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Discussion > Predictions for 2016

Just heard that NASA and NOAA have a press conference scheduled for Thursday.

My back of the envelope calculation suggests they will be announcing a GISS annual average for 2015 of about anomaly 0.87C

Jan 19, 2016 at 10:59 PM | Unregistered CommenterEntropic man

Oh, I think they will have massaged the figures a lot more than that, EM.

You obviously have doubts about the ingenuity of these people's imaginations; perhaps you need some correction...

Jan 19, 2016 at 11:32 PM | Registered CommenterRadical Rodent

RR, that would be fairly typical for climate science: In January 2016, EM predicts the GISS temperature anomaly for 2015.

Jan 20, 2016 at 3:37 PM | Unregistered Commentermichael hart

Radical Rodent & michael hart, it is a bit like the predictions of Nostradamus. They only make some sense after an event has happened, not before. Even then, 'interpretation' or 'homogenisation' is required, for 'best fit' purposes.

It does prove the inability of climate models to predict anything, ie they serve no purpose. If they can't predict anything, why do taxpayers have to pay for them?

Jan 20, 2016 at 4:03 PM | Unregistered Commentergolf charlie

Michael hart

Got it right too, 24 hours before they put it on their website. ☺

Jan 20, 2016 at 5:08 PM | Unregistered CommenterEntropic man

EM, did you predict this, or was it a 'leaked in advance of press release' sort of scenario intended by spin doctors to attract media attention?

Any chance of the forecast for 2016 being released by 2017, or is that expecting too much of climate science and modelling?

Jan 20, 2016 at 5:45 PM | Unregistered Commentergolf charlie

There have been a few other EM posts predicting/postulating items that then have been made as announcements by the AGW anointed. I doubt he is a retired teacher but is actually one of these 2 E's get you onto a Climate Change Scientist course and is now post grad or such member of the crew and is posting on paid time.

Jan 20, 2016 at 5:51 PM | Registered CommenterBreath of Fresh Air

Predicted it☺

Jan 20, 2016 at 6:27 PM | Unregistered CommenterEntropic man

Radical Rodent

Courtesy of Eli Rabbett , the current data in context.

Look at his second graph and you will see the NOAA raw data in pale blue. Note that pre 1940 the adjusted data is warmer than the raw data.

The climate scientists must be on your side. They fiddled the data to reduce the warming rate. Now why should they do that?

Jan 20, 2016 at 6:43 PM | Unregistered CommenterEntropic man

I have just predicted that during January 2016 there will be further falls in the price of crude oil, causing serious panic amongst Unreliable energy companies who can't survive without the subsidies promised by Ed Miliband in 2015.

The average household will enjoy the benefits of lower energy costs, but the BBC won't report this, concentrating on any bad news they can.

The Met Office will announce that we can expect more flooding and droughts due to global warming, as this is what they have always predicted.

Climate scientists will continue to Deny having made any wrong predictions due to climate science whenever their predictions are wrong.

Jan 20, 2016 at 7:06 PM | Unregistered Commentergolf charlie

EM, you don't really expect us to believe you, do you?
It was published two days ago.

From Google:

Global Temperature in 2015 – Climate Science, Awareness ...
csas.ei.columbia.edu/2016/01/19/global-temperature-in-2015/
2 days ago - Global surface temperature in 2015 was +0.87°C (~1.6°F) warmer than the ... at http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/ and http://www.columbia.edu/~mhs119/; ...

Jan 21, 2016 at 4:04 AM | Unregistered Commentermichael hart

Michael hart

Curse, they beat me to it! And I was feeling so smug, too😕

Jan 21, 2016 at 3:27 PM | Unregistered CommenterEntropic man

Breath of Fresh Air

Thank you for awarding me a PhD.☺

I was offered the chance to do a PhD on seed dispersal once, but declined. My mind hops about too much to spend three intense yoers on one project.

Jan 21, 2016 at 3:45 PM | Unregistered CommenterEntropic man

EM, I think you should offer Gavin Schmidt your services. You are probably just the type of person he's looking for.

Jan 21, 2016 at 3:54 PM | Unregistered Commentermichael hart

Michael hart

I doubt they would want an elderly amateur scientist.

Jan 21, 2016 at 4:02 PM | Unregistered CommenterEntropic man

A PhD based on 2 E's at A level is nothing to be proud of or worth much outside of Climate Science.

Jan 21, 2016 at 4:02 PM | Registered CommenterBreath of Fresh Air

Breath of fresh air

Going from two Es to a PhD sounds unlikely in any subject, despite the Carrollian state of our university system.

Examples?

Jan 21, 2016 at 5:07 PM | Unregistered CommenterEntropic man

EM, I think you should offer Gavin Schmidt your services. You are probably just the type of person he's looking for.

Jan 21, 2016 at 3:54 PM | Unregistered Commentermichael hart
Michael Hart

I doubt they would want an elderly amateur scientist.

Jan 21, 2016 at 4:02 PM | Unregistered CommenterEntropic man


Don't do yourself down, EM. Gavin is not even than that, yet.

Jan 21, 2016 at 7:22 PM | Unregistered Commentermichael hart

E+E? Can't put my finger on it but I have a recollection that would get you onto a UAE degree course. Should be taken as an urban myth in the absence of actual evidence.

Jan 21, 2016 at 7:44 PM | Unregistered CommenterMartin A

EM 4:02 "..... elderly amateur scientist "

You did very well to be given advance notice of US press releases. Is this on a need to be paid to know basis?

Jan 21, 2016 at 9:20 PM | Unregistered Commentergolf charlie

Golf Charlie

I know your conspiracy theories prevent you believing me, but I made an honest estimate. I made an educated guess that December would be as hot as November,

I added my guess to the available monthly averages for 2015 on the GISS website and calculated the 0.87C annual average..

No secret access necessary.☺

Jan 22, 2016 at 12:03 AM | Unregistered CommenterEntropic man

Golf Charlie

I know your conspiracy theories prevent you believing me, but I made an honest estimate. I made an educated guess that December would be as hot as November,

I added my guess to the available monthly averages for 2015 on the GISS website and calculated the 0.87C annual average..

No secret access necessary.☺

Jan 22, 2016 at 12:05 AM | Unregistered CommenterEntropic man

EM, over at WUWT, there appears to be some confusion about the provenance of the unprecedented 2015 temperatures claim. It just seemed very strange that as an amateur you worked it all out on the back of an envelope, and also forgot the same figures that had been previously trumpeted by the professionals.

Jan 22, 2016 at 12:32 AM | Unregistered Commentergolf charlie

EM, a real trick would be for you to predict NOW the anomaly at the end of 2016, re the title of this thread and the original intent of this annual outing.

Jan 22, 2016 at 3:42 PM | Unregistered CommenterTheBigYinJames

The Big Yin James

1998, the El Nino letdown year, was 0.16C warmer than 1997, the El Nino buildup year. If 2015 and 2016 follow the same pattern a similar warming should occur.

I suggest that the GISS 2016 value will come in at anomaly 1.03C.

Would you care to make a projection and explain your reasoning.

Jan 22, 2016 at 11:16 PM | Unregistered CommenterEntropic man