Bishop Hill IPCC and WWF statements on glaciers
Jan 20, 2010 Climate: IPCC Climate: WG2 Greens In separate statements of regret and remorse, the IPCC and World Wildlife Fund have confessed to their parts in getting unsupported statements about disappearing glaciers into the IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report.
The IPCC refer in their press release to "poorly substantiated estimates of rate of recession and date for the disappearance of Himalayan glaciers" to which one might be tempted to add the words "not credible in the first place".
The reason for the lapse was, apparently, non-adherence to IPCC rules:
In drafting the paragraph in question, the clear and well-established standards of evidence, required by the IPCC procedures, were not applied properly. The Chair, Vice-Chairs, and Co-chairs of the IPCC regret the poor application of well-established IPCC procedures in this instance. This episode demonstrates that the quality of the assessment depends on absolute adherence to the IPCC standards, including thorough review of “the quality and validity of each source before incorporating results from the source into an IPCC Report” 3. We reaffirm our strong commitment to ensuring this level of performance.
This is an interesting admission, particularly for me, having just written a book that touches on several issues of failings in IPCC procedures and unbalanced statements finding their way into IPCC reports.
Meanwhile, WWF are also very sorry:
At the time the WWF report was issued, we believed the source of the statement to be reliable and accurate.
We regret any confusion caused by our role in repeating the erroneous quote in the 2005 report and in subsequent publications and statements.
As the world’s leading science-based conservation organisation, WWF is strongly committed to ensuring the information we provide to the public is thoroughly reviewed to meet the highest standards of accuracy.
Bishop Hill
Oops! On the same lines, Roger Pielke Jnr has posted a particularly egregious example of IPCC authors simply making things up. When a reviewer thought that Pielke Jnr's views should be sought on a question of hurricane damage in the USA, instead of actually asking him, the chapter authors simply inserted a statement as follows:
I believe Pielke agrees that adding 2004 and 2005 has the potential to change his earlier conclusions – at least about the absence of a trend in US Cat losses.
What makes their error even worse was that Pielke had previously made it clear that he believed no such thing.
This looks very bad.
Reader Comments (22)
To me the IPCC's comments read, "See! We are the experts; we have expert-style rules about stuff. We missed this one but, hey, we're still the experts you can trust."
Would you go to a hospital with a high post-op infection rate because they said of a recent death, "This just shows how important our well-established hygiene procedures are"?
I think not.
"As the world’s leading science-based conservation organisation, WWF is strongly committed to ensuring the information we provide to the public is thoroughly reviewed to meet the highest standards of accuracy."
Oh yeah? So how do they produce an advert like this? http://www.wwf.org.uk/adoption/polarbear/index.cfm?pc=AFX004001&gclid=CIOl_Iu4s58CFReY2Aodl0-52g
I think its good that the breakdown of the anthropological climate change conspiracy continues apace as the election approaches.
This all reminds me of a seedy hotel I once stayed in. I got up in the middle of the night to use the loo and was shocked to see all the cockroaches running for cover. Two minutes later, there wasn't one to be seen.
I hope someday someone exposes exactly who is behind this sham. We are just seeing the little bastards run now that the lights have been turned on, but we haven't found their nest.
This whole thing is far to wide spread and has its tentacles into far too many organizations to have just happened by itself. While many of the fanbois are clearly true believers and willing followers, there is some group somewhere spending the money and pulling the strings of their various puppets like IPCC and WWF, Just what are there goals. Clearly some of them are in it for the money. Others for power. But what are they really after?
"At the time the WWF report was issued, we believed the source of the statement to be reliable and accurate".
Bullshit:
This is what they really thought: At the time the WWF report was issued, it just sounded so good that it just had to be true and it just had to be accurate.
You can be sure the WWF knows exactly what the glacier situation in the Himalayas reallly is. Their activism simply went overboard.
Having read both press releases all I can say is were,s the oppology to the people living around the Glaciers who've had the sh1t scared out of them.
