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Discussion > A Quick Re-Visit to my 2015 Election Prediction

By the end of the year when I usually review my predictions, I'll have forgotten the nuances of the election, so I'll revisit them now to see how I did. Here's what I said back ay the New Year:

I suppose being the year of the election, I have to give some sort of punt... my prediction is I think it will be a tiny conservative victory, but relying heavily on an unofficial coalition with some minority parties. I think this will be a tiny remnant of an obliterated LibDem party, a UKIP bloc of about 10 MPs, and the SNP who will be led by Alex Salmond and use the position to accelerate devolution. I predict this year will mark the maximum size of UKIP in parliament. Labour will be obliterated in Scotland, and Ed Miliband will leave after the election. I don't believe climate will feature heavily in the election, except in the roundabout notion of green energy taxes. Ed Davey WILL GO THIS YEAR.

Tiny conservative victory - check

Obliterated LibDems - check

UKIP having 10 MPs - bzzzzt

Labour obliterated in Scotland - check

Climate not featuring in the election - check

Ed Davey going - CHECK!

Still waiting for:

SNP demanding devolution (or indeed another referendum)
Ed Miliband going (I'll buy in the jelly and ice cream this morning)

So I'm going to give myself a pat on the back for political pundit, far better than the wretched BBC.

May 8, 2015 at 9:18 AM | Unregistered CommenterTheBigYinJames

Well we'll have the summer to see how the Conservatives are going to play Paris. My best hope is that they decide to let others take a lead.

May 8, 2015 at 10:53 AM | Unregistered CommenterTinyCO2

With an actual majority this time, I hope they take a knife to more of the green bloat.

May 8, 2015 at 12:39 PM | Unregistered CommenterTheBigYinJames

Ed Miliband going (I'll buy in the jelly and ice cream this morning) Check!!!

Impressive list BigYin, I got caught up with the pollsters and called it wrong like they did. Dan Hodges called it correctly interestingly with the exception of his UKIP 8% of the vote prediction.

May 8, 2015 at 5:58 PM | Registered CommenterBreath of Fresh Air

link to that Dan Hodges article
Yep spot on for Cameron prediction
"officially TCTC – too close to call. Except it isn’t. .. of the last 10 polls, 6 have shown Tory leads, 3 Labour, with one tie. 4 of those Tory leads have been 3 points or above ..There’s only one election narrative that matters. David Cameron is on course for Downing Street."

but spitefully wrong on his UKIP predictions
. "As I have written every week for the past 5 years, Ukip will not poll anything like 14% on 7 May
. ..It’s clear that Ukip will poll below, (possibly well below), double figures next week. "
He was wrong, without accounting for tactical voters UKIP polled 12.6%

May 9, 2015 at 2:19 PM | Registered Commenterstewgreen