Friday
Apr162010
by 
Bishop Hill
Bishop Hill Cooling coming
Apr 16, 2010 Climate: other Matt Ridley makes the very interesting observation that, the skies being clear of contrails for the next couple of days, we should be in for some nocturnal cooling.
Reader Comments (27)
Except that the reason they are clear is a whacking great cloud of (largely invisible) volcanic ash, which might well be a confusing factor. I see no reason why it shouldn't be equally effective at reflecting outgoing IR back as incoming light in. Much would depend on the precise properties of the dust.
With apologies to Shakespeare:
‘I want to shut this country down’, cried Napier of the Met
I used to think my Wildlife Fund and CO2 sufficient
To screw things up right royally , but yet
Cold Copenhagen placed a spanner
Right in amongst my works.
So I will take me northwards, with WD five zero
And skoosh it into crevices deficient
In tectonic strength
And lo, a great ash cloud will render unto Caesar
And me as well a lever of such power
That as the skies do darken, all the airports
Will shut down, perhaps forever.
For CO2 doth not great alarum cause
Amongst the common people
Who cannot see it, while
Ash, dark ash, the biscuit takes
And makes them sorely tremble
At lowering skies, with condensation trails
Noted by their absence.
Great are my powers!
Next I will more windfarms build
Around this sceptred isle
To use up precious capital
And symbolise my might.
While bringing yet more darkness
Instead of warmth, or light.
If it keeps going there could be more than a little nocturnal cooling. The combination of a quiet sun and a serious eruption is worrying.
The warmists could learn what 'climate change' is really about.
I imagine that many thousands of tonnes of greenhouse gases are being emitted too.
If the Volcano emits SiO2 high into the atmosphere, then it will have a cooling effect.
SiO2 is the natural counter to CO2, and also a relatively inexpensive and very real practical measure, totally within mankind's engineering abilities to effectively counter "runaway global warming" should that ever actually occur.
The fact that it won't require trillions of $ to be passed through the hands of the UN or EU annually, or any carbon trading or emissions limits, however, means it's never spoken about as a practical mitigation for AGW, as demanded from the sceptics by our old friend Bob Ward in yesterday's Times debate (or perhaps the day before, Bob Ward's copious outpourings are hard to distinguish).
It may be interesting to see if any info could be gleaned by this event, but as mentioned above the confounding factors would probably be too great. This Nature article casts doubt on the possibility.
Grounding planes after the 11 September attacks may not have caused unusual temperature effects.
...the 2001 temperature swings seem to be within the range of natural variability over those decades.Link text
We need new sustainable volcanoes. It won't be cheap, but it has to be done.
Be careful what you wish for with Iceland's volcanos. Besides large amounts of SOx, they also emit large amounts of flourine and flourides which are both really toxic. And remember, the UK is the first large body of land down wind where the ash may fall.
Drew it's SO2 (that's sulphur, not silica).
But I think the cooling impact of this eruption on global temperatures will be limited due to:
a) the magnitude of the eruption (only VEI 3 sofar), wheras Chichon was VEI 5 and Pinatubo VEI 6)
b) The plume did not puncture the tropopause
c) The high lattitude prevents the cloud from speading over the world and reaching the tropics.
Absence of contrail may indeed have a bigger measurable effect in europe.
Did Iceland get sufficient carbon trading permits from ECX for all this?
The ending El Nino and oncoming La Nina along with the quiet Sun portend a dropping excess temperature and probably a trend to below recent averages over the next several months. The volcano plume may contribute some but at the present level, probably not much except locally. The amount of CO2 released is very small compared to all other sources, and will not have any significant effect. The SO2 and other gases may have more cooling contribution, but probably also not much.
I just love all the speculation. Somebody is obviously going to be right -- by chance. I guess the Unit Root in this case is the volcano :)
This seems to be the same issue that has caused wide spread belief in AGW in the first place, its placing linear constraints on complex phenomena there could be any number of factors at work here. Surely you cannot single out the lack of contrails as a sole source, when there is also the factor of the current high pressure system and the cloud of volcanic ash
What if Katla wakes up and wants to join the party?
Volcanoes, frighten and are a fascination and proof if any were needed of man's puny standing in the great scheme of things.
Aerosols in the upper troposphere would be a problem but not at present, we need to ponder the Arctic Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation, however these cooling effects coupled with a Laki type eruption of Katla and it could be back to a winter on the thames.
Athelstan, Indeed, what if Katla wants a bit of attention too, that could really focus peoples minds.
Clearly from an IPCC perspective, the volcanic eruptions will represent a deviation from an equilibrium non volcanic state, and this is undesirable.
So the logical path for the IPCC, UN and Western governments would seem to be to spend a lot of money to mitigate any effects of the volcanic eruptions, and possibly give some money to some developing nations that don't have their own volcanos. Then we can continue spending the money to mitigate and combat global warming.