It might have been possible to have a smidgen of sympathy if their first line of defense whenever challenged wasn't "peer reviewed" quickly followed by accusations of "denier".
Instead, I shall luxuriate in the feeling of schadenfreude.
With all these bad headlines about the IPCC building up, I think Pachauri will start to get the lame duck treatment from the media, this Guardian piece smells like they losing faith in him
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/blog/2010/jan/20/pachauri-personal-attacks
It's titled
"UN climate chief jabs back at allegations of financial impropriety - but fails to land a blow"
Let us never forget how often the AGW true believers have swung the credibility of the IPCC around like a club in an effort to extend their argument by authority.
Now?
It is long past time to unwind the pile of stinking offal dressed up as climate science.
If anybody is responsible for increasing the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere then Patchy has to be an odds on contender. His itinery from the TERI annual 08/09 report outlines his movements for presentations, conferences and seminars.
Pachauri R K. 2008. A global perspective of climate change. Presentation made at The Guardian Climate Change
Summit, London, UK, July 2008
Pachauri R K. 2008. Achieving sustainable development. Presentation made at the ECOSOC (Economic and Social
Council) High-Level Policy Dialogue, New York, USA, June 2008
Pachauri R K. 2008. Addressing climate change: a challenge for international cooperation. Presentation made at the
TERI-FES Forum on Climate Policy Dialogue – Public Panel, Bonn, Germany, May 2008
Pachauri R K. 2008. Challenges for global climate governance. Presentation made at the TERI–FES Forum on Climate
Policy Dialogue – Session, Bonn, Germany, May 2008
Pachauri R K. 2008. Climate change and cities. Presentation made at the 9th World Congress of Metropolis, Sydney,
Australia, October 2008
Pachauri R K. 2008. Climate change and clean technologies: potential for Indian-Japanese partnerships. Presentation
made in Yokohama, Japan, November 2008
Pachauri R K. 2008. Climate change and energy challenges. Presentation made at the Energy Forum, Brussels, Belgium,
December 2008
Pachauri R K. 2008. Climate change and international security: the way forward. Presentation made in Freiburg,
Germany, November 2008
Pachauri R K. 2008. Climate change and its implications for the transport sector. Presentation made at the
International Transport Forum, Leipzig, Germany, May 2008
Pachauri R K. 2008. Climate change and security. Presentation made at the Seminar on Climate Change, CDM (Clean
Development Mechanism), and Renewable Energy, Oslo, Norway, May 2008
Pachauri R K. 2008. Climate change and sustainable management of natural resources: role of the corporate sector.
Presentation made in Ludhiana, India, November 2008
Pachauri R K. 2008. Climate change and the role of business. Presentation made at the Global Coca-Cola Retailing
Research Council Forum, Beijing, China, August 2008
Pachauri R K. 2008. Climate change and the role of nuclear energy. Presentation made at the Bhabha Atomic Research
Centre, Mumbai, India, August 2008
Pachauri R K. 2008. Climate change and urbanization: challenges for the future. Presentation made at the New York
Summit, New York, USA, June 2008
Pachauri R K. 2008. Climate change and water. Presentation made at the Kobe Symposium, Kobe, Japan, May 2008; at
the Zaragoza Expo, Zaragoza, Spain, July 2008
Pachauri R K. 2008. Climate change and water-related disaster. Presentation made at the Tokyo Symposium, Tokyo,
Japan, May 2008
Pachauri R K. 2008. Climate change impacts on South East Asia. Presentation made at the World Green Energy Forum,
Korea, October 2008
Pachauri R K. 2008. Climate change, sustainability and industry: challenges and opportunities. Presentation made at
