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Discussion > Latest Hockey Stick

Here

Actually, it is the Gergis Australia study, Joelle and her team have corrected the various issue and resubmitted the study and it has been reviewed and accepted, in the face of the usual denier unpleasantness.

Conclusion:"Overall, we are confident that observed temperatures in Australasia have been warmer in the past 30 years than every other 30-year period over the entire millennium (90% confidence based on 12,000 reconstructions, developed using four independent statistical methods and three different data subsets). Importantly, the climate modelling component of our study also shows that only human-caused greenhouse emissions can explain the recent warming recorded in our region."

Add it to the list.

Jul 11, 2016 at 10:46 PM | Unregistered CommenterPhil Clarke

The Scientific Saints have arrived

Here

Jul 12, 2016 at 1:18 AM | Unregistered Commenterclipe

And here

Sibelius's difficulties were confirmed by others, including Steve McIntyre, but perhaps most significantly, by CSIRO's Nick Stokes, who is no sort of a sceptic. Stokes agreed with Sibelius that, when detrended, the correlations for the 27 proxies used in the Gergis reconstruction were insignificant, completely contradicting Gergis's paper. However, extraordinarily, Stokes also ran the calculations without detrending and found correlations that were significant.

I’ve run Steve’s code with and without detrending, and with and without the Quenouille correction. Without detrending (but with zero mean) or AR1 correction all (exc maybe Madang) proxies do seem significant

This seems to suggest that Gergis's declaration that the correlations were based on detrended data was false and that she and her co-authors had indeed fallen foul of the circular argument noted above. The finding of unprecedented warmth reported in the Gergis paper appears as though it is a function of the methodology used rather than of the underlying data.

Jul 12, 2016 at 1:50 AM | Unregistered Commenterclipe

clipe, I saw the Jo Nova article.

Latest Hockey Stick=Latest Climate Science Fiasco

It seems anyone can replicate the results fabricated in the original Hockey Stick, even if it takes a couple of attempts.

The MWP and LIA just won't be 'smoothed' to extinction

Jul 12, 2016 at 2:11 AM | Unregistered Commentergolf charlie

"and it has been reviewed and accepted"

Déjà vu all over again.

Jul 12, 2016 at 2:21 AM | Unregistered Commenterclipe

golf charlie,

https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1akI_yGSUlO_qEvrmrIYv9kHknq4

Jul 12, 2016 at 2:24 AM | Unregistered Commenterclipe
Jul 12, 2016 at 2:27 AM | Unregistered Commenterclipe

Déjà vu all over again.
Jul 12, 2016 at 2:21 AM | Unregistered Commenterclipe

Vujà dé.

Jul 12, 2016 at 11:10 AM | Unregistered CommenterMartin A

clipe, thank you for those links showing how the localised European Medieval Warm Period has been revealed as a World Wide Phenomenon, coinciding with all sorts of economic and cultural developments around the world. What a period of development it must have been. Warmer temperatures do seem better for all forms of life, just as temperatures have stopped rising, and may, if anything, be about to start to decline

With hindsight, and history, and science, and geology, and geography, and art and, and, and etc, so much of modern Climate Science can be buried in the Medieval Warm Period, and quietly forgotten. Many Climate Scientists have already buried their careers in trying to prove the MWP didn't exist, and seem to think this has already been forgotten. Gergis is a very handy reference for Climate Scientists with short memories.

Is the UK summer of 2016 shaping up to be the coldest and wettest on record? The Met Office don't seem to have revised their Global Warming guestimates yet.

Jul 12, 2016 at 2:55 PM | Unregistered Commentergolf charlie

The Gergis Boomerang is an Australian study to fix the broken Hockey Stick. It was thrown away once. It came back.

Jul 12, 2016 at 3:00 PM | Unregistered Commentergolf charlie

What usual denier unpleasantness are you talking about. This?


"This list allows any researcher who wants to access non publically available records to follow the appropriate protocol of contacting the original authors to obtain the necessary permission to use the record, take the time needed to process the data into a format suitable for data analysis etc, just as we have done. This is commonly referred to as ‘research’.
We will not be entertaining any further correspondence on the matter."

Jul 12, 2016 at 3:09 PM | Unregistered Commentergeronimo

Quite mild, given the treatment she received. No I meant ...

It's climate science bimbo-time again

Jul 12, 2016 at 4:14 PM | Unregistered CommenterPhil Clarke

Phil Clarke. Still quite mild. Unfortunate and unnecessary use of the word "bimbo", but hey it's in Australia. For some of my former Aussi colleagues that's almost a term of endearment! Nevertheless, unwarranted and not to be condoned.

