3 years in a row and counting, when does weather become climate ?
Fires in Russia, floods in Pakistan seem to be one off events which confirm AGW by hints but 3 cold winters in UK are just weather and get no mention or confrim AGW by some weird reverse logic I can't follow ;) .
Bet you're glad you've got a good pile of logs to burn!
No. Not burning logs. He's recycling plant food.
But isn't it just weather, not climate?
Not "just" weather. Enough weather makes climate. 10 years ago IIRC it was predicted that snow would be a thing of the past. Seems to be the past, the present, and likely to be the future as well. Bring on global warming.
Down in Devon we've had seven nights of sub-zero temperatures, with the last three being below -7degC. We don't have much snow, but it is coming down now. I believe winter starts tomorrow. I can't wait for a piece of that climate change instead of this weather. But I guess I'll just have to wait 30 years.
Meanwhile, the dominos continue to fall... Greece, Ireland, now Spain, coming soon Portugal... EU economy is in total meltdown... no wonder they want the carbon tax money so badly.
What happens if Germany and UK economies end up needing bailouts?
Sorry Bish but laughing my ass off! Even Shanghai has a balmy 12 degrees. The wife arrives on Thursday and she is leaving a winter sun of 23 degrees in Cyprus to come here! That AGW detritus is a bugger to clean up huh! Makes one wonder how the jacusi in Cancun is doing
"However, the warming is so far manifesting itself more in winters which are less cold than in much hotter summers. According to Dr David Viner, a senior research scientist at the climatic research unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia,within a few years winter snowfall will become "a very rare and exciting event".
"The chances are certainly now stacked against the sortof heavy snowfall in cities that inspired Impressionist painters, such as Sisley, and the 19th century poet laureate Robert Bridges, who wrote in "London Snow" of it, "stealthily and perpetually settling and loosely lying".
Not any more, it seems."
"Children just aren't going to know what snow is," he said."
Does anyone know how our continental neighbours are faring? Since all that global warming is arriving from the East, I assume they've had more than usual. IIRC, it reached -54 deg in Siberia at the weekend...
Interesting picture. I live about a dozen miles west of the Good Bishop and it's not any better here. It's started snowing again and the sky is full of global warming detritus. It's been unusual seeing leaves lying on the snow. They've usually departed long before the snows come. Noticed the two wheelie bins in the picture. I've got four, grey, green, brown and blue. At least they were on Friday. They're all White now!
Got a foot of lying snow (not the same "lying" as the BBC's Harrabin & Black - who sound like a firm of dodgy solicitors) here in France, too. I'm marooned on my forested, rural hill. Lovely - the two woodburners are going strong, and its snowing again. I feel unashamedly globally warmed.
That "Snowfalls are now just a thing of the past" article is gradually climbing the Independent's Top 10 Environmental articles. On Friday it was at #4, now it's at #2.
I wonder if it will get to #1, and what will the Independent say then?
I live very close to Bishop Hill in the borders and I can assure you there is no snow here. The fall was localised to two streets. It's a freak. The house behind the one you can see in the background is completely snow free.
My illusions are shattered. I envisaged the good Bishop's residence as a large mansion house with views of moorland and highlands. A Laird if you will.
OTOH - careful everyone. Just at one swallow does not make a summer, a cold snap doesn't mean there's no AGW.
(Of course warmista's claim that the snow is entirely predicted by models due to increased evaporation because of the heat. So the snow is caused by the heat :P)
What is just out of shot are a couple of snow blowers. Together with the professional photo team, "Big Oil" leaves no snowball unthrown in its attempt to make BH as authentic as possible.
There was a Robin. Norwegian. The shoot director decided it was one detail too many.
Some 'idiot' tried to convince me yesterday that all this cold weather we're having is because of man made global warming. I backed away slowly... It's rather like the statement that 'it's too cold to snow' - tell that to the south pole
Fires in Russia, floods in Pakistan seem to be one off events which confirm AGW by hints but 3 cold winters in UK are just weather
Its climate because they have that eventuality covered here
From the article:
"These anomalies could triple the probability of cold winter extremes in Europe and northern Asia," he said. "Recent severe winters like last year's or the one of 2005/06 do not conflict with the global warming picture but rather supplement it."
You should know by now that it is irrelevant whether winter/summer get colder/warmer/wetter/drier there is a climate scientist out there who has that eventuality covered.
Philip Bratby, 10.43am "I believe winter starts tomorrow." The Met office unilaterally decided that winter starts on 1st December. It's not for them to decide these things. Winter starts on 21st December.
Prices like temperatures have been steadily going up since 1850 (and before). Sometimes they rise, sometimes they fall, but the trend is upwards.
