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Discussion > Sense and sensitivity

As I see it the parameters used for climate sensitivity calculation are increase in global temperature and increase in atmospheric concentrations of CO2 in the atmosphere. The change in global temperute is caused by the TOTAL forcing of which CO2 only plays a part if at all. The Consensous argument goes that the current pause in warming is caused by natural cycles that have cancelled the CO2 effect. (I don't give any credance to the heat being held in the deep oceans; I believe it has been reflected out into space by clouds) However cycles by their nature have both positive and negative phases so the measured warming must have a large element of natural warming. (50% at least). To my way of thinking this leaves CO2 as having a very very small or negligible effect. As climate sensitivity as defined is complete rubish we (the skeptics) make a big mistake to lach on to it as an argument. It implies the we accept it's validity which, I think could be a big mistake.

Jul 29, 2013 at 11:43 AM | Unregistered CommenterRoss Lea

Climate sensitivity to CO2 is just a figure AFAIK. It tries to assign a multiplyer to the 1.2C for a doubling of CO2. More than 1 there is positive feedback. Less than 1 there is negative feedback and if the sensitivity was negative CO2 would be a cooling gas. I'm not wedded to a lab value of 1.2C but until someone comes up with significant proof against that figure it remains valid.

To prove CO2 has no effect at all is a lot of rewriting and not necessary to buy more time to observe reality. If climate is as complicated as it appears to be then it could take centuries to untangle climate (if ever) and in the mean time temperatures could go up as well as down, quite naturally. If you state catagorically that CO2 is now a spent force before you can accurately explain climate then you can't explain any future temperature changes any better than warmists can explain the 'pause'. What if the water vapour feedback is a variable? Sometimes it might be positive, sometimes it might be negative and those effects could be from solar activity.

A big part of climate science's failure is over confidence. They say they don't want to drive policy but have exagerrated the science to do exactly that. They instictively know that if they'd told the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth then society would not have started acting. The sceptic power is by pointing out the flaws and if we make guesses or grasp at suitable explanations we become no better than them. It's not for us to say society can't spend money on cutting CO2 if it wants to but we can and should try to stop them doing it for fabricated reasons.

We don't need to solve climate to effect a 'wait and see' policy.

Jul 29, 2013 at 12:52 PM | Unregistered CommenterTinyCO2

Climate sensitivity to CO2 is just a figure AFAIK. It tries to assign a multiplyer to the 1.2C for a doubling of CO2. More than 1 there is positive feedback. Less than 1 there is negative feedback and if the sensitivity was negative CO2 would be a cooling gas. I'm not wedded to a lab value of 1.2C but until someone comes up with significant proof against that figure it remains valid.

To prove CO2 has no effect at all is a lot of rewriting and not necessary to buy more time to observe reality. If climate is as complicated as it appears to be then it could take centuries to untangle climate (if ever) and in the mean time temperatures could go up as well as down, quite naturally. If you state catagorically that CO2 is now a spent force before you can accurately explain climate then you can't explain any future temperature changes any better than warmists can explain the 'pause'. What if the water vapour feedback is a variable? Sometimes it might be positive, sometimes it might be negative and those effects could be from solar activity.

A big part of climate science's failure is over confidence. They say they don't want to drive policy but have exagerrated the science to do exactly that. They instictively know that if they'd told the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth then society would not have started acting. The sceptic power is by pointing out the flaws and if we make guesses or grasp at suitable explanations we become no better than them. It's not for us to say society can't spend money on cutting CO2 if it wants to but we can and should try to stop them doing it for fabricated reasons.

We don't need to solve climate to effect a 'wait and see' policy.

Jul 29, 2013 at 12:53 PM | Unregistered CommenterTinyCO2

TinyCO2

I do not want to buy time and you are right that understanding the climate is going to take an awful long time. What I want is to stop this lunacy in its tracks and we already have the weapons to do it.
Remember Feynman?

It doesn't matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn't matter how smart you are. If it doesn't agree with experiment, it's wrong.
Richard P. Feynman

We have many experiments performed by the earth that disprove the current CO2 theory, I tried to highlight some of them.

