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Discussion > Predictions for 2014

How did my predictions from last year fare:

1. With another flat year, the lack of warming will break through as a story in the MSM, with the BBC/Guardian axis going hell-for-leather to present apologist excuses for it as a pre-emptive strike.

Well, not too shabby. We did have a BBC main news item story about the lack of warming, I recall that fabulous screen capture of Fiona Bruce against a backdrop of "no warming since 1997". Almost as soon as they uttered it, they launched into the coverage from Copenhagen and then it was alarmist business as usual afterwards. The other notable BBC laugh this year was Andrew Neil showing up Ed Davey as the vacuous twit he is. So I'd say this one was kind of right.

2. At least one major player will jump sides to the skeptic position.

I did less well on this one. Many previously on-message commentators are starting to voice tremulous questions, but nobody has actually jumped ship as far as I can tell.

3. As the US economy recovers, the reason will become apparent that it is due to lower energy prices, and the case will be made more strongly here for fracking.

Both the US and UK economies are recovering, but nobody is putting it down to energy prices. Interestingly, though, energy prices have been the zeitgeist here for the latter part of the year. I'll take a quarter mark for the question being asked, anyway.

4. The numbers of Solar/wind proposals will drop to 50% of their current number by the year end.

I'll take this one. Maybe not 50% exactly but windfarm and solar projects have been cancelled left, right and centre all over the UK.

by the end of the year, climate models will be modelling a 20 years haitus in the temperature upward trend

A couple already are, and the majority of establishment climate science are still claiming that the hiatus is natural and within the limits of the system. Their excuses are becoming stupider the longer it goes on. Model falsification is fast becoming the bête noire of the climate community, and their continual denial is making them a laughing stock. I'll take a half mark for this one.

------

So, not too bad. So what about for 2014?

I predict

1. Mainstream politicians will take sceptical viewpoints in the run-up to the election and feel safe doing so.

2. Michael Mann will lose a court case.

3. Fracking will get the go-ahead in the UK on a limited number of sites.

4. A repeat, but I think a mainstream climate scientist will switch sides this year

5. Ed Davey loses his job (either via election or just sacked)

6. The bish will get some mainstream TV time.

That'll do for starters

Dec 27, 2013 at 1:08 PM | Unregistered CommenterTheBigYinJames

BYG I think you can award yourself on 3. the US is recovering far stronger than UK and significant sources have attributed low energy prices e.g World Energy Outlook Reveals Importance of U.S. Shale: Five Key Facts or PWC
- and it effects globally as the effective increase energy supply has put the brakes on oil price rises
(.. or perhaps it´s the abundance of new wind energy ..only joking)

type US recovery shale into Google

Dec 27, 2013 at 2:16 PM | Registered Commenterstewgreen

TBYJ
Missed your contributions in latter part of year

1 Possibly well into double figures
2. MM will possibly withdraw one, although not sure how this works in USA/Canada
3. Yes but there'll be lots of kicking and screaming from Ed Davey
4. Sooner or later
5. With lots of kicking and screaming from Ed Davey
6. Regular on R4 Any Questions

Dec 27, 2013 at 2:34 PM | Unregistered CommentersandyS

On looking at my own predictions for 2013, I see they were wider of the mark than TBYJ's:


1. A hot summer appreciably hotter than 1976, combined with extensive power cuts, will be trumpeted in the MSM, with the BBC/Guardian axis emphasising it as a foretaste of climate change to come.

2. The Daily Mail will take leadership position in calling for action on climate change, with weekly editorials by King Charles III.

3. As the US, followed by the UK, initiates a major new programme of "Quantitive Easing", the first signs of impending hyperinflation appear and the price of gold reaches $4500/oz. Popular armed uprising in Dallas suppressed with helicopter gunships, napalm and execution of its leadership using drone weapons.

4. Solar/wind subsidies tripled to counter any falling off of renewables investment.

5. Professor Sir Phil Jones appointed President of the Royal Society, following Sir Paul Nurse's conviction and execution for closet Climate Change Denial.

