Friday
Nov052010
by 
Bishop Hill
Bishop Hill Waxwing irruption
Nov 5, 2010 Climate: other I am told that there have been sightings of waxwings in the village this week.
Waxwings are what is known as an irruptive species, which is to say that they appear in the UK when food is in short supply in their normal, more northern feeding grounds. Their arrival is therefore traditionally taken as evidence of an impending cold winter.
(Weather, not climate, of course.)
The normal pattern of waxwing irruptions is for sightings to extend gradually southwards across the UK, but this year seems to be rather different, with the birds arriving all at once.
This graph (source) tells the story. The red line is this year, with the peak both earlier and higher.
;)
Better lay some firewood in.
Reader Comments (29)
Interesting post here:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/natureuk/2010/10/as-the-thermoters-dropped-the.shtml
I recall seeing a story a few weeks back about the early, profuse arrival of swans at Montrose Basin this year too.
I think you should use Mike's Nature trick to hide the decline.
I recall this was mentioned on radio 4 this week. It may have been on Home Planet or Saving Species.
My firewood is in and the oil tank is full.
And mine, Phillip, and mine - but in France.
Phillip Bratby - it's no better down south either. We are now on the edge of summer and Darwin has had its coldest November day in recorded history - the thermometer never rose above a frigid 25.6 degrees Celsius.
Waxwings may need to be parameterised into the next generation of GCMs. Otherwise, how else to explain the cooling?
Here in Finland the heat in the summer caused a decrease in all kinds of berries in forests, they just dried up. Blueberries lingonberries etc. were in short supply. Hence birds and mammals cleaned all the berries away in record time, including rowan berries that wax wings are keen on. Bears became a nuisance because they started raiding gardens for apples etc. because there was nothing to eat in the forests and they need that extra layer of fat for winter.
So this year the cause waxwings early appearance is probably due to lack of food because of summer drought in parts of Scandinavia, rather than abnormally cold weather
Obviously the waxwings learnt from their big mistake last year in not leaving early.
As George Bush once said, "There's an old saying in Tennessee - I know it's in Texas, probably in Tennessee - that says, fool me once, shame on - shame on you. Fool me - you can't get fooled again."
Those waxwings clearly have an edge on Dubya.
Natsman. Lucky you, at least you have lots of nuclear to rely on. We rely on the interconnector to France all winter to import 2GW of nuclear, but will the CBs stay closed?
"Following public research, the Met Office no longer issues long-range forecasts for the general public; instead we provide a monthly outlook on our website."
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporate/pressoffice/2010/pr20101028.html
What public research was that? The public looking back at forecasts and saying wtf perhaps?
I've already got 4 feeders out in my back garden for the birds. 2 nut feeders, one suet ball feeder and 1 seed feeder which is full of sunflower seeds, or it was until the coal tits took virtually every seed out over 24 hours and "stored" them all over the garden in their little hidey holes.
Later on, I will increase the number of feeders to 8.
Last year I had Bramblings come visit when it was really cold. Managed to get some photos of this bird.
Unfortunately, the smaller birds which weigh practically nothing are very susceptible to very cold weather, like last Winter. These include the tiny Goldcrest which along with the Firecrest is Britain and Ireland's smallest bird species.
So guys, and girls, now is the time to start planning to help our featherd friends fight off:
Global Warming Climate Weather Disruption!!!
Peter Walsh
And, it is also great fun watching them!
Peter Walsh
I have been in a running battle with the RSPB over their nonsensical belief in climate change (they are leading members of Stop Climate Chaos and are taking part in the Big Climate Connection today and tomorrow) and in supporting the deployment, to tackle climate change, of lots of bird mashers (wind turbines). Their latest email to me could have been taken straight from the DECC handbook of 1001 replies to climate change deniers. I have told them to stop wasting money on climate disruption and concentrate their efforts on ensuring that birds can survive another cold winter like the last one.
Nevertheless, I too am busy feeding very hungry birds at the moment, but I confess I don't have as many feeders as you.
Unless my computer is showing me wrong colours, waxwing sightings = cold winters is balls, because 2008-09 sightings are much higher than 2009-10, which of course was far colder than 2008-09.
They don't really cut it as birds of ill omen, do they? They hardly dress the part.
