I can't see any Euro country being brave enough to give up the currency. It's like a pitcher plant. There is a point of no return where you can't escape being absorbed.

EM
I predict that the Republic will soon be joining us out of the EU (if we get a proper Brexit), They had to have several bites at the cherry before they finally agree to join and that was mostly because we were in. Now they seem likely to be net contributors and their business tax system is under threat by the EU move towards tax harmonisation. Once out with us we can have as close a relationship as both sides wish. Win, Win.

EM - thanks; I am now better informed :-)

What's keeping the Assembly shut down is stubbornness.

Sinn Fein refuse to work with the DUP until Arlene Foster resigns.

The DUP refuse to allow Sinn Fein to dictate who leads the DUP.

Mark Hodgson

The DUP positoin on a hard border has hardened (sorry) since the election as it became clear that the alternative to a hard land border was an Irish Sea border.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-45571565

Ironically both Sinn Fein and the hardline republicans would also like a hard border because it would allow them to push for a border poll.

A hard border might also make them more likely to win it. A recent poll found that in a no-Brexit future 52% would prefer staying in the UK.in a Post-Brexi future 52% would favour a united Ireland.

Of course, even a NI border vote for a united Ireland might not convince an Irish government faced with the prospect of loyalist terrorism, 32 DUP TDs holding the balance of power in the Dail and an extra €3000 per taxpayer.

A further thought, EM, are you right about DUP policy regarding the border? Goodness knows, I don't trust the BBC, but out of laziness I've just looked at their online piece about this since it came up quickly on a google search:

"The DUP is in favour of Northern Ireland leaving the EU but says that Brexit does not mean "leaving Europe".

It adds that it will prioritise maintaining the CTA between the UK and the Republic of Ireland.

Aims:

frictionless border with the Irish Republic; assisting those working or travelling in the other jurisdiction
Northern Ireland established as a hub for trade from the Irish Republic into the broader UK market
comprehensive free trade and customs agreement with the EU
arrangements to facilitate ease of movement of people, goods and services"

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2017-39976319

"Reality Check: Where do parties stand on Irish border?"

Entropic Man, thanks for that thoughtful analysis. A few observations, not necessarily counter-points, but just thoughts, on which I'd welcome your views:

1. Which European Court are you referring to? Although the ECJ should cease to have any role when the UK (inc. NI) leaves the EU, we will still be fully signed up to the ECHR.

2. What are the prospects for power-sharing getting up and running again? Why can't they get it back together again, when it does indeed seem to have been a qualified success for a reasonable period?

3. Ironic that what seems to have brought it down (though it might have been an excuse) was the "green" scandal.

4. Is it not the case that the EU is the problem, regarding the NI/ROI border? I have not heard a word from either the ROI government or the UK government suggesting they want a "hard" border. Without the issue of the EU, the problem could be solved in a trice. So, I suppose it's refreshing that the EU is finally using more emollient language regarding the border issue; but why didn't they do so sooner?

5. I can understand Catholic concerns regarding the influence of the DUP in the UK government currently, but that being the case, surely they should be working hard to get power-sharing up again?

TinyCO2

The Troubles were about catholic civil rights in NI, with a side order of ROI cultural links. They were discriminated against culturally and financially by a Protestant majority government. The Good Friday Agreement equalised the situation with the European Court, Westminster and the ROI government as referees.

The majority of Catholics still see themselves as Irish, and have links across the border. Tyrone turned red with flags before their team played their All-Ireland final in Dublin recently.

The GFA is a qualified success. The Assembly worked for 20 years and the death rate dropped from 100 a year to a couple a year as all but the most hardilne IRA shut down. Now the Assembly has collapsed, The DUP are pushing a hard Brexit and a hard border because they see them as isolating the North from the ROI.

The Catholics see the same possibility, but as a threat, rather than as a benefit. They also see the DUP/May pact as biasingng Westminster against them; the removal of the European court and the collapse of the Assembly as reducing their civil rights.

Past experience suggests that this would push them back towards their old armed struggle.

Don't think of such discussion as endorsing terrorism. Think in terms of cause and effect

Pcar thanks, a good pair of articles. The big problem for the failing EU economies is the Euro. To break free would be extraordinarily difficult. If we'd been in, we wouldn't have had a referendum, let alone voted out. Devaluation may be painful but it's the tool to keep people moderately happy while taking stuff away from them. Most of old EU, very much including us, are living beyond our means. Even Germany is sliding that way with its obsession with cutting CO2. However Germany is smart enough to stop hurting itself. So far, we're not. We can't have high social care without high tax income to pay for it. The boom years in the southern EU were built on borrowing. Ours were built on selling assets and borrowing. We've run out of assets and the loan payments are killing us. Brexit is almost necessary to stop us taking money for granted. What the EU does is harder to fathom. I doubt it will split up unless the division is into 2 different Euro states.