Dec 27, 2013 at 7:54 PM | Registered CommenterMartin A

Well Martin, it's difficult to separate "predictions" and "hopes", sometimes.

For the last three or four years, there doesn't seem to be much movement from day to day, but when looked at across months, we have come a long way.

We were never going to "win" over establishment science (and didn't want to anyway), all we could do was hold the flame alight until a new crop of scientists could regain a footing within the scientific establishment, and wrest it away from the 60s and 70s bred activist-scientists who wished they were wearing flowers in their hair instead of writing dissertations, so take out their hippie-angst on the rest of us now. We're not there yet, by a long way, but I think we're getting there slowly.

I haven't had much reason to post recently, the climate debate has been quiet. This leads to a news vacuum, filled with endless "he said she said" stories, where 'media' types slag each other off, but no real science is being done. It also leads to self-publicising opportunists hoping to sweep in and claim the victory. I wish the bish wouldn't partake, it gives oxygen to the wrong names, but then this is his blog. When something sciency comes up, I'll comment again.

Dec 28, 2013 at 9:20 AM | Unregistered CommenterTheBigYinJames

TBYJ
Hopefully not too OT but your post reminded me of The Lantern Bearers from my childhood. Well worth the Carnegie Medal won by the author.

Dec 28, 2013 at 10:51 AM | Unregistered CommenterSandyS

You did pretty well TBYJ. I didn't make any predictions nor will I but I think there may be some spectacular ironies in store, perhaps along the lines of *Antarctic scientific expedition trapped in enveloping ice during summer*.

You could make it up !)

Dec 29, 2013 at 7:45 PM | Unregistered Commenterssat

's easy!

Woe, woe, and thrice woe!

Senna can thank me later.

Dec 30, 2013 at 12:26 AM | Unregistered CommenterCumbrian Lad

This is where the 'enemy' are going next year. It's worth a read.

http://www.thersa.org/__data/assets/pdf_file/0004/1536844/J1530_RSA_climate_change_report_16.12_V51.pdf

Dec 31, 2013 at 11:37 PM | Unregistered CommenterTinyCO2

File not found, TinyCo2. The 'Warmacht' are efficient, I'll give them that.

Jan 2, 2014 at 8:54 AM | Unregistered CommenterTheBigYinJames

TBYJ
The link works for me in Chrome, IE and Opera but firefox gives a blank screen. Firefox problem may be because the file is a pdf. will have to investegate that when I have time.

Jan 2, 2014 at 11:35 AM | Unregistered CommenterSandyS

Try it again TBYJ, it may have been down for maintenance. I'm on Firefox and do have problems downloading big pdfs. The report is annoying but shows how they're feeling their way towards proper understanding of the public's reaction to AGW. They're not prepared to admit yet that the case for catastrophe just hasn't been made.

Jan 2, 2014 at 11:48 AM | Unregistered CommenterTinyCO2

Predictions for 2014 -

1. Arctic ice will trace another major low in 2014. Most likely setting a record.
2. Water scarcity (clean water) will make major headlines in the U.S.
3. The U.S. and Russia will have increasingly confrontational words.
4. By the end of the year plant die off (flowers and shrubs) on your property will be a topic of some considerable discussion. Debunking efforts will escalate.
5. Fracking will show itself to be a bust.
6. There will be talk of enabling emergency powers for FEMA and like organizations in the U.S.

Mar 12, 2014 at 2:54 AM | Unregistered Commenterreplicant

Does the record March ice coverage of the Great Lakes come into the no one predicted this category? I guess the link will probably update but I don't think we can link to historical charts.

Mar 12, 2014 at 9:38 AM | Unregistered CommenterSandyS

Your predictions look pretty good, TBYJ. I think we are both observing how some of the higher profile figures are inching back from the full-on consensus position, whilst the rest of the crew gets ever more strident. There is a gathering sense of moderation from some of the younger members of the "consensus".

