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« St Andrews Green Week | Main | Book Review: ‘Climate Change: Natural or Manmade?’ »
Wednesday
Mar132013

Climategate 3.0

This message from FOIA was forwarded to me.

It's time to tie up loose ends and dispel some of the speculation surrounding the Climategate affair.

Indeed, it's singular "I" this time.  After certain career developments I can no longer use the papal plural ;-)

If this email seems slightly disjointed it's probably my linguistic background and the problem of trying to address both the wider audience (I expect this will be partially reproduced sooner or later) and the email recipients (whom I haven't decided yet on).

The "all.7z" password is [redacted]

DO NOT PUBLISH THE PASSWORD.  Quote other parts if you like.

Releasing the encrypted archive was a mere practicality.  I didn't want to keep the emails lying around.

I prepared CG1 & 2 alone.  Even skimming through all 220.000 emails would have taken several more months of work in an increasingly unfavorable environment.

Dumping them all into the public domain would be the last resort.  Majority of the emails are irrelevant, some of them probably sensitive and socially damaging.

To get the remaining scientifically (or otherwise) relevant emails out,  I ask you to pass this on to any motivated and responsible individuals who could volunteer some time to sift through the material for eventual release.

Filtering\redacting personally sensitive emails doesn't require special expertise.

I'm not entirely comfortable sending the password around unsolicited, but haven't got better ideas at the moment.  If you feel this makes you seemingly "complicit" in a way you don't like, don't take action.

I don't expect these remaining emails to hold big surprises.  Yet it's possible that the most important pieces are among them.  Nobody on the planet has held the archive in plaintext since CG2.

That's right; no conspiracy, no paid hackers, no Big Oil.  The Republicans didn't plot this.  USA politics is alien to me, neither am I from the UK.  There is life outside the Anglo-American sphere.

If someone is still wondering why anyone would take these risks, or sees only a breach of privacy here, a few words...

The first glimpses I got behind the scenes did little to  garner my trust in the state of climate science -- on the contrary.  I found myself in front of a choice that just might have a global impact.

Briefly put, when I had to balance the interests of my own safety, privacy\career of a few scientists, and the well-being of billions of people living in the coming several decades, the first two weren't the decisive concern.

It was me or nobody, now or never.  Combination of several rather improbable prerequisites just wouldn't occur again for anyone else in the foreseeable future.  The circus was about to arrive in Copenhagen.  Later on it could be too late.

Most would agree that climate science has already directed where humanity puts its capability, innovation, mental and material "might".  The scale will grow ever grander in the coming decades if things go according to script.  We're dealing with $trillions and potentially drastic influence on practically everyone.

Wealth of the surrounding society tends to draw the major brushstrokes of a newborn's future life.  It makes a huge difference whether humanity uses its assets to achieve progress, or whether it strives to stop and reverse it, essentially sacrificing the less fortunate to the climate gods.

We can't pour trillions in this massive hole-digging-and-filling-up endeavor and pretend it's not away from something and someone else.

If the economy of a region, a country, a city, etc.  deteriorates, what happens among the poorest? Does that usually improve their prospects? No, they will take the hardest hit.  No amount of magical climate thinking can turn this one upside-down.

It's easy for many of us in the western world to accept a tiny green inconvenience and then wallow in that righteous feeling, surrounded by our "clean" technology and energy that is only slightly more expensive if adequately subsidized.

Those millions and billions already struggling with malnutrition, sickness, violence, illiteracy, etc.  don't have that luxury.  The price of "climate protection" with its cumulative and collateral effects is bound to destroy and debilitate in great numbers, for decades and generations.

Conversely, a "game-changer" could have a beneficial effect encompassing a similar scope.

If I had a chance to accomplish even a fraction of that, I'd have to try.  I couldn't morally afford inaction.  Even if I risked everything, would never get personal compensation, and could probably never talk about it with anyone.

I took what I deemed the most defensible course of action, and would do it again (although with slight alterations -- trying to publish something truthful on RealClimate was clearly too grandiose of a plan ;-).

Even if I have it all wrong and these scientists had some good reason to mislead us (instead of making a strong case with real data) I think disseminating the truth is still the safest bet by far.

Big thanks to Steve and Anthony and many others.  My contribution would never have happened without your work (whether or not you agree with the views stated).

Oh, one more thing.  I was surprised to learn from a "progressive" blog, corroborated by a renowned "scientist", that the releases were part of a coordinated campaign receiving vast amounts of secret funding from shady energy industry groups.

I wasn't aware of the arrangement but warmly welcome their decision to support my project.  For that end I opened a bitcoin address: 1HHQ36qbsgGZWLPmiUjYHxQUPJ6EQXVJFS.

More seriously speaking, I accept, with gratitude, modest donations to support The (other) Cause.  The address can also serve as a digital signature to ward off those identity thefts which are part of climate scientists' repertoire of tricks these days.