the ArcelorMittal Leadership Conference, New Delhi, India, September 2008
Pachauri R K. 2008. Climate change: a call for action. Presentation made at IPCC Meeting, Geneva, Switzerland,
September 2008
Pachauri R K. 2008. Climate change: a call for enhanced cooperation. Presentation made at the DFID (Department for
International Development) Environment, Infrastructure, and Livelihoods Groups’ Annual Conference, London, UK, July
2008
Pachauri R K. 2008. Climate change: challenges and opportunities for the business sector. Presentation made at the
JP Morgan China Conference, Beijing, China, April 2008
Pachauri R K. 2008. Climate change: challenges and opportunities for the tourism and travel industry. Presentation
made at the CEO Challenge 2008: PATA (Pacifi c Asia Travel Association), Bangkok, Thailand, April 2008
Pachauri R K. 2008. Climate change: challenges and opportunities for the corporate sector. Presentation made at the
Chicago Business, Chicago, Illinois, USA, July 2008
Pachauri R K. 2008. Climate change: implications for India parliament. Presentation made at New Delhi, India, April
2008
Pachauri R K. 2008. Climate change: implications for India. Presentation made at the India Habitat Centre, New Delhi,
India, July 2008
Pachauri R K. 2008. Climate change: issues and challenges for India. Presentation made at Delhi DoPT (Department
of Personnel and Training), New Delhi, India, July 2008
Pachauri R K. 2008. Climate change: key fi ndings from the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report. Presentation made at
The Second GEOSS Asia-Pacifi c Symposium: the role of Earth observations in tackling climate change, Tokyo, Japan,
April 2008; Yale Conference of Governors on Climate Change, USA, April 2008; Kuala Lumpur University, Kuala
Lumpur, May 2008; California Air Resources Board, Sacramento, California, USA, June 2008; the UNIDO (United
Nations Industrial Development Organization) Goodwill Ambassadorship Event, Vienna, Austria, July 2008; 16th
Convention of the India Geological Congress, Hyderabad, India, February 2009
Pachauri R K. 2008. Climate change: main conclusions from the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report. Presentation made
in Madrid, Spain, October 2008
Pachauri R K. 2008. Climate change: risks and opportunities for business. Presentation made at TiE (The Indus
Entrepreneurs), Bangalore, India, December 2008
Pachauri R K. 2008. Climate change: the role of business initiatives. Presentation made at the FICCI–IIFA Business
Forum, Bangkok, June 2008
Pachauri R K. 2008. Climate change: the role of science and technology. Presentation made at the Forum on Climate
Change and Science and Technology Innovation, Beijing, China, April 2008
Pachauri R K. 2008. Climate change: what is next? Managing the interconnected challenges of climate change, energy
security, ecosystems, and water. Presentation made at the ETH (Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule) University,
Zurich, Switzerland, November 2008
Pachauri R K. 2008. Corporate social and environmental responsibility. Presentation made at the AMCHAM
(American Chamber of Commerce in India), Kolkata, India, December 2008
Pachauri R K. 2008. Environmental challenges in India. Presentation made at the Bombay Chambers AGM, Mumbai,
India, June 2008
Pachauri R K. 2008. Facing the challenge of climate change. Presentation made at the Toyota IAB (International
Advisory Board) 18th Regular Meeting, Nagoya, Japan, September 2008
Pachauri R K. 2008. Findings of the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report and their policy relevance. Presentations made at
the 12th KAST (Korean Academy of Science and Technology) International Symposium, Seoul, Korea, November 2008
Pachauri R K. 2008. Global warning! The impact of meat production and consumption on climate change.