Jul 12, 2016 at 4:51 PM | Unregistered CommenterSupertroll

Heh, Phil adds another 'hockey stick' to his list of ones with a prominent Medieval Warm Period. Phil, your own link from a previous discussion has a comment concluding with 'What hockey sticks?'. The fraud in Mann's Crook't Sticks is the straight shaft, not the blade. How many times do I have to tell you this?
===========================

Jul 13, 2016 at 1:26 AM | Unregistered Commenterkim

Phil Clarke, the use of the word Bimbo is sad and unnecessary. There are far more appropriate terms that could be used, which would have legal and scientific significance, should anyone choose to question whether this report represents value for taxpayer's money, which it didn't the first time, and is now worse with the passage of time.

Jul 13, 2016 at 1:27 AM | Unregistered Commentergolf charlie

Yup, the term 'bimbo' was first applied to brainless but decorative young men about London Town approximately a century ago. See the 'Drones Club'.
============

Jul 13, 2016 at 1:28 AM | Unregistered Commenterkim

Apply it to climate modelers of whatever sex. Brainless but decorative, yup, fits like a glove.
==================

Jul 13, 2016 at 1:30 AM | Unregistered Commenterkim

Or to hockey stick finding paleoclimatologists.
===============

Jul 13, 2016 at 1:31 AM | Unregistered Commenterkim

Heh, the unpleasantness last time(Four more years and holding) was primarily from Gergis and colleagues. They probably plagiarized more than a little from Steve and Jean S. Yeah, let's review that one. It's all in the archives of Climate Audit.
===================

Jul 13, 2016 at 1:34 AM | Unregistered Commenterkim

$300,000 to fix one word!

A clear example to explain: "But why would scientists say temperatures are rising when they aren't".

Jul 13, 2016 at 7:12 AM | Unregistered CommenterSteve Richards

11 June 2015

Heh, Phil adds another 'hockey stick' to his list of ones with a prominent Medieval Warm Period

Heh.

I'll have a medieval warm period - even if I need to redefine what medieval is!

Strange how medieval occurred at so many different times depending on where on the globe you look, huh?

Jul 13, 2016 at 8:41 AM | Unregistered CommenterPhil Clarke

On twitter I pointed out two of Gergis's blatant falsehoods in that article, the claim that it was just a typo, when in reality it was at best a major coding error and at worst a deliberate attempt to mislead, and the claim that they found the error 2 days before Climate Audit, directly contradicted by the email from Karoly.

There's now a blog by Brandon S about this.

As pointed out by Jo Nova, see Clipe's link, the revised graph shows that there was a clear MWP in Australasia and that it was as warm then as it is now.

Jul 13, 2016 at 9:10 AM | Registered CommenterPaul Matthews

Paul Matthews, use of the term 'Bimbo' to describe Gergis is so unfair to decent honest hardworking Bimbos everywhere.

It is also unfair to allow Gergis to take all the credit, when some of her coauthors have clearly been paid for allowing these libellous remarks about Bimbos to remain unchallenged in court. The University of Melbourne must be very pleased with all the publicity it is receiving.

Jul 13, 2016 at 10:20 AM | Unregistered Commentergolf charlie

Quite mild, given the treatment she received. No I meant ...

It's climate science bimbo-time again
Jul 12, 2016 at 4:14 PM | Unregistered CommenterPhil Clarke

So being called a bimbo on June 09, 2012 at 06:27 AM here justified her snotty rudeness to Steve McIntyre at an earlier date - on or before 1 June 2012 here?

Update: June 1 12>30 am:
Joelle Gergis has responded blowing off my request (cc to David Karoly, Valeria Masson-Delmotte (AR5 CLA) and the editor of Journal of Climate). She says that I should try to get the unarchived data from the original authors, saying snottily that this is “commonly called ‘research'” and that they “will not be entertaining further correspondence” on the matter.

Jul 13, 2016 at 11:59 AM | Registered CommenterMartin A

Martin A

I think you have nailed the problem. Ever since Steve McIntyre first questioned Mann's Hockey Stick, and Mann was rude back, Mann's earnings have increased.

Gergis did not achieve 'climate science super star status' with her first attempt, so she is trying again.

Next month, topless model Katie Price, aka Jordan, will designate herself a climate scientist, and attempt to breathe fresh life into Mann's drooping Hockey Stick, showing Gergis how to do climate science in proper Bimbo detail, with a full page spread in The Sun.

Rupert Murdoch will ensure news hungry Australians don't miss a thing, though there is a risk the MWP may become over inflated, rather than reduced to a simple hump in climate science history.

It is lucky that Phil Clarke drew fresh attention to false impressions made by climate scientists

Jul 13, 2016 at 1:29 PM | Unregistered Commentergolf charlie