Keep on the good work.  I won't be able to use this email address for long so if you reply, I can't guarantee reading or answering.  I will several batches, to anyone I can think of.

Over and out.


Mr. FOIA

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Reader Comments (216)

"So we have a native Chinese who's spent his career speaking English but writing in some undetermined eastern European language without definite articles.

Narrows it down a lot, I'd say."
--------------------------------------

Did you ever see Michael Palin's "Ripping Yarns: Murder at Moorstones Manor", where pretty much all the characters claim to be the murderer, before shooting each other?


For what it's worth (approx zero), my guess is that it is someone from Southern (Catholic) Germany near the site of an American military base or their personnel when they were posted in West Germany.
:)

Mar 13, 2013 at 5:40 PM | Unregistered Commentermichael hart

Sounds like the files unlocked by the password are from UEA CRU. I await more independent confirmation to consider it fact.


The most interesting question to me is whether the author of the password revealing email is the same person who released GC1 & CG2 or is the author someone who cracked the password?


I do not see hard evidence either way on authorship.


John

Mar 13, 2013 at 5:43 PM | Unregistered CommenterJohn Whitman

Re: nTropywins

Tom Nelson is repeating somebody else's claim, he isn't making it himself.

I think it is either a mistake or an effort to discredit FOIA

Mar 13, 2013 at 5:48 PM | Unregistered CommenterTerryS

I was looking for hard evidence that I am not Mr FOIA (in case the police turns up at my door) and the best so far is that I have never ever used the word "garner" in 19 years of writing on the 'net.

Well...until I wrote this comment that is ;)

Mar 13, 2013 at 5:50 PM | Registered Commenteromnologos

Careful, Maurizio - at this very moment, our highly trained police force may be ... garnering information about you :-)

Mar 13, 2013 at 5:53 PM | Unregistered CommenterJeremy Poynton

Peter Crawford, he does not say that he was born in the Western world. Could be an African living in London for example. Why is he so concerned about his safety?

Mar 13, 2013 at 6:00 PM | Unregistered CommenterMindert Eiting

was looking for hard evidence that I am not Mr FOIA (in case the police turns up at my door) and the best so far is that I have never ever used the word "garner" in 19 years of writing on the 'net.

Well...until I wrote this comment that is ;)
Mar 13, 2013 at 5:50 PM omnologos

Aah - I'm disappointed Maurizio, I was looking forward to worshiping at your feet ;-)

Mar 13, 2013 at 6:04 PM | Registered CommenterFoxgoose

As a litigation support specialist with over 2 decades of experience, I'd like to point out that 220,000 emails is not - in any way, shape, or form - "massive". While it may sound like a lot, this would count as a small fraction of a total document collection for most major litigation. Reviewing this would be neither difficult or exorbitantly time consuming - given the right tools.

Mar 13, 2013 at 6:08 PM | Unregistered CommenterTomB

Isn't there a statutory one month latency period between a FOIA release, rude letter generation by the DOJ, and dutiful door knocking and warranted computer confiscation by the intelligence divisions of the East Anglian and Metropolitan police forces? (I suppose the clock on this just started).

Mar 13, 2013 at 6:09 PM | Unregistered CommenterZT

Her English is too good, he said,
Which clearly indicates that she is foreign.
Whereas others are instructed in their native language
English people aren't.
And although she may have studied with an expert
Di'lectician and grammarian, I can tell that she was born
Hungarian!

I will be toasting FOIA 200.00 times with Tokay (or should I say Tokaj\Tokaji?)

Mar 13, 2013 at 6:12 PM | Unregistered Commenternvw

Googled “Mr FOIA” - 637 hits, up from 634 two hours ago
Googled “Climategate 3.0” - 622 hits down from 625 two hours ago
Nothing in the mainstream media, (though Delingpole has it, bless him).
So now we know how many of us there are.

Mar 13, 2013 at 6:22 PM | Registered Commentergeoffchambers

geoff - don't worry, once the dissemblers at the Graun and elsewhere get going, you can bet those numbers will go up...

Mar 13, 2013 at 6:37 PM | Unregistered CommenterJEM

Skiphil
Does this mean that Mr. FOIA wasn't Briffa??

I guess it really wasn't Briffa......

I have never seen a 'Briffa as the Mole' comment followed up by any logical reasoning.

I have my own theory of 'Climategate' and it works along the lines of ... "Occam's razor". That is to suggest that while A Grade BS might sell 'chip wrappers', the truth could be much simpler.

Briffa, in my theory, doesn't even rate a 'perhaps'.

Mar 13, 2013 at 6:49 PM | Unregistered Commenter3x2

ntropywins: " according to Tom Nelson the zip got a lot of viruses"

That's consistent with a hoax. Has anyone confirmed there are emails included that have not been previously released?

I'm sure the powers that be are working on that now.

Mar 13, 2013 at 6:56 PM | Unregistered Commentertheduke

My vote goes for the position that FOIA was using misdirection in his email.

He has almