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Discussion > First steps towards a sucessful Brexit

Expert Lives Matter.
===============

Jul 11, 2016 at 12:30 AM | Unregistered Commenterkim

SandyS, Cameron saw Farage and UKIP as splitting the Tory party support. The support for Brexit from traditional 'safe' Labour supporting areas caught out everyone.

Is Marinne Le Pen attracting support from the Left and Right? In the UK, a co-ordinated response from left and right proved impossible, after Juncker made it clear he didn't care. If the French people are made to feel, that the EU that they helped create, and have supported doesn't care about them, mainstream politicians are in for a rough time.

Have any of those unfortunates in the Jungle decided that the UK is not the best option yet?

Jul 11, 2016 at 12:47 AM | Unregistered Commentergolf charlie

golfCharlie.
Did reports of vile conditions in the capitol, ever destroy the appeal of the 'streets paved with gold' myth to migrating rural poor? Even today?

The Jungle is a purgatory of hope, become a near hell. The UK remains the land of promise, of jobs and gold. If the Saharan sands or the perils of a Mediterranean crossing in the hands of people traffickers did not stop them, a little barbed wire is just a minor obstacle in their quest for our green and pleasant land. Compared with escaping Colditz Castle, escaping the Jungle is nothing.

Jul 11, 2016 at 5:37 AM | Unregistered CommenterAlan kendall

golf charlie
I'm not an expert on French politics but here's my take.
In the past on the final round it has been Le Pan versus Sakozy or Hollande. Those supporters of the UMP or Socialist Party without a candidate have voted against Le Pen for fairly obvious reasons. Since Hollande got in several things have changed. Neither Sarkozy nor Hollande proved popular for various reasons, Hollande is at mid 20% approval and Manuel Valls is about the same so no popular candidate from either and only support fron dyed in the wool supporters. The immigration situation has got worse, and the situation at Calais is featured on the News regularly, Le Pen is probably the only one the public think might solve the problem, very much a "Take Back Control and give the UK back its problem" situation Of the Brexit result didn't go unnoticed, nor did the aftermath with Cameron quitting, Johnson disappearing and Farrage cutting and running. Le Pen is made of sterner stuff than them, she dumped her father from the FN when he became a liability despite his continued popularity in certain quarters. Angela Merkel and Germany are not that popular in a proportion of the population, Brexit has probably thrown France and Germany too close for their liking.

So in the same way the Brexit vote was down to a combination of reasons, some almost mutually exclusive, I think that next time the anyone but Le Pen vote will be reduced significantly. Should she get in the Junckers would have something to worry about.

Jul 11, 2016 at 8:15 AM | Unregistered CommenterSandyS

RC: PRINCE2, aren't all major government projects managed using PRINCE2 and aren't all government projects: over budget, late, useless, cancelled before completion or just horrendous?

Look at the NHS computerisation project, so bad, so late, so useless it was cancelled without any deliverable at the cost of 10 billion!

If that is management by experts - we can live without....

One expert may be useful, more than one, you get expert fatigue.

They argue with each other (not necessarily bad), but the agreed approach coming from a cabal of experts is usually a compromise that suits no one.

Jul 11, 2016 at 9:20 AM | Unregistered CommenterSteve Richards

SandyS on Jul 11, 2016 at 8:15 AM
"... Farrage cutting and running."

Are you saying that is what the French think?

Farage isn't cutting and running. He is still an MEP. He said he would do anything to help the British Government towards a successful Brexit, and I think stepping aside from leading UKIP helps towards that goal. It makes him slightly less 'party political'.

He has always said his goal was for Britain to leave the EU and he has accomplished all that he can as the leader of a party with one (sort of :) ) MP. He has been campaigning, non stop, well before ministers entered the fray and, having attained his goal, needs time to think what comes next. In addition, the party needs a new direction, or certainly refreshed, something that requires a new leader, with new ideas.

Also, UKIP has not been elected to run the country so leading the party gives him no extra powers but it would give him a lot of extra work, leading, and would give the media, the BBC especially, the opportunity to confuse the issues of the day with their own agenda.