Imagine you went to the supermarket tomorrow and found that prices had reverted to an all time low. You would think there was something seriously wrong with economic theory.
Well ah woke up dis mo'nin', Can't believe my eyes, Ground was covered in global warmin', Birdbath covered in ice. Load up the fire with CO2s, I got the climate change blues.
The French Met Office has the same warming bias and inability to any effective prediction as the UK one.
In the Loire Valley, we got 20 CM of snow on Sunday afternoon without warning ; on Monday evening, the weather forecast was -2° C and the same for Tuesday morning. Actually, the temperature was already at -6° on Monday evening, and -12° C on Tuesday morning !
At Oregon's Mt. Bachelor the snowfall this season is 112" (284 cm) through yesterday morning, with a forecast of possibly 10" more on this last day of November.
It is a snowy place, having a seasonal average of 387" (983 cm). But still, 30% of the seasonal average before the start of meterological winter is impressive.
Here down in Hampshire we had the first snow last night. I can see it falling right now. I was on my way to Sheffield for a meeting at the university - it was cancelled as the university decided to close for the day.
Just talked to a friend of mine in Aachen, Germany. He said it was very bad yesterday. I think the last yer they had snow so early was 1994.
Well here on Anglesey the globular warming is getting near a tipping point as I write the warming effects are showing up as that white stuff that you only get when the temp goes up! and currently I am sitting in my 'heat begone ' thermals, the council is using fire retardant grit on the tarmac and they have the big fan things switched off to cut down on the climate heating air friction ! .
But it's warm snow, or something. We'll have glaciers sliding down the M6 and they'll be saying, 'But the Ice Age is hiding the upward trend.' Madness. I just had a little 'exchange' with a guy who still believes in the Exxon Mobil nonsense and thinks 'tens of thousands of climate scientists all agree' etc. That's not even 'cognitive dissonance', it's just frothy mouthed lunacy.
From the Irishtimes on line. According to Prof Mike Lockwood of the department of meteorology at the University of Reading, we should blame it all on sunspots. MYGOD, MAN! HAVE YOU GONE DAFT? Everybody knows that is is the CO2! No trip to Cancun for you! Many years of cold winters lie ahead
And apparently, the Google View Opels have been busy in Scotland and caught a snap of the Bishop romping in the snow in front of his house. Arctic conditions paralyse Scotland
Speaking of Cancun, has there been any news? Or are all the delegates snow bound in Europe as well as the US?
I couldn't have imagined a more deliciously ironic weather for COP 16, with the warmistas sitting in Cancun, drinking piña coladas as they sun themselves by the pool while we keep warm by shoveling snow.
Why painful for us, there is a God, and he has a wicked sense of humour.
The numpty who made this forecast was Dr. David Viner. Has it crippled his career? Nope. He has been promoted to "head of the British Council's climate change programme". Here's a serious question: how DO these people manage to stay on the gravy train? What ARE the skills needed to blather on about a nonexistent threat year after year, decade after decade?
Here's some straight talking by poster Bomber the Cat, commenting on Johann Hari's piece in the Indy:
http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/johann-hari/johann-hari-there-wont-be-a-bailout-for-the-earth-2143876.html (Click on Sort by/Best Rating)
"The greatest scientific scam of all time... rats abandoning the sinking AGW ship... including the Royal Society.... pseudo-science based on computer modelling...."
This is a different type of snow (cf. British Rail). This type of snow is caused by climate change. The old type of snow (caused by weather) is what the robust CRU gurus announced would be never seen again. I believe that chemists from the University of Chipping Sodbury have conclusively demonstrated different molecular crystal structures in these two types of snow.
“how DO these people manage to stay on the gravy train?”
I’ve often wondered, but I think there are a few prerequisites. One is hubris (think Blair), then a lack of any real sense of irony, humour* or self-awareness, and an ability to compartmentalise issues, so that any conflicting information that might derail the project can be ignored or at least kept away from the PR stuff that keeps it rolling. It’s all upheld by bureaucracy, which ensures that anyone above a certain pay-grade is bullet-proof, lest he bring down those around him who got there by similar means.
*It’s been said before, but I’ve certainly noticed how the warmist blogs are generally good-natured and banterous, while RC and its clones (think Joe Romm) are dreadfully serious and unpleasant towards anyone who challenges the Faith.
By 4.00 p.m. the second-most viewed story in the Independent had become a thing of the past and had disappeared from the home page! That's statistics for you!
