Bishop Hill Met Office still brazen
Jul 7, 2015 Climate: MetOffice Climate: Models Readers may recall the paper I wrote for GWPF on the problems with the UKCP09 climate projections. These were demonstrably unreliable: the predictions were formulated as a weighted average of possible future climates, but it was discovered that only unrealistic future climates were taken into account. Readers may also recall that this has all been acknowledged by the Met Office, but that they are refusing to acknowledge that it is a problem.
Astonishing then to see that the Met Office is still pushing UKCP09, with a new paper in Nature Climate Change, dutifully (and inevitably) picked up by the BBC:
Scorching summers such as the one in 2003 look set to become more common in England and Wales, a study suggests...
The work draws on a major analysis, known as UKCP09, released back in 2009 which offered projections of the future British climate divided into 30-year periods.
Can anyone think of a way in which this could be seen as:
- reputable behaviour by the scientists concerned
- reputable behaviour by the journal involved
- reputable behaviour by the BBC?
Reader Comments (76)
dennisa, so they are all 'born again' climate scientists, with a missionary zeal to prove faith, in the one true Holy Hockey Stick, created in Mann's own preferred perfect likeness. Just send a cheque for unlimited tax payer funds, and award yourself a Nobel Prize of your own choosing.
Makes you wonder what an FOI request would reveal about Met Office expenditure, and purchasing 'credibility and influence' from external sources.
Just how much time, money and effort went into telling us how HOT HOT HOT it was at Wimbledon last week?
Who would join the Met Office to write political propaganda weather forecasts? Especially if they took less than a few lumps of sugar in their tea.
The Met Office has less/fewer intelligent scientists. (Delete as appropriate.)
David Jones
The Met Office has intelligent scientists?
lapogus
My brother in Dunning got so fed up with the cool/cold spring early summer that he and his wife booked a last minute trip to Spain at the end of June. This was there first sunshine break ever we took it that it was as cold as they said.
GC
"how HOT HOT HOT it was at Wimbledon"
The BBC even reported the temperature (43 deg.C) in the sun! This is a notoriously unreliable method of comparing temperatures, which is why it is never done by respectable meteorologists, but then how would the Beeb know that..?
Can anyone think of a way in which this could be seen as:
• repeated behaviour by the scientists concerned
• repeated behaviour by the journal involved
• repeated behaviour by the BBC?
Yawn!
The law of diminishing returns applies to the Met Office. Cut the global warming rubbish and all who write it, and carry on getting better at weather forecasting.
The savings to the tax payer will be vast.
Surely Jeremy Grantham has enough money to take on the over inflated salaries and egos of another dozen useless idiots, to keep his existing ones company, as they stare out of the window at a piece of dangling seaweed guessing whether it will get hotter/colder wetter/drier in 100 years time?
jamesp, I expect the BBC took their instructions from the highly overvalued Met Office public relations officers, some of whom had to buy new sunhats and outfits (on expenses) to go to Wimbledon (on expenses) in a taxi (on expenses) to test the strawberries and cream (on expenses).
For some of them, this would have been their first experience of weather, as it happens, in the real world that actually exists outside their airconditioned model microclimates. Given the tales of definitive woe they normally churn out, it is a miracle they all survived without fatal consequences, other than the terminal decline in taxpayer funding.
Actually I would submit that the answers can be yes, yes, and yes. If you're a typical totalitarian leftist all in favour of Agenda 21, or a climate 'scientist' whose grants depend on the CAGW scam money, or someone like Lord Deben who is rather fond of all those green subsidies, or anyone in similar categories, they require and support and entirely approve of such behaviour. That doesn't, of course, make it right, but for such people there are no absolutes, it's all relative. That which supports the international socialist agenda is correct, regardless of truth. We have always been at war with Oceania.
It's remarkably similar to the Islamic principle of taqiyya: if deceiving a non-believer will advance the cause of Islam, but telling the truth to them would not, then lying becomes not only desirable but a religious obligation. It's not at all surprising to me that the left is so fond of Islam. (I now await the cries of Islamophobia ;) )
@Alan the Brit.
This might help even though it is not the particular graph you want.
https://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2015/07/07/hadukp-precipitation-nothing-to-see-here/
janets, having some personal experience of taqiyya, it is a term that should be in common usage in the English language, to define lying for the greater good, or climate science as we know it.
