Yet another quotation GC that assumes that the majority of the Diamond Princess population were elderly, totally ignoring the crew who constituted more than 40% of the population. Admittedly many would have been out of sight on lowermost decks, but really...

More info, and useful links at the bottom of the post:

http://joannenova.com.au/2020/03/crush-the-curve-italian-town-with-first-death-in-italy-stopped-the-virus/

"The first epicentre in Italy was Vò, a little town of 3,000. It was shut down, fully tested and twice and nine days apart. By testing, isolating, and tracking, they reduced the spread to almost nothing, and this is despite the extraordinary discovery that when the first death happened, already 3% of the town had the disease."

" At that point surely the Italian government should have immediately closed everything?"

" 70% asymptomatic or mild — good but ominous data"

"Italy’s death rate of known cases is shockingly high (which is why I gave up calculating it weeks ago). These numbers are similarish to the Chinese rates where roughly 80% were described as asymptomatic or mild. It probably just depends on the definition of “mild”:The best estimates we have are from "

"The Diamond Princess where everyone was tested and South Korea which has done more testing per capita than anywhere. Respectively, the mortality rates were 1% and 0.9%. Given that the Diamond Princess passengers were older the mortality rate in a normal demographic group might be as low as 0.5%."

https://time.com/5791466/ducks-locust-plague/

Chinese bred ducks are the secret weapon in the fight against locusts

Could crispy Peking Duck be a new sales success?

Mar 21, 2020 at 9:53 AM AK
Will they have the time and inclination to buy and eat food?

"The idea is to keep infections and thus critical cases to a level at which the hospitals can cope.

Mar 21, 2020 at 9:05 AM TinyCO2"

ie, slow the spread amongst the UK population.

London may be ahead on infections, it may be ahead on acquiring Herd Immunity.

Good to know that San Franciscans have got priorities right. All shops are closed except food stores, pharmacies, bicycle repair shops and cannabis dispensaries.

"Perhaps I am too cynical...... "
Mar 21, 2020 at 8:36 AM Mark Hodgson

No, you are not.

The EU has never suffered financial recession. Governments, Companies, Households, Individuals etc all have to make cut backs when income falls. Luxury Goods and Vanity Projects are the first to be cut back.

"Management Consultants" charge a fat fee to go into struggling companies before announcing that a third of all employees and expenditure should be cut.

If the EU could engage the services of some German Management Consultants, they will recommend that Germany will not finance the EU's attitude of eating rich and fortified Gateau, while peasants are forced to eat cattle cake. The scaled down EU might survive, and be worth a second chance.

stewgreen, I corrected that to 23 days but the stuff I've read this morning puts it at 22. The figure comes from time of infection to onset of symptoms a median of 5 days and time from admission to hospital and death is about 18 days (assuming that there are ventillators). So someone catching the disease today won't drop dead today. Fatality rate is the number of people who die as a percentage of all the people infected. You can't use the current number of infected because the figures are still rising. Even if you stopped transmission totally today, people would continue to develop the disease, get sick, go to hospital and die. So the number of deaths keep rising for about 22/23 days afterwards.

Something like 50-80% of cases are symptomless. Some don't show symptoms for as long as 14 days before symptoms. Some shed the disease before they show symptoms. So you could be sat next to someone with it and not know. Not only can the disease be spread by hand/mouth as it can survive on surfaces for 3 days, it can remain in the air for several hours. So you could catch it in the pub from someone who sat at your table Wednesday if the pub's cleaning routine isn't very good.

It's estimated that without mitigation each person on average infects 2.6 people. That would result in 80% of the population getting infected. Fatality is estimated to be about 1% (with access to vetillators). The idea is to keep infections and thus critical cases to a level at which the hospitals can cope.

https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-triggers-deficit-rules-escape-clause-to-boost-public-spending/
Mar 21, 2020 at 8:28 AM Mark Hodgson

I am guessing that BoJo/Sunak activated the UK version of the EU's prearranged Economic Disaster Plan before the EU did.

If each country takes financial responsibility for measures instigated at home, this is going to make life very difficult for countries and regions that rely on the Tourist Euro and Pound

"So, when the climate doesn't change and doesn't make a difference to people's lives, that's because it's "harder to spot" where we live. If we can't spot it, is it a crisis?

Mar 21, 2020 at 8:14 AM Mark Hodgson"

The Green Blob Peak Credibility Crisis is going to rise to Unprecedented levels throughout 2020.