Click images for more details



Recent comments
Recent posts
Currently discussing

A few sites I've stumbled across recently....

Powered by Squarespace

Discussion > Are Geological Paleo-Climate Records Relevant to The Climate Debate?

As I just mentioned on one of the recent cartoon posts, Phil's brief is inadequate and outdated. Were I he, I'd be angry.

Maybe it's yet to come.

Apr 19, 2016 at 1:39 AM | Unregistered Commenterkim

The cool thing about the Piltdown Mann's Crook't Stick and the Marcott/Shakun elevator shaft is the obviousness of the deceptive statistics. It's as blatant as the deceit of the public by the authors, and closely intertwined in motive and execution.

They told lies, and the lies lie like bones in the desert, exposed, dessicated, revelatory.

Apr 19, 2016 at 1:47 AM | Unregistered Commenterkim

kim, your use of English is poetic BUT:

de secco is where desiccate originates, hence one 's' and two 'c's. I have dried up nuts to prove it, and had a bit of an argument with Word Perfect about 25 years ago! Some Spell Checkers still knead learning proper.

Apr 19, 2016 at 2:57 AM | Unregistered Commentergolf charlie


and what do you know about astrophysics that I do not?

I don't know. What do you know about astrophysics.

I know what your answer is going to be; while the words used may not be those you would use, what Paul Dennis said is the same answer.

You're going to have to explain this, as I don't know which bit of what Paul Dennis said is the same answer.

Apr 19, 2016 at 7:58 AM | Unregistered Commenter...and Then There's Physics

This continuous assumption that anyone who does not agree with your delusion is dishonest becomes wearying after a while.
Apr 18, 2016 at 10:06 PM Entropic man

Well, EM, if it were an assumption, I'd agree that it might seem tiresome. But when you look at the reality it's clearly not an "assumption".

From the NSF press release:

But when you combine data from sites around the world, you can average out those regional anomalies and get a clear sense of the Earth's global temperature history.

What that history shows, the researchers say, is that during the last 5,000 years, the Earth on average cooled about 1.3 degrees Fahrenheit--until the last 100 years, when it warmed about 1.3 degrees F.

From their subsequent statement on an obscure website (after, for example, the Met Office posted the 'research shows unprecedented warming' headline on their Myclimate website - subsequently removed):

Thus, the 20th century portion of our paleotemperature stack is not statistically robust, cannot be considered representative of global temperature changes, and therefore is not the basis of any of our conclusions.

Not dishonest? If you say so, EM. If you say so.

My delusion? If not being convinced by what some people say is a delusion, fair enough. But only in the sense that not being convinced by what the God botherers who come to the door tell me is also a delusion.

Apr 19, 2016 at 8:38 AM | Registered CommenterMartin A

GC. You must have turned off your grammar corrector as well. Don't in believe technology modern then?

Apr 19, 2016 at 8:46 AM | Unregistered CommenterAlan Kendall

So either Martin A believes the 1.3F rise did not happen or Marcott et al were lying when they wrote '
Our primary conclusions are based on a comparison of the longer term paleotemperature changes from our reconstruction with the well-documented temperature changes that have occurred over the last century, as documented by the instrumental record.'

Or he could just be wrong, of course. But it is a bit rude to start flinging around accusations of dishonesty before you're sure of the facts.

Apr 19, 2016 at 9:22 AM | Unregistered CommenterPhil Clarke

Heh, gc, of course it looks wrong, now. I'm in the habit of ignoring spellchecker because usually, when I misspell, it's deliberate. Not this time, and if it's any explanation or excuse, I usually misspell that one, unless I think about it.

Apr 19, 2016 at 9:27 AM | Unregistered Commenterkim

You are amusing, Phil; do you not understand this point or are you not allowed to understand it. Clearly, you are bright enough to understand. Go watch Revkin's interview with Shakun.