When it's not snowing it gets cold in winter. -25C to -40C is not normal here at the south east end of Lake Simcoe (Ontario) -- but it's not remarkable either. Every winter we get a few spells of that weather -- sometimes only a day or so -- sometimes a week or two. When the cold snaps hit we look forward to a snowstorm as it will likely raise the temperature to above -10C.
Get used to it. The ice age is coming and it was made in Canada -- for export! :-)
As at 5.30 it's back and it's the #1 story. Hilarious.
It's not often I laugh out loud at something I read about climate change, but frankly, bits like this
"According to Dr David Viner, a senior research scientist at the climatic research unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia,within a few years winter snowfall will become "a very rare and exciting event".
"Children just aren't going to know what snow is," he said.
* Heads of state like Mexican President Felipe Calderon. There aren’t as many heads of state expected this year as at COP 15. * Business leaders, from the CEO of Coca-Cola, to the CEO of Dow Chemical, to the CEO of Duke Energy. * The new Executive Secretary, UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, Christiana Figueres (the former resigned earlier this year). * Investors — last year featured a list of high-profile investors like George Soros and Richard Branson making statements about the need for policy clarity. * Protesters. Expect most of the early photos and reports to come from the inevitable protesters. * Media. Press is capped at 2,000, but expect at least that many flying in to watch the negotiations. * NGOs — Often times the largest contingent of attendees are from NGOs that attend to network, and forge campaigns.
Reader Comments (93)
Bet you're glad you've got a good pile of logs to burn! But isn't it just weather, not climate?
3 years in a row and counting, when does weather become climate ?
Fires in Russia, floods in Pakistan seem to be one off events which confirm AGW by hints but 3 cold winters in UK are just weather and get no mention or confrim AGW by some weird reverse logic I can't follow ;) .
But that is global warming! (That white stuff..)
No. Not burning logs. He's recycling plant food.
Not "just" weather. Enough weather makes climate. 10 years ago IIRC it was predicted that snow would be a thing of the past. Seems to be the past, the present, and likely to be the future as well. Bring on global warming.
Down in Devon we've had seven nights of sub-zero temperatures, with the last three being below -7degC. We don't have much snow, but it is coming down now. I believe winter starts tomorrow. I can't wait for a piece of that climate change instead of this weather. But I guess I'll just have to wait 30 years.
but this is this second hottest year on record
/sarc off
So AGW must be:
"Wondrous apparition, provided by magician
Doo doo doo lookin' out my back door"?
[BH adds: that's what I had in mind]
"Scorchio"
Meanwhile, the dominos continue to fall... Greece, Ireland, now Spain, coming soon Portugal... EU economy is in total meltdown... no wonder they want the carbon tax money so badly.
What happens if Germany and UK economies end up needing bailouts?
Sorry Bish but laughing my ass off! Even Shanghai has a balmy 12 degrees. The wife arrives on Thursday and she is leaving a winter sun of 23 degrees in Cyprus to come here! That AGW detritus is a bugger to clean up huh! Makes one wonder how the jacusi in Cancun is doing
http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/snowfalls-are-now-just-a-thing-of-the-past-724017.html
"However, the warming is so far manifesting itself more in winters which are less cold than in much hotter summers. According to Dr David Viner, a senior research scientist at the climatic research unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia,within a few years winter snowfall will become "a very rare and exciting event".
"The chances are certainly now stacked against the sortof heavy snowfall in cities that inspired Impressionist painters, such as Sisley, and the 19th century poet laureate Robert Bridges, who wrote in "London Snow" of it, "stealthily and perpetually settling and loosely lying".
Not any more, it seems."
"Children just aren't going to know what snow is," he said."
Null hypothesis = 1
Thanks, Frosty. That's the one I was thinking about.
So from the photo, the ecofascists can determine that you have not placed anything in your green recycling bins since it started to snow.
Do you have some form of central heating system powered by the heat of composting, and the resulting gas?
Chosse either -
1. Big oil paid you to say that or
2. This is obviously a regional anomaly - just like the MWP of course!
Oh yes. [nods sagely]
Does anyone know how our continental neighbours are faring? Since all that global warming is arriving from the East, I assume they've had more than usual. IIRC, it reached -54 deg in Siberia at the weekend...
Interesting picture. I live about a dozen miles west of the Good Bishop and it's not any better here.
It's started snowing again and the sky is full of global warming detritus.
It's been unusual seeing leaves lying on the snow. They've usually departed long before the snows come.
Noticed the two wheelie bins in the picture. I've got four, grey, green, brown and blue. At least they were on Friday. They're all White now!
Oops. East!
Got a foot of lying snow (not the same "lying" as the BBC's Harrabin & Black - who sound like a firm of dodgy solicitors) here in France, too. I'm marooned on my forested, rural hill. Lovely - the two woodburners are going strong, and its snowing again. I feel unashamedly globally warmed.