Thank you Hans Erren for pointing out my error, and apologies all round.
Personally, I use a lot more SiO2 on a daily basis than SO2, so my typing fingers were obviously on autopilot this morning. And my young daughter was simultaneously practising on me her shouting and screaming skills at the same time. I'll go back to sleep now if I may.
If the volcano really gets going, they have a built-in excuse for three years or so should the global trends continue down - "the volcano made it go down". If the trends go up, they can say "we'd really be up the creek if the volcano hadn't gone off, and it'll get worse once the ash settles out". Then in three years it'll be a new excuse.
It's sort of like the one-line quote from "stock market analysts" that the evening newscasters use to explain why the market went up or down on a particular day. Many of they could have been written months ago, and the analyst simply picks one out from Chinese Menu A or Chinese Menu B depending on whether the market was up or down.
Nocturnal Cooling. Isn't that what Viagra sorts out?
We've had the same anti-cyclonic weather here (Isle of Wight) for several days, and last night was about 3 degrees cooler than previously... :-)
Slightly OT, but I'm curious why this relatively small eruption has grounded aircraft so effectively, when much larger eruptions didn't? (AFAIK)
"but I'm curious why this relatively small eruption has grounded aircraft so effectively, when much larger eruptions didn't? (AFAIK) "
Post normal scientific advice perhaps?
Yes, James' question is a good one, and I suspect Mike's answer is not far off. As far as I can tell from the maps - and they may have changed since yesterday, northern parts including Scandinavia and the Great Circle route to America look pretty chancy, but the rest of Europe ought to be fine.
Of course, I am open to correction by anyone here who knows better.
When AGW alarmists are spending so much time, effort and money trying to convince the nations that we are all going to fry ourselves, unless we start reducing our carbon emissions immediately – IF NOT sooner - and begin taxing each other to kingdom come, via a ‘bounty’ to be paid to the UN …….. All the while of course, there is strong evidence that the planet (according to this list) is freezing its toes off…… what or who I ask you, is a person to believe?
http://just-me-in-t.blogspot.com/2010/04/climate-change-hedging-ones-bets.html
Yes, James P, a very good question. Elf 'n Safety are guaranteed to be involved, together with their favourite Pre-Korshunary Princippil. But apparently, while our backs were turned, we inherited something new to subsidise called 'European Control', which is now responsible for such decisions. All we have to do is the 'tug forelock and obey' bit.
More apologies all round:
Oh Mighty Napier of the Met!
I have a plan that is as yet
Unproven
(But that need not detain us)
Recall how great our magic gas
Made models that could whole
Parliaments subdue?
Well, this northern dust doth
Catch my eye.
Into our models with it!
And bespy the havoc
We could cause.
As for data, who will go
Into the firmament to check?
And if they did, it matters not
As our magic gas can testament.
Mere facts, mere observations base
Will not deflect our trajectory
One jot
And if there be they who dare to try
We’ll deploy Health & Safety to
Gain some days. For who will deny
That magic dust now in the sky
As our model will extend.
All Europe in our grasp!
And beyond the HSE we have
The Human Rights by which all
Endeavour not compliant can be
Suppressed.
In time of calm there nothing so
Becomes a Met as modest stillness
And humility
But when the blast of Vulcan rings in our ears
Then let us imitate the actions of the tiger
(Or at least, the imaginative programmer).
Projections vile and various we shall emit
Like plumes that Pasquill would submit
To spread in ways both Gaussian and irregular
And cry Havoc! Into Ministries of Flight
Or Fright as they shall be known hereafter.
So, thus my plan, oh mighty one who spurned
The little furry creatures’ cares and woes
To build a might Fund
And who by Gramsci’s ghost I do declare has turned
Meteorologists into warriors bold, under his will.
Take my plan, my humble gesture
And make it great in no small measure
As befits thine awesome glory.
re: stopping the planes - my understanding is that most of the small particles of glass (SiO2) are in the 20K - 30K feet region which is where most flight paths are; also, I have heard the clouds of particles would not be visible to the pilots. SiO2 (think sand) is hard and based on experience with other types of rotating equipment I think the risk of damage is pretty high. As a mechanical engineer, I would be happy to stay grounded though this.
One other thing, I do mean SiO2 which makes up the small particles but there would also be SO2 from the volcano.
Scotty above is correct, the very small particles of SiO2 will be like flying through sandpaper. It damages the fuselage and also the jet engines. The first known problem with volcanic ash was the 24th of June 1982 , British Airways Flight 009.
A Boeing 747 flies into a cloud of volcanic ash and all engines gets a "flame out" on 11 000 meters. 12 minutes later they manage to start up two of the engines, that's a long time to think in a silent air plane. ;)