Jul 29, 2013 at 1:18 PM | Registered CommenterDung

I swear Captcha hates me. First it starts posting impossible words (non English characters) now it rejects my first attempt then posts both tries a minute later. It's like that cartoon where one kid asks another-

"How did you do on your exams?"
"Yesterday was terrible, first it asked for Henry the VIII's third wife. Then it asked for the cases of WWI and finally it asked for an essay on the Romans"
"Maaan, that's one tough history exam."
"Nah, that was just the Captcha."

Jul 29, 2013 at 1:21 PM | Unregistered CommenterTinyCO2

Mr D, what is this 'empirical evidence' for a 200ppm limit? Is it more substantial than your anecdote about Alec and his furnaces? That sounds like the Internet equivalent of, "a bloke down the pub told me..."

Jul 29, 2013 at 1:48 PM | Unregistered CommenterMissy

Missy

I am referring to the ice core records, all the info is contained within the IPCC reports and so far I have not even mentioned that previous interglacials were warmer than this one even though CO2 was lower.
I said "around 200ppm" and I pointed out that warming (to the interglacial) ended fairly abruptly even though CO2 continued to rise for 800 to 1000 years. Why do you think the warming stopped?

Jul 29, 2013 at 3:04 PM | Registered CommenterDung

How should I know why it stopped? Your certainty on these issues is perplexing. You support or have "faith" in Salby and his ideas, presumably including that proxy CO2 measurements are inaccurate, yet you can without evident irony claim that CO2 levels were lower in previous inter-glacials. You use evidence derived from ice cores to support your views and yet you would probably barf at suggestions that we know anything definite about the last few thousand years. You claim empirical evidence for a limit on the effectiveness of CO2 of 200ppmv ("all the effects of CO2 cease at concentrations higher than 200ppm") according to Alec the plumber (or whatever) and yet cannot produce such evidence. And yet you seem to have no better scientific understanding the me. How can you sustain these apparently conflicting opinions all at the same time?

Jul 29, 2013 at 7:39 PM | Unregistered CommenterMissy

Missy

Diplomacy is not your forte and neither apparently is reading around this subject. If even the IPCC includes a graph in AR4 showing quite clearly that this is the coolest of the 4 most recent interglacials then I suggest I am on firm ground and you are talking bollocks as usual. AR4 also states what the CO2 levels were (to our best knowledge) in all the interglacials.

How should I know why it stopped?
Well Missy since it demonstrates that CO2 did not cause further warming for about 1000 years and that the warming stopped at "around 200 ppm" I would have thought you might be interested ^.^

Jul 29, 2013 at 8:30 PM | Registered CommenterDung

Mr D, there you go again, defending the IPCC's CO2 records against suggestions by Salby (in whom you say you have faith) that the proxy record of CO2 is wrong. Your faith in the IPCC and the accuracy of ice core data is quite surprising.

Jul 29, 2013 at 10:19 PM | Unregistered CommenterMissy

Goodbye Missy ^.^

Jul 29, 2013 at 11:44 PM | Registered CommenterDung

Let me be thick for a minute (some will recognise this as inescapable). CS quantifies how the climate responds to an increase in CO2, right? So if there is no change, the CS = 0, If it's 3, it's 3?

So, why does ECS not exist? If the sensitivity of the climate (at a certain level of CO2) is 0. Why does it not exist?

Jul 30, 2013 at 12:27 PM | Unregistered CommenterGixxerboy

Gixxerboy

I am not sure I understand your question but I think Rhoda asks 2 questions:

Is it possible to calculate CS at all?

Is the figure of any use even if calculated.

When we do not understand all the factors involved in warming the planet, how can it be possible to know how much CO2 is contributing?

My own view is that the effect of CO2 is saturated at somewhere around 200 ppm and that therefore atm our climate does not respond to CO2.

Jul 30, 2013 at 2:43 PM | Registered CommenterDung

Rhoda

I do believe your logic is gathering BH fans ^.^

Aug 14, 2013 at 11:17 PM | Registered CommenterDung

CS sensitivity is shorthand for saying "we're modelling this as if it's a simple linear system" - it's no surprise the concept came out of the modelling community.

Aug 15, 2013 at 8:10 AM | Unregistered CommenterTheBigYinJames