nights.html
will BBC apologise to PNAS and the study authors for richard black's exaggeration?
will Nature/Natasha Gilbert apologise for the same exaggeration? don't think so.
are these writers " distorting the debate about global warming to make the threat seem even more serious than they believed it to be"?
Pat
Rice growth SLOWED by warming?
NOW that is a new one. I think I will open a rice farm in Antarctica. It must grow fantastic down there.
Rice growth slowed by higher temperatures?
I haven't got the exact reference to hand, but the report said rice growth was reduced by higher night-time temperatures but, critically and very under-reported, rice yields improve with higher daytime temperatures.
What this means is that higher diurnal temperature ranges are better than lower ranges.
I haven't the faintest idea what the GCMs say about this, but from all the future extreme weather warnings I expect they will indicate a higher diurnal range.
The rice paper (or more accurately the press release) claims that the rate of growth of yields has slowed by 10-20%, on rather dodgy grounds. For the various BBC people quoted to say that this means actual yields are REDUCED means they have very poor reading comprehension, and are not fit to report on Science at all, or probably anything else, All their job entails is rewriting press releases, ans they can't even do that. Certainly an apology is in order. And a correction.
Oh dear!
Global warming causes heart disease:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-10917611
Honestly, I give up, they might as well have linked global warming to scabies, rabies, skitters, spots, pox, warts, snoring, impotence and a runny nose.
You know if I was a scientist that say wanted to get a big juicy grant to look into the "link between bad posture induced by global warming" you can bet your bottom dollar I'd produce a report showing just that when the Champaign lifestyle of the grant money started to wear off, producing this endless media headline grabbing rubbish is exactly the same as the endless non stories Jordan sells to glossy magazines ever week, cheap to produce containing a suitably shocking headline but very little actual substance.
OT but FYI.
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2010/08/11/uea_open_data/
Choice quote, "Dr Simon Hodson, programme manager at JISC, said: "Climate scientists have been under the spotlight recently: there have been technical and cultural challenges to making data and methods openly available..."
Technical challenges? Really? Ever heard of this InterWeb thingy? I believe all the kids are doing it nowadays.
" Global warming causes heart disease:"
.....
Global warming is the disease.
Jason F,
That's a very short list you have. It is much worse than that. Try this list for a start: http://www.numberwatch.co.uk/warmlist.htm
jason f -
the bbc's "heart deaths" piece by Michelle Roberts looks like another piece of work.
after leading with all the CAGW stuff, it says:
"A study in the British Medical Journal found that each 1C temperature drop on a single day in the UK is linked to 200 extra heart attacks"...
"In the BMJ study....They found that a 1C reduction in average daily temperature was linked with a cumulative 2% increase in risk of heart attack for 28 days, even in the summer"...
it is only further down where it says:
"In an accompanying editorial in the BMJ, Dr Paola Michelozzi and Manuela De Sario, of the Lazio Region Department of Epidemiology in Rome, say although rising global temperatures will bring some health benefits, such as lower cold-related mortality, any benefits will be outweighed by the health risks linked to heatwaves"
and the piece finishes:
"Ellen Mason, of the British Heart Foundation, said: "Although the increased risk is small, if there is a nationwide drop in average temperature it could equate to a significant number of heart attacks each day.
"This timely piece of research reminds us that older people and anyone with heart disease should keep warm in their homes after the summer draws to a close."
yet, from the BMJ study site:
Results: ...each 1°C reduction in daily mean temperature was associated with a 2.0% (95% confidence interval 1.1% to 2.9%) cumulative increase in risk of myocardial infarction over the current and following 28 days, the strongest effects being estimated at intermediate lags of 2-7 and 8-14 days....
***Heat had no detrimental effect"...
"Conclusions Increases in risk of myocardial infarction at colder ambient temperatures may be one driver of cold related increases in overall mortality, but an increased risk of myocardial infarction at higher temperatures was not detected"
http://www.bmj.com/cgi/content/abstract/341/aug10_1/c3823
unless my reading comprehension has deserted me, the entire BBC piece is misleading, and is using the editorial by Dr Paola Michelozzi and Manuela De Sario, of the Lazio Region Department of Epidemiology in Rome to distrort "the debate about global warming to make the threat seem even more serious than they believed it to be"!
how richard black has kept his "environmental" position at BBC is beyond me and the same goes for Michelle Roberts after reading this piece. the moment i read it, it was obvious something was not quite right.
what to do?
Well first off I come to this page and climate Addit al the time to get to the truth of what the hell is going on .I just bought HSI and am reading it right now. But I just got one thought on the above post , as i'm from canada i can tell you this cold does cause heart attacts it call shoveling snow.