Apr 19, 2016 at 9:30 AM | Unregistered Commenterkim

See Phil's dodge away from the lie? Are you misinformed, Phil, or ignorant? That dodge is disingenuous if you can't plead one of the former.

Apr 19, 2016 at 9:33 AM | Unregistered Commenterkim

Marcott's and Mann's sticks both have the same basic flaw; they smooth the more distant past to make the recent past seem exceptional. These were lies, and they were deliberate lies. Try to get that through your head; Nature will eventually force it through, but 'twere better for you if you'd smooth the path.

Apr 19, 2016 at 9:39 AM | Unregistered Commenterkim

Point is, it makes no difference if you use the 'unreliable' Marcott 'uptick', or the instrumental record, you get the same curve.


As Tamino says 'Look at the spike at the end. The big, and most importantly the steep, scary spike at the end. That’s not an artifact of the way proxy ages were computed, or how the reconstruction was done, or the effect of proxy drop-out as records become more sparse in the later period. It’s what the thermometers say. '

Apr 19, 2016 at 9:47 AM | Unregistered CommenterPhil Clarke

Yah, yah, the elevator shaft. Don't look now, but elevators go up and down, it's their nature. Step carefully.

Apr 19, 2016 at 9:49 AM | Unregistered Commenterkim

The lie is in the straightened shaft. You should be aware of that; you've been told often enough.

Apr 19, 2016 at 9:51 AM | Unregistered Commenterkim

From the episode "Hell":

Father Ted is demonstrating some plastic toy cows to Dougal.
Father Ted: …OK, one last time. These are small… but the ones out there are far away.


far away…

Apr 19, 2016 at 9:56 AM | Registered CommenterMicky H Corbett

Old, forgotten, far off things, and temperature excursions long ago.

Apr 19, 2016 at 9:57 AM | Unregistered Commenterkim

It's an artifact of the previous smoothing. Marcott and Shakun understand that; so should you, Phil.

Apr 19, 2016 at 10:04 AM | Unregistered Commenterkim

"What can be asserted without evidence can be dismissed without evidence."

Christpher Hitchins.

Apr 19, 2016 at 10:05 AM | Unregistered CommenterPhil Clarke

Are you suggesting that there really are large temperature variations in the paleo record, but they just look small because they're far away? ;-)

Apr 19, 2016 at 10:05 AM | Unregistered Commenter...and Then There's Physics

It’s what the thermometers say.
And how many thermometers were in use for most of the past 5,000 years? Oh, dear. None whatsoever, beyond 400 years ago! Do you not find it strange that the uptick starts about the same time that thermometers were put to use? Personally, I would call that too much of coincidence to be ignored; if you recall the “Hide the decline” fiasco, the proxies were continued to the present… can you guess which way the reconstructed temperatures went? And you still bang the drum for the hockey-stick. Oh, boy…

Apr 19, 2016 at 10:08 AM | Registered CommenterRadical Rodent

Smoothed away, honey. You should know that, too. It's always the same question, the same question. Ignorant, or disingenuous.

Apr 19, 2016 at 10:08 AM | Unregistered Commenterkim

aTTP: I watch the Sky at Night, and have spoken with Patrick Moore (no, not the Canadian one, but THE Patrick Moore) and Heather Couper. Now, will you accept me telling you how to do your job?

Apr 19, 2016 at 10:09 AM | Registered CommenterRadical Rodent

They are banging away at a table with trick legs. Don't blame them, they weren't in charge of the furnishings.

Apr 19, 2016 at 10:10 AM | Unregistered Commenterkim

Heh, does Ken miss the point because he can't understand it or because he won't understand it. You be the judge.

Apr 19, 2016 at 10:22 AM | Unregistered Commenterkim

Personally, I would call that too much of coincidence to be ignored; if you recall the “Hide the decline” fiasco, the proxies were continued to the present… can you guess which way the reconstructed temperatures went? 

Up, mostly.

Apr 19, 2016 at 10:25 AM | Unregistered CommenterPhil Clarke