'My foot'. Yes it does look like about 12 inches. Good one.
==============================
That "Snowfalls are now just a thing of the past" article is gradually climbing the Independent's Top 10 Environmental articles. On Friday it was at #4, now it's at #2.
I wonder if it will get to #1, and what will the Independent say then?
http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/
But you do feel 'disrupted', right?
I live very close to Bishop Hill in the borders and I can assure you there is no snow here. The fall was localised to two streets. It's a freak. The house behind the one you can see in the background is completely snow free.
My illusions are shattered. I envisaged the good Bishop's residence as a large mansion house with views of moorland and highlands. A Laird if you will.
OTOH - careful everyone. Just at one swallow does not make a summer, a cold snap doesn't mean there's no AGW.
(Of course warmista's claim that the snow is entirely predicted by models due to increased evaporation because of the heat. So the snow is caused by the heat :P)
@e simth
What is just out of shot are a couple of snow blowers. Together with the professional photo team, "Big Oil" leaves no snowball unthrown in its attempt to make BH as authentic as possible.
There was a Robin. Norwegian. The shoot director decided it was one detail too many.
Some 'idiot' tried to convince me yesterday that all this cold weather we're having is because of man made global warming. I backed away slowly... It's rather like the statement that 'it's too cold to snow' - tell that to the south pole
Re: JohnH
Its climate because they have that eventuality covered here
From the article:
You should know by now that it is irrelevant whether winter/summer get colder/warmer/wetter/drier there is a climate scientist out there who has that eventuality covered.
Philip Bratby, 10.43am
"I believe winter starts tomorrow."
The Met office unilaterally decided that winter starts on 1st December. It's not for them to decide these things. Winter starts on 21st December.
Prices like temperatures have been steadily going up since 1850 (and before). Sometimes they rise, sometimes they fall, but the trend is upwards.
Imagine you went to the supermarket tomorrow and found that prices had reverted to an all time low. You would think there was something seriously wrong with economic theory.
Pretty cold down south as well. For the first time in 11 years Brisbane has not reached 30 Deg C over the six months of winter and spring.
My wife turns the heater on when it gets down to 23C. Our carbon footprint is obscene.
Well ah woke up dis mo'nin',
Can't believe my eyes,
Ground was covered in global warmin',
Birdbath covered in ice.
Load up the fire with CO2s,
I got the climate change blues.
The French Met Office has the same warming bias and inability to any effective prediction as the UK one.
In the Loire Valley, we got 20 CM of snow on Sunday afternoon without warning ; on Monday evening, the weather forecast was -2° C and the same for Tuesday morning. Actually, the temperature was already at -6° on Monday evening, and -12° C on Tuesday morning !
It is snowing elsewhere.
At Oregon's Mt. Bachelor the snowfall this season is 112" (284 cm) through yesterday morning, with a forecast of possibly 10" more on this last day of November.
It is a snowy place, having a seasonal average of 387" (983 cm). But still, 30% of the seasonal average before the start of meterological winter is impressive.
http://www.mtbachelor.com/winter/mountain/snow_report
Here down in Hampshire we had the first snow last night. I can see it falling right now. I was on my way to Sheffield for a meeting at the university - it was cancelled as the university decided to close for the day.
Just talked to a friend of mine in Aachen, Germany. He said it was very bad yesterday. I think the last yer they had snow so early was 1994.
Well here on Anglesey the globular warming is getting near a tipping point as I write the warming effects are showing up as that white stuff that you only get when the temp goes up! and currently I am sitting in my 'heat begone ' thermals, the council is using fire retardant grit on the tarmac and they have the big fan things switched off to cut down on the climate heating air friction ! .
Good weather for a BBQ.
But it's warm snow, or something. We'll have glaciers sliding down the M6 and they'll be saying, 'But the Ice Age is hiding the upward trend.' Madness. I just had a little 'exchange' with a guy who still believes in the Exxon Mobil nonsense and thinks 'tens of thousands of climate scientists all agree' etc. That's not even 'cognitive dissonance', it's just frothy mouthed lunacy.
From the Irishtimes on line. According to Prof Mike Lockwood of the department of meteorology at the University of Reading, we should blame it all on sunspots. MYGOD, MAN! HAVE YOU GONE DAFT? Everybody knows that is is the CO2! No trip to Cancun for you!
Many years of cold winters lie ahead
And apparently, the Google View Opels have been busy in Scotland and caught a snap of the Bishop romping in the snow in front of his house.
Arctic conditions paralyse Scotland
Speaking of Cancun, has there been any news? Or are all the delegates snow bound in Europe as well as the US?