I think he was hoping to explain that in the interview on BBC R4 that I mentioned in an earlier post, but the BBC didn't really want to know. They were still trying to score points, fighting the referendum campaign :)

I do think that 'Le Pen is made of sterner stuff', but she hasn't yet had her referendum, let alone won it.

Mind you, if we end up with a 'behind the sofa' PM, our exit will be under threat.

Jul 11, 2016 at 9:37 AM | Registered CommenterRobert Christopher

Alan Kendall 5:37 you need to re-read "The Grapes of Wrath". Why are those in the Jungle prepared to risk their lives to get out of the French EU, into Britain? Is it because they have been told that Britain is the land of milk and honey? Is France determined to make France seem as unappealing as possible to 'encourage' them to 'flee off'?

SandyS In the UK, the old style National Front was easy to lampoon, and did consist of racist bigots and thugs. Farage did not reinvent the NF. He started something different, pointing out that loss of sovereignty to the EU was creating many problems within the UK, without any means of the UK solving them, due to loss of sovereignty.

Some who were attracted to traditional National Front politics were drawn to UKIP, and so it has been easy for rivals and the media to find them for a quote to lampoon them with. What those people did not want to highlight was the fact that the average Brit has had enough of suffering the consequences of UK Politicians giving away the rights of Britain, and those politicians then claiming there was nothing they could do about it.

I am proud to be English (though 1/4 Irish). I am not a Nationalist or UKIP supporter, but I do support the UKIP message that if you can't modify the rules of your Golf Club, leave the club.

If Marinne Le Pen has retained her fathers supporters, and is attracting political support from those who are fed up with the loss of French Sovereignty, the French political establishment is in for a rough time. The French establishment has a slight aversion to ignoring the will of the people. French people have an aversion to being ignored by politicians.

Jul 11, 2016 at 9:59 AM | Unregistered Commentergolf charlie

Steve Richards on Jul 11, 2016 at 9:20 AM

Are you suggesting, instead of experts, we have people who know nothing about the subject? :)

I was overhearing, only a few weeks ago, how successful government projects were. (I didn't believe it either!)

Degrees in English Literature, PhDs even, appear to be the normal qualification for deciding on national energy policy. I suppose it is no worse than being a fashion designer.

My point was that, as projects containing new technology progress, there needs to be an opportunity to contest the assumptions and not use the process to steamroller the project into catastrophic wealth destruction. When we have the diesel emission scandal, that had evidence of malpractice for years, and windmill mania, ditto, something is going wrong with how these projects are managed. It appears that those controlling the funding, including MPs, have no understanding of what their responsibilities include, like obeying the Laws of Physics!

As an example, how many involved with windmill mania know that, roughly, if the wind speed halves, the available energy available has been reduced to 12.5% of the original? It means that an average wind speed is a rather meaningless measurement. I discussed this as an undergraduate, in a workshop, in 1974, but then, I wasn't reading for a degree in English Literature.

Jul 11, 2016 at 9:59 AM | Registered CommenterRobert Christopher

Robert Christopher, weather forecasting is a traditional skill that has developed with technology.

Climate Science is a development of Politics, Philosophy and Economics, designed for students of Politics Philosophy and Economics. That is why it is useless, and dominated by philosophical arguments.

If a windturbine fell down, and no one was there to witness it, would anybody notice?

Jul 11, 2016 at 11:26 AM | Unregistered Commentergolf charlie

SandyS on Jul 11, 2016 at 8:15 AM
"... Farrage cutting and running."

Are you saying that is what the French think?

Farage isn't cutting and running. He is still an MEP. He said he would do anything to help the British Government towards a successful Brexit, and I think stepping aside from leading UKIP helps towards that goal. It makes him slightly less 'party political'.
Jul 11, 2016 at 9:37 AM | Registered CommenterRobert Christopher

I just got home from a weekend-long party on the Normandy coast, with around 100 guests and where I was the only Brit. Intense interest in Brexit. Some interesting comparisons were made with Britain standing alone in 1940 and a general view that referendums that produce the 'wrong' result get ignored in France. Lots of well-informed and detailed questions to which I could only answer 'I don't know'.

_________________________________________________

I think Farage did exactly the right thing to step aside from the UKIP leadership at that instant.

For a start he deserves a rest.