Presentation made at the CIWF (Compassion in World Farming), London, UK, September 2008
Pachauri R K. 2008. Government policy’s role in promoting green technologies. Presentation made in Seville, Spain,
October 2008
Pachauri R K. 2008. How climate change will affect the IT industry. Presentation made at the 16th World Congress on
Information Technology, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, May 2008
Pachauri R K. 2008. Less meat, less heat: impacts of livestock on climate change. Presentation made at the EVA
(European Vending Association), Brussels, Belgium, August 2008
Pachauri R K. 2008. Media and climate change: getting the message to the people. Presentation made in Roanoke,
Virginia, October 2008
Pachauri R K. 2008. Natural resource dimension of sustainable mountain development. Presentation made in
Dehradun, India, November 2008
Pachauri R K. 2008. Our vulnerable Earth: climate change, the IPCC, and the role of generation green. Presentation
made at the Wallace Wurth Public Lecture, Sydney, Australia, October 2008
Pachauri R K. 2008. Recommendations to administrative reforms commission. Presentation made at the
Administrative Reforms Commission November 2008, India, November 2008
Pachauri R K. 2008. Refl ections on the future of the IPCC. Presentation made at the World Meteorological
Organization Executive Council, Geneva, Switzerland, June 2008
Pachauri R K. 2008. Role of science in policy formulation: the case of climate change. Presentation made at Thailand,
October 2008
Pachauri R K. 2008. Strategy to combat climate change in Asia and the Pacifi c. Presentation made at the Institute for
Global Environmental Strategies, Yokohama, Tokyo, June 2008
Pachauri R K. 2008. Technologies and strategies for tackling climate change. Presentation made at the Cleantech
Annual Conference, Berlin, Germany, October 2008
Pachauri R K. 2008. The challenge of climate change: dealing with energy and environment policy. Presentation made
at the Communication Meeting of Indian Oil Corporation Ltd, New Delhi, India, August 2008
Pachauri R K. 2008. The climate change challenge. Presentation made at the Smart Energy Strategies, Zurich,
Switzerland, September 2008
Pachauri R K. 2008. The global climate change challenge. Presentation made at the Hillary Institute Symposium,
Christchurch, New Zealand, June 2008
Pachauri R K. 2008. The imperatives of sustainable development. Presentation made at the Brasilia Forum, Brasilia,
Brazil, June 2008
Pachauri R K. 2008. The IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change): science at the service of policy making.
Presentation made at the Hungarian Academy of Sciences, Budapest, Hungary, April 2008
Pachauri R K. 2008. Towards a low-carbon society. Presentation made at the AREVA T&D Post-CIGRE, Paris, France,
September 2008
Pachauri R K. 2008. Urban response to climate change. Presentation made at the Science and Innovation Week, Mexico
City, Mexico, September 2008, organized by the New York Academy of Sciences
Pachauri R K. 2008. What business could do for global environmental challenges. Presentation made at the CCICED (China
Council for International Cooperation on Environment and Development) Round Table Meeting, Beijing, China, April 2008
Pachauri R K. 2009. Challenge of economic growth and sustainable use of natural resources. Presentation made at the
NALCO (National Aluminium Company Ltd) Foundation Day Lecture, Orissa, India, January 2009
Pachauri R K. 2009. Climate change and sustainability. Presentation made at The Annual Nobel Peace Prize Forum,
Minnesota, USA, March 2009
Pachauri R K. 2009. Climate change: challenges in Asia and Pakistan. Presentation made in Islamabad, January 2009
Pachauri R K. 2009. Climate change: global overview. Presentation made at the Ministerial Study Tour to Antarctica,
Troll Research Station, Antarctica, February 2009
Pachauri R K. 2009. Climate science: precise answers and robust conclusions? Refl ecting on the IPCC Fourth
Assessment. Presentation made at the API Delhi, India, January 2009
Pachauri R K. 2009. Ecotopia dreams and role of young presidents in protecting the environment. Presentation made
at Abu Dhabi Young Presidents’ Organization, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, January 2009
Pachauri R K. 2009. Energy independence with global cooperation – challenges and solutions. Presentation made at
the Petrotech 2009, Delhi, India, January 2009
Pachauri R K. 2009. Global energy: poverty assessment. Presentation made at the Delhi Sustainable Development
Summit 2009: Special event – energy for the poor, New Delhi, India, 7–9 February 2009, organized by TERI
Pachauri R K. 2009. Impacts of climate change in Africa: a gender perspective. Presentation made at the International
Women Leaders Colloquium, Monrovia, Liberia, March 2009
Pachauri R K. 2009. Impacts of climate change on the Tibetan Plateau. Presentation made at the Tibetan Plateau
Conference, New York, USA, January 2009
Pachauri R K. 2009. Into a warming world. Presentation made at the State of the World Symposium, Washington, DC,
USA, January 2009
Pachauri R K. 2009. Key fi ndings from the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report. Presentation made at the US Senate
Committee on Environment and Public Works, USA, February 2009
Pachauri R K. 2009. State of climate science: enabling enlightened policies. Presentation made at the International
Scientifi c Congress, Copenhagen, Denmark, March 2009
Maybe someone with a few days of spare time could total up the air miles for this little lot!!!!!