Mar 12, 2014 at 3:25 PM | Unregistered Commenterdiogenes

El Nino

All temperature records except HadCRUt4 show record global land/ocean temperature.

Mar 13, 2014 at 1:07 AM | Unregistered CommenterEntropic man

That is a very bold prediction, EM.

Mar 13, 2014 at 1:37 AM | Unregistered Commentermichael hart

TBYJ

4. A repeat, but I think a mainstream climate scientist will switch sides this year

For a fair test on this, you'll need to define the "sides" so we clearly know if someone has switched.

What is the "sceptic position"?

Mar 13, 2014 at 9:10 AM | Registered CommenterRichard Betts

michael hart

Perhaps a related prediction could be that GISS adjusts historical Northern American Jan-Mar temps down a bit and Entropic Man's prediction is proved to be correct.

Mar 13, 2014 at 11:36 AM | Unregistered CommenterSandyS

Richard Betts: I was about to say 'fair question' but got diverted by a comment of johanna on a much older thread and mounted what you might call a limited defence of your contributions, including that incident with the @BarackObama twitter feed last May which could perhaps be taken as someone changing sides, given a fair wind. I'm sure my cheque will be in the post. :)

Mar 13, 2014 at 12:39 PM | Registered CommenterRichard Drake

"For a fair test on this, you'll need to define the "sides" so we clearly know if someone has switched."

Or some other criterion.

Perhaps the hatred now expressed for Judith Curry is an indication?

Mar 13, 2014 at 2:12 PM | Registered CommenterMartin A

"michael hart

Perhaps a related prediction could be that GISS adjusts historical Northern American Jan-Mar temps down a bit and Entropic Man's prediction is proved to be correct.
Mar 13, 2014 at 11:36 AM | Unregistered CommenterSandyS"

Sandy, I think Entropic Man doesn't have a prayer of being correct. GISS can 'adjust' all they like, but unless they can also adjust the UAH and RSS satellite measurements (which I take to be part of "all temperature records"), then I see no hope for his prediction.

I'm more than half expecting him to redefine what he actually meant. His prediction appears to me to be either very bold (as I said), or extraordinarily foolish. I chose to go with former because the audacity of it took my breath away. My main point of serious interest is why he might think HadCRUt4 will NOT show a record global land/ocean temperature. I think it won't either, along with the others I have mentioned. But he doesn't get partial credit for part of his prediction contradicting the rest of his prediction.

Bold indeed.

Mar 13, 2014 at 3:57 PM | Unregistered Commentermichael hart

Michael hart

For El Nino I refer you to the forecasts.

http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/

This is the least reliable time of year for ENSO forecasts so I may be a bit ahead of the curve. Unpublished data is quoting current ENSO +ve conditions, so this site will be worth watching as the year goes on.

The large El Ninos in 1998 and and 2010 produced GISS record years, so it looks a reasonable bet that this one will do the same. Will it be large? After four years of mostly ENSO negative conditions there will be a lot of energy in the system. Time will tell.

I excluded HadCRUt4 because it is currently under reading global averages due to its poor coverage of the Arctic.I forgot the satellite records. I'll include RSS, but leave out UAH, which is now on Version 6 and Spencer seems to be going off the rails.

If you ant me to list the records; NCDC, BEST, GISS, RSS.

Mar 13, 2014 at 7:30 PM | Unregistered CommenterEntropic man

4. A repeat, but I think a mainstream climate scientist will switch sides this year


Specifically, Richard Lindzen will declare that he was wrong all along. Climate sensitivity has been grossly underestimated. Computer models can be relied on because they mirror the real world. Carbon dioxide is a pollutant. Coal trains are death trains.

Mar 13, 2014 at 7:31 PM | Registered CommenterMartin A

Ha, Martin. We should have a thread with the least likely events of 2014.

Mar 13, 2014 at 7:47 PM | Registered CommenterRichard Drake