And he may well recognise that the talents needed for a successful implementation of Brexit - tact, diplomacy, negotiation - may be quite different from those needed to get to the stage where there has been a referendum and the result was 'leave'.

Jul 11, 2016 at 11:27 AM | Registered CommenterMartin A

There has been much disparaging of experts here. If you want to see democracy working at its best watch a debate on a serious subject with potential wide moral and/or legal implications in the Lords. I watched some of the debate on using a donor's mitochondrial DNA (a former colleague's wife suffered from the disease, hence my interest). A real debate contributed from across the entire House, informed, respectful and utterly compelling.

And some here, the same people advocating democracy, are hankering for the old days when the Lords consisted of hereditary peers. Give me strength!

Jul 11, 2016 at 11:51 AM | Unregistered CommenterSupertroll

Supertroll, some here realise that giving Climate Scientists control of Politics and Economics, without any Scientific evidence, or Democratic mandate, was a bad move.

Hereditary Peers may have had numerous failings, but they still did a better job than Climate Scientists.

Jul 11, 2016 at 12:05 PM | Unregistered Commentergolf charlie

"First steps towards a sucessful Brexit?"

Daily Telegraph: BREXIT campaigner Andrea Leadsom is poised to quit the Tory leadership race, according to reports ....

"If Mrs Leadsom does withdraw from the contest, it means the Conservative Party membership will not be required to vote in order to elect one of the two candidates as the country's next leader."

At least the Tory party will save on postage.

If true, will it be the Brexiters who shape Brexit, or the losers, or the indifferent.

May has promised 'Brexit means Brexit' :)

Added:
New headline:
Second chance for Michael Gove as Andrea Leadsom backs out of leadership race

Still not certain what will happen!

Jul 11, 2016 at 12:10 PM | Registered CommenterRobert Christopher

Govey should be given the chance to be a candidate, or Mrs Surveillance will be anointed by acclamation (bad thing). But GoveyBoy will be dead meat and may not wish to be humiliated (again). What a sad state of affairs. At least Mrs S has promised that a Brexiteer will be in charge of EU negotiating (Master Gove perhaps).

Jul 11, 2016 at 12:39 PM | Unregistered CommenterSupertroll

golfCharlie.
There are several Lords who do not support cAGW or warn of the consequences of decarbonization of the energy supply, whereas in the Commons.....?

Jul 11, 2016 at 12:44 PM | Unregistered CommenterSupertroll

EXPERTS

There are no experts and it may be millenia before even one is discovered. However there are a great many people who claim to be experts and far too many others who believe them ^.^

Jul 11, 2016 at 12:46 PM | Registered CommenterDung

Supertroll on Jul 11, 2016 at 11:51 AM

The problem occurs when experts are not acting like experts, due to carelessness or deliberate misjudgement. So many knew that Mid Staffs Hospital was not fit for purpose. So many in Rotherham Social Services knew they were not fit for purpose. So many involved in NHS IT knew it was doomed. Then there was the Fire Service Control System.

None of these were accidents that happened in an instant: they developed over months, years.

Sometimes, the problem is noticed and the remedy fails, but in many cases the problem isn't even acknowledged.

Fracking is moving forward, slightly, and windmills are not the flavour of the month, but they are still being promoted as saving the Planet! Why, when we know that their beneficial effects are negligible and the damage to our energy industry is great?

A better word would be 'professionalism'. Often, with a big project, it is impossible for one person to know all that needs to be known, but it is up to the professional to consult with others, and know who to trust by knowing enough of the subject to make a judgement.

That is what went wrong with windmills and diesel emissions. The facts have been known for years, but those controlling the money either didn't understand their errors or they didn't want to understand: it wasn't their money, and they were profiting from their mistakes.

Jul 11, 2016 at 12:47 PM | Registered CommenterRobert Christopher

Supertroll on Jul 11, 2016 at 12:39 PM

It is perplexing that so many questioned Boris's commitment to Brexit, a proper Brexit, not Brexit without sovereignty, yet were appalled that Gove felt duty bound to do his duty.