Richard D North has followed Pachauri and found that Pachauri mconfuses IPCC matters and his own personal business affairs.
Several examples of the IPCC paying for trips unconnected with IPCC matters.
Fortunately, the BBC were ready to leap to the IPCC's defence. In an article which vanished off the front page faster than a Himalayan glacier (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/8468358.stm), the BBC said:
God forbid that cast-iron irrefutable proof that the IPCC will cheerfully include any old rubbish in their reports, so long as it's "on message", should change the broad picture. Step back folks, nothing to see here...
The BBC claim credit for the first reporting of the "error":
Interestingly, if one follows the link to the 5th December article, one finds this breathtaking quite from one RK Pachauri, who is defending the IPCC & pooh-poohing a report which disagrees with the 2035 glacial melt date:
Let's just look at that last statement again: "verified by governments". Doesn't that just scare you to the marrow?
Back at the main article, Dr van Ypersele is waving his arms again, trying to divert attention...
Riiiiight. There's none so blind as will not see, I suppose.
Auntie then goes on to half-heartedly insinuate that it's all a bit of numerical dyslexia (it did this in earlier reports too):
Fortunately, that's been shown to be a load of utter b*ll*cks, and even the Beeb have had to push that idea down the agenda (their first reports stridently insisted it was mass dyslexia).
Meanwhile, another warmist said:
Naturally. Gravy trains are like glaciers you know. They don't just disappear all at once.
should, of course, have been
Do I get to edit for the IPCC now?
"Mr Pachauri dismissed the study as "voodoo science" and said the IPCC was a "sober body" whose work was verified by governments".
This is developing into a circle jerk. The Rudd government in Australia says that it relies on the experts like the IPCC for its advice and now the IPCC says that it relies on governments to verify its "science".
This is getting crazier and crazier.
Maybe a question in the parliament to the Australian Prime Minister on what verification has his government undertaken to confirm the validity of the work done by the IPCC is now in order.
How would he go about answering that?
The IPCC's "retraction" (if it can so be called) suggests that the problem arose from the failure to follow "the clear and well-established standards of evidence, required by the IPCC procedures". They failed to identify those procedures - or how the instant case represented a departure - so one is left to infer that from the situation. It cannot simply be that the information was wrong - that happens in the best of circumstances. Rather, it must be that the report relied upon a non-peer reviewed source, which presumably is forbidden by their procedures (and I'm happy to be corrected on this point, since I am drawing an inference).
On that basis, WGII has a few other problems. They utilize reports by Munich Re - which are not peer reviewed, and are produced by a source which has a vested financial interest. (While the use of reports from a group like Munich Re are in some cases acceptable, care needs to be taken. Consider the appropriateness of relying on this non peer reviewed source in Chapter 6, at s. 6.5.2, p. 337; Chapter 10, at s. 10.4.6.5, p. 487; and Chapter 19, at s. 19.4, p. 798). Indeed, it appears that they rewrote the disasters and hazards section, in part at the behest of or based on the suggestions of a Munich Re employee, who was acting as an expert reviewer (see:
http://ipcc-wg2.gov/AR4/SOD_COMMS/Ch01_SOD_Expert.pdf, at pages 18 & 121: the comments of Peter Hoeppe for Munich Re and the response. See also Roger Pielke Jnr.'s blog on this issue, including how the IPCC commentators misrepresented his views.).