Phillip,
Nice to have your reply and to read that you also feed the birds. I should have mentioned earlier about the small birds that their lack of bulk means that they are the most likely to die during cold weather. So they need as much feeding as possible. About 2/3 years ago, I managed to get a shot of a goldcrest feeding on one of my nut feeders. Our local organization, Bird Watch Ireland had never seen a photo of this happening, so they printed it in their quarterly magazine which was very satisfying on my part. Now, you know that I love twisting words around, so, while sympathizing with you in your ongoing "discussions" with the RSPB, maybe they should be re-named Royal Society for Promoting Bullshit. Keep fighting the Good fight.
Rgds
Peter
Phillip Bratby
The RSPB also endorses the shooting of Ruddy Ducks.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2010/feb/07/ruddy-duck-cull-waste-money
(I've just come in from unloading three steres of logs.)
I just paid my electrical bill for October . . . 23 Euros equivalent for electrical and 3 for natural gas. I do feel very sorry for UK residents.
Not very scientific, I know, but we have some of the fattest squirrels I've ever seen here in Toronto this fall.
If this La Nina is, indeed, one of the coldest in 50+ years, it might get tough here in Ontario. The second coldest was in 1976, and I remember it for two reasons:
One, we had just switched over to metric here in Canada, and my family actually all just had to stand outside (for a very short time) to see our brand new "duo" measure thermometer as it hit -40 on both Fahrenheit and Centigrade (we are a bit north of here http://preview.tinyurl.com/37brepu). This was early December.
Two, we were moving that week, had cut off the heating in the old house, and, as kids would do, loved the fact that there was actually frost a few inches thick on the walls of the old house...
Ha! saw a small flock of them this afternoon in Northumberland before I read this post. Coincidence.
Matt
What worries me is that the Met Office thinks it is going to be mild again..
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/topics/weather/8090325/Met-Office-data-suggests-mild-winter-but-dont-forget-last-year.html
Dreadnought: I had never heard of a stere. I had to look it up in an online dictionary and it appeared at http://www.thefreedictionary.com/stere with an advert for the 10:10 campaign and Help Combat the Climate Crisis. Let's hope 3 steres is enough for this winter.
James P. The Met Office says "The statistics were generated by the Met Office’s new £33million supercomputer built by IBM." It should be better than Piers' Corbyn's calculator then. Just like last winter!
Philip
Good old IBM, My wife worked on these:
http://encyclopedia2.thefreedictionary.com/accounting+machine
Hmmm, The coolists are getting exited about certain signs pointing to a very bad winter in the UK. adhering to Murphy's Law, This is a strong indicator that this winter will be pretty normal/average for the last decade.
Yes sunspots are quiet, etc etc. I even traded in my 10 yr old Zefira for a new Rav4. However, the mighty Piers Corbyn has been quiet about the severity of this winter for the UK/Europe and so I suspect we will have a fairly normal winter this year...
Jamo: "Here in Finland the heat in the summer..."
A very interesting other side to the early arrivals deserving of contemplation before commitment to a conclusion.
Meanwhile, we have the encouraging news, from Richard Black of the BBC, that "great tits cope well with warming". Ah well. I suppose Angelina Jolie has nothing to worry about then....
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7390109.stm
Hm.
There are of course other events which may lead to waxwing irruptions.
Jarmo's information was very interesting, and it might well be that this autumn's irruption is due to a lack of food quite early on.
A few years ago (I think it was in 2003) there was a huge one in winter, not autumn. This was said to have been due to a population explosion of waxwings in Siberia.
Population explosions are well known, and while an abundant food source is certainly a reason, others are a lack of predators. These explosions usually crash, they are not permanent.
I counted 76 here in a park in Cardiff at that time, and they had been tracked from Scotland all the way down South. There had been none in the years before.
So imho it is very dicey to use something like a waxwing irruption as climate indicator, because there are probably other reasons besides climate for those occurrences.
"great tits cope well with warming"
I always knew AGW was nothing to worry about...
"the mighty Piers Corbyn has been quiet about the severity of this winter for the UK/Europe"
That may be because his battle with the MO was won when they officially abandoned long-range forecasting. I think he's also fed up with giving away valuable information that he'd rather be paid for - you'd think the BBC might strike a deal, he must be a lot cheaper than the MO!