I couldn't have imagined a more deliciously ironic weather for COP 16, with the warmistas sitting in Cancun, drinking piña coladas as they sun themselves by the pool while we keep warm by shoveling snow.
Why painful for us, there is a God, and he has a wicked sense of humour.
Very pleased to see that this is among the Independent's most-viewed:
http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/snowfalls-are-now-just-a-thing-of-the-past-724017.html
The numpty who made this forecast was Dr. David Viner. Has it crippled his career? Nope. He has been promoted to "head of the British Council's climate change programme". Here's a serious question: how DO these people manage to stay on the gravy train? What ARE the skills needed to blather on about a nonexistent threat year after year, decade after decade?
Here's some straight talking by poster Bomber the Cat, commenting on Johann Hari's piece in the Indy:
http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/johann-hari/johann-hari-there-wont-be-a-bailout-for-the-earth-2143876.html (Click on Sort by/Best Rating)
"The greatest scientific scam of all time... rats abandoning the sinking AGW ship... including the Royal Society.... pseudo-science based on computer modelling...."
Stirring stuff. Citoyens! Aux armes!!!!
Brent Hargreaves
How did Stalin and Hitler stay in power for so long?
Any dissenters were purged. Judith Curry was branded a heretic for admitting reading HSI.
The only climate rising, is a climate of fear amongst climatologists
This is a different type of snow (cf. British Rail). This type of snow is caused by climate change. The old type of snow (caused by weather) is what the robust CRU gurus announced would be never seen again. I believe that chemists from the University of Chipping Sodbury have conclusively demonstrated different molecular crystal structures in these two types of snow.
“how DO these people manage to stay on the gravy train?”
I’ve often wondered, but I think there are a few prerequisites. One is hubris (think Blair), then a lack of any real sense of irony, humour* or self-awareness, and an ability to compartmentalise issues, so that any conflicting information that might derail the project can be ignored or at least kept away from the PR stuff that keeps it rolling. It’s all upheld by bureaucracy, which ensures that anyone above a certain pay-grade is bullet-proof, lest he bring down those around him who got there by similar means.
*It’s been said before, but I’ve certainly noticed how the warmist blogs are generally good-natured and banterous, while RC and its clones (think Joe Romm) are dreadfully serious and unpleasant towards anyone who challenges the Faith.
ZT
"different molecular crystal structures"
It also has a higher melting point.. :-)
Brent Hargreaves
By 4.00 p.m. the second-most viewed story in the Independent had become a thing of the past and had disappeared from the home page! That's statistics for you!
Here in Canada we like snow! Snow = warm weather!
When it's not snowing it gets cold in winter. -25C to -40C is not normal here at the south east end of Lake Simcoe (Ontario) -- but it's not remarkable either. Every winter we get a few spells of that weather -- sometimes only a day or so -- sometimes a week or two. When the cold snaps hit we look forward to a snowstorm as it will likely raise the temperature to above -10C.
Get used to it. The ice age is coming and it was made in Canada -- for export! :-)
Another three weeks or so and winter will be here...
Mike Post - that happens on a lot of press websites - they'll run up some new alarmist story, the comments go the other way, and the story disappears.
As at 5.30 it's back and it's the #1 story. Hilarious.
It's not often I laugh out loud at something I read about climate change, but frankly, bits like this
"According to Dr David Viner, a senior research scientist at the climatic research unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia,within a few years winter snowfall will become "a very rare and exciting event".
"Children just aren't going to know what snow is," he said.
...just make me laugh till I cry!
I had to smile when I read in,
Greentech Guide to COP 16 in Mexico, whose attending, it states,
Heads of state like Mexican President Felipe Calderon. There aren’t as many heads of state expected this year as at COP 15.
Be a bit odd if he didn`t attend, what a joke.
http://gigaom.com/cleantech/greentech-guide-to-cop-16-in-mexico/
Who’s Attending:
* Heads of state like Mexican President Felipe Calderon. There aren’t as many heads of state expected this year as at COP 15.
* Business leaders, from the CEO of Coca-Cola, to the CEO of Dow Chemical, to the CEO of Duke Energy.
* The new Executive Secretary, UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, Christiana Figueres (the former resigned earlier this year).
* Investors — last year featured a list of high-profile investors like George Soros and Richard Branson making statements about the need for policy clarity.
* Protesters. Expect most of the early photos and reports to come from the inevitable protesters.
* Media. Press is capped at 2,000, but expect at least that many flying in to watch the negotiations.
* NGOs — Often times the largest contingent of attendees are from NGOs that attend to network, and forge campaigns.