They also cited additional WWF reports - the glacier report was used in both chapters 8 and 10 (in the latter chapter has the now infamous "2035" date); other WWF reports are cited in chapters 11, 12 and 13. Based on the publication data provided, there is no suggestion that the other reports are peer reviewed either.
It would really be interesting to know what the standards are supposed to be - and whether these sources (and their use) meets those standards.
Hmm...maybe I stumbled across the answer:
"IPCC studies only peer-review science. Let someone publish the data in a decent credible publication. I am sure IPCC would then accept it, otherwise we can just throw it into the dustbin"
Rejendra Pachauri (quoted 10 November 2009)
(source: http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/No-proof-of-Himalayan-ice-melting-due-to-climate-change/articleshow/5213045.cms by way of Roger Pielke Jnr's blog)
Such a tempting suggestion, too.
Sigh...
Now I'm just confused. From the "New Scientist", 11 January 2010:
"However, the lead author of the IPCC chapter, Indian glaciologist Murari Lal, told New Scientist he 'outright rejected' the notion that the IPCC was off the mark on Himalayan glaciers. 'The IPCC authors did exactly what was expected from them,' he says.
'We relied rather heavily on grey [not peer-reviewed] literature, including the WWF report,' Lal says. 'The error, if any, lies with Dr Hasnain's assertion and not with the IPCC authors.' "
Sooo...back to square 1. They readily rely on non-peer reviewed research, apparently, and in so doing, think they are acting appropriately. What ARE these standards that Pachauri is rabbiting on about?
in that the IPCC's peer review system did not work to reject the hockey stick graph, the hanno look-a-like graph or the glacier speculation i can see no reason to believe that anything in the AR4 is properly established science.
It is certainly not a matter of ONE mistake.
OK. For what it's worth: it appears that Lal is possibly more correct than Pachauri. They are permitted to use "grey" literature (non peer reviewed). Annex 2 to Appendix A, however, suggests that it primarily was intended to be used when considering "mitigation and adaptation strategies". The actual language from annex 2 is instructive:
"Because it is increasingly apparent that materials relevant to IPCC Reports, in particular, information about the experience and practice of the private sector in mitigation and adaptation activities, are found in sources that have not been published or peer-reviewed (e.g., industry journals, internal organisational publications, non-peer reviewed reports or working papers of research institutions, proceedings of workshops etc) the following additional procedures are provided."
So, the use of these documents is to be exceptional. In that regard, Lal's comment that they relied "heavily" on such materials suggests that they have breached this restriction - though that would need to be considered on a case by case basis.
When citing non-published, non-peer reviewed materials, they are supposed to do the following:
"a. Critically assess any source that they wish to include. [...]
b. Send the following materials to the Working Group/Task Force Bureau Co-Chairs who are coordinating the Report:
- One copy of each unpublished source to be used in the IPCC Report
- The following information for each source:
- Title
- Author(s)
- Name of journal or other publication in which it appears, if applicable
- Information on the availability of underlying data to the public
- English-language executive summary or abstract, if the source is written in a non English language
- Names and contact information for 1-2 people who can be contacted for more information about the source."
Of course, I'm not sure I'd categorize the WWF as "private sector", but perhaps that's being picky.
See: http://www.ipcc-wg2.gov/AR5/extremes-sr/extremes_documents/ipcc-principles-appendix-a.pdf
The idea that it a minor error does not wash. The AR4 not only misquoted a non-peer reviewed article. They also embellished it by saying it was "highly likely" that the glaciers would disappear by 2035. In AR4 language that suggests greater than a 90% probability. No such calculation could have taken place.
It is not then for the head of the organisation to say this is an isolated problem. Neither is it for him to state the the internal controls were adequate generally. If it was an NHS hospital, a social services dept or the Metropolitan Police, an external investigation would be launched to learn the extent of the failings and make recommendations to stop it happening again. Pachauri has not even started an internal enquiry.
http://shandonclimate.blog.com/2010/01/24/un-ipcc-%e2%80%93-the-need-for-independent-audit-and-oversight/
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