Jul 11, 2016 at 12:56 PM | Registered CommenterRobert Christopher

Official

Leadsom has withdrawn from leadership race :(

Jul 11, 2016 at 1:03 PM | Registered CommenterDung

Robert Christopher
The French people I have spoken to find the whole thing bizarre, they can understand Cameron going but Johnson not standing for Tory leadership is puzzling and Farrage quitting is seen as very strange. What they'll make of Angela Leadsom pulling out of the election for PM I don't know. Possibly "what a way to run a country".

Jul 11, 2016 at 1:12 PM | Unregistered CommenterSandyS

Robert Christopher I am more than willing to substitute for "expert" the word "professional" because as I've already stated, I don't particularly want the Lords stuffed with academics, especially those with little real knowledge of the real world. I speak from bitter experience. At UEA I believe I was the only person (other than Paul Dennis) with industry experience. Some claimed it, but it was in the form of consultancies.

Jul 11, 2016 at 1:47 PM | Unregistered CommenterSupertroll

SandyS on Jul 11, 2016 at 1:12 PM
"... they can understand Cameron going ...
Cameron went off in a huff, because he lost, after promising that 'the Government will implement what you decide'.
He criticised us for wanting to quit an expensive, damaging, dysfunctional club, but he quit his job.
I think we can understand it but it isn't what the nation wanted, or deserved. And it does diminish Eton and an Oxford PPE.

... but Johnson not standing for Tory leadership is puzzling ...
They don't understand. They are not part of our demos.

... and Farrage quitting is seen as very strange."
It doesn't to many UKIPers. My take on it is in my earlier post.

What they'll make of Angela Leadsom pulling out
I think she didn't realise just how real the political tussles are. I have seen it, though not experienced it directly, and it is the one that you don't see coming that hits you for six. In boxing, it is when you can get back on your feet, but they still stop the fight.

To the French, Britain is a foreign country, a different demos.

The vacuum was created by Cameron's pressure on his party's MPs to be Remainers, the restrictions on Brexit ministers including their late starting and organising and no state resources, in spite of the Government's policy of letting the people decide. Their organisation was underhand as well as a failure:
The Guardian [! :) ]: How remain failed: the inside story of a doomed campaign

We, all of us, will have to wait to see what Teresa's plans are as the vote is not going out to the Tory members so she won't have the opportunity to campaign.

If she includes Brexit supporters (including non-Tories or even non-MPs :) ) in the Brexit team and delivers a clean break, with no Brussels jurisdiction over us, with the help of business and legal expertise (not them again!), then the Tories will benefit, Britain will benefit and, ultimately Europe will benefit.

If she leaves Osborne as Chancellor of the Exchequer, or gives the Brexit negotiations to a Remainer like Cameron who doesn't understand how to negotiate, then we are heading for choppy waters, again.

To have waited for Cameron's renegotiations is once too many. For a repeat, when the country has voted for Brexit and the Continent has accepted the decision and realised that they are on the back foot, would be horrific.

Our position needs to be sold to the World. We have made a statement and now we need to hold firm.. If South Korea, the US and several Commonwealth nations are queuing up to trade with us, why not spend time in the public eye on this and beaver away on the 'difficulties' behind the scenes? They will come around, eventually.

Jul 11, 2016 at 2:37 PM | Registered CommenterRobert Christopher

Supertroll on Jul 11, 2016 at 1:47 PM
"Some claimed it, but it was in the form of consultancies."

They are the most dangerous!

It is better to be a Jack of all (or many) trades, and master of one, and keep to it!

Jul 11, 2016 at 2:44 PM | Registered CommenterRobert Christopher

Supertroll, the Brexit referendum has allowed quite a lot of Tory Party dirty laundry to be washed in public. The Labour Party MPs have started washing theirs, but a sinister force called Momentum does not want that to happen.

The House of Commons may have had a lot of embarrassing Green stains removed, without a Referendum or General Election being called. But no one knows.

The traditional silly season in British Politics doesn't normally start until some time after Wimbledon, but with a month to get properly warmed up, this year could be an unprecedented spectacular display.

Within a week or so, the Opposition may know what they are supposed to be opposing, but the Opposition are too busy opposing each other.

Jul 11, 2016 at 2:59 PM | Unregistered Commentergolf charlie

Big McC Momentum and Lies?

Time for Unite to have a vote of No Confidence

Jul 11, 2016 at 5:54 PM | Unregistered Commentergolf charlie