After WWII, nations and national academies of science were united into a giant, worldwide "Orwellian Ministry of Consensus Scientific (UN)Truths" on 24 Oct 1945 to prohibit public knowledge of NEUTRON REPULSION -
the source of energy in cores of galaxies, ordinary stars, some planets and all atoms heavier than ~150 amu (atomic mass units), including the atoms of uranium and plutonium that destroyed Hiroshima and Nagasaki and . . .
crippled leaders of nations and national academies of sciences with fear-based INSANITY (loss of contact with reality).
https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/10640850/Introduction.pdf
janets
Islamaphobia Central reporting in ^.^
taqiyya explains a number of things to me so thanks for bringing it up. Some time in the noughties the England cricket team was having serious problems with certain Pakistani swing bowlers ( i.e. they they were making mincemeat out of our batting lineup hehe). Chief among the offenders was Wasim Akram who was getting the ball to move in mysterious ways. I was watching one over he was bowling and he was holding the ball in his left hand down by his side while using his right hand to direct fielders to the positions he needed. My eyes were drawn to his right hand which was waving about a lot but for some reason I watched his left hand; he was digging his thumbnail into the ball on or next to the seam.Akram was ball tampering which the English team had been complaining about without knowing how it was done.
I emailed Sky and Charles Colville replied: Bang to rights but dont quote me and of course nothing was done.
janets,
" having some personal experience of taqiyya, it is a term that should be in common usage in the English language, to define lying for the greater good, or climate science as we know it".
In Ireland one of our Catholic Bishops explained that lying to the police about Paedophile priests was OK so long as one practised a technique he called " Mental Reservation". This technique is apparently a way of telling a lie so as to preserve the greater good ( of the Church of course), Apparently this was OK. Also sounds like a technique practised by the BEEB, the Greenblob, the IPCC , the RS and the UAE.
Re Jul 7, 2015 at 11:12 AM | Unregistered Commenter bill
Bill
Try
http://www.coyoteblog.com/coyote_blog/2015/06/iron-law-of-bureaucracy.html?doing_wp_cron=1436300184.9539170265197753906250
And
http://www.coyoteblog.com/coyote_blog/2015/06/congress-almost-always-rewards-failed-government-agencies-here-is-why.html?doing_wp_cron=1436300316.3179059028625488281250
Regarding long range forecasting, the Muppet Office can't do it (5-8 days is their tops).
However, my wife and I had a week in Venice at the end of June. It so happened that in March Piers Corbyn (weatheraction) had sent me a summary of the weather for Europe (not UK). I thought I'd check and see what weather was predicted for Venice. It predicted a warm/hot week of sunshine except for the Tuesday when there would be severe thunder storms. I had all but forgotten this when we arrived, but the little hotel had thoughtfully printed out the week's weather forecast - and lo and behold the Tuesday was slated for thunder storms. Exactly on cue the next day, the heavens opened for twelve hours of thunderstorms and torrential rain. Wednesday on the sun shone.
Muppet office - beat that!
Janets, it seems that the Green Blob don't call it Islamophobia, but 'being an evil denier, in the pay of Big Oil'
Spectator 9:04. With accusations of Islamaphobia, I would recommend not upsetting the United Arab Emirates.
However, when it comes to playing fast and loose with science, facts, honesty and openness, the University of East Anglia are such a shining example that Professor Michael Mann himself, even cited their official whitewashes in his legal submissions. What higher endorsement can be conferred in climate science?
" The Met Office has intelligent scientists?
Jul 7, 2015 at 4:23 PM | Dung"
My ex Reading colleagues who many of now work for the Met Office are most definitely intelligent. Therefore it follows that they know a large amount if their output is complete crap.
CIMP5 climate models by any chance? The latest IPCC report says that 111 of 114 runs of those models failed to predict the absence of warming from 1998 to 2012 (i.e. the 15 years prior to the report being drafted).
Philip Foster the difference is if the MET get it wrong they get more money to help them get it right in the future if Corbyn gets it wrong his losses money , that creates a different mind set.
John McLean
The underlying model is HadCM3
New converts to claptrap ideas nearly always go to extremes.
This paper by Lenny Smith is a brilliant critique of UKCP09
Frigg, Roman and Smith, Leonard A. and Stainforth, David A. (2015) An assessment of the foundational assumptions in high-resolution climate projections: the case of UKCP09 Synthese, online. 1-30. ISSN 1573-0964
http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/61635/
Don't say this is goodbye, Richard.
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If you laid all the Met Office's climate scientists end to end, they would all point in the same direction.
Jul 7, 2015 at 2:53 PM | Unregistered Commentergolf Charlie
Not quite. Betts would be spinning like a top !