Julia Slingo on the storms

The Met Office and the Centre for Ecology and Hydrology (CEH) - a government research centre - have issued a joint report into the storms in south-west England. To mark the occasion Julia Slingo has taken to the airwaves, trying desperately to insinuate that there is a link to climate change:

Dame Julia said while none of the individual storms had been exceptional, the "clustering and persistence" were extremely unusual.

"We have seen exceptional weather," she said.

"We cannot say it's unprecedented, but it is certainly exceptional.

"Is it consistent with what we might expect from climate change?

"Of course.

"As yet there can be no definitive answer on the particular events that we have seen this winter, but if we look at the broader base of evidence then we see things that support the premise that climate change has been making a contribution."

Of course, the storms are also consistent with business as usual, but such nuance is prominent by its absence from Dame Julia's public utterances. For a more balanced summary of the report, take a look at the blog post by CEH's Barnaby Smith. It's really necessary to read the whole thing, but here are some excerpts that Dame Julia felt it necessary to brush over entirely:

A preliminary analysis suggest that outflows aggregated over six weeks were the greatest since the 1947 floods – the most extensive in England & Wales during the 20th century.

In December and January, a few rivers (including the Mole, Wey and Medway, which, on the basis of preliminary data, recorded their highest flows since the extreme floods of September 1968) registered outstanding maximum flows. 

Generally, however, the peak flows registered during the recent flooding were not extreme. On the Thames the highest flow in 2014 has been exceeded during 14 earlier floods (most prior to 1950).

The impression you get is that the rainfall is high, but not unprecedented. A similarly nuanced view of the link to climate change is given. But all we get from the Met Office are weasel words like "consistent with" - the scientist's counterpart of the environmentalist's "linked to". Coming so soon after Dame Julia's self-serving briefing for central government it does look as if the Met Office is reverting to type.

Comments

[HaroldW]

Les Johnson -
"You might very well think that [the winter will be drier], but the Met Office couldn't possibly comment."

[james griffin]

I despair that there is any mention of AGW...when? It is well known that we are not particularly warm when compared with the Climatic Optimum of 10,000 years ago and whatsmore the gentle warming of the last century ended 17 years ago. With there being no trace of a warming of the Tropical Troposphere then quite clearly CO2 is not any kind of culprit.
However there is Climate Change.....it is getting more and more wild with some very cold weather and that is down to strange solar activity that NASA took the trouble to explain last November via The Wall Street Journal.
With sunspots in decline we are going to suffer severe climate change.....but not exactly as the warmers envisaged..

[russell]

"I think an exorcist for the Met Office would be a wonderful idea. You might be surprised what he'd find. Or maybe you wouldn't."

Would you consider taking Governor Jindal of Louisiana on permamnent loan, or the Kenyan chap who de-demonized Gov. Palin of Alaska?

They have hands on experience in these matters , and have already recieved their complimentary copies of The Satanic Gasses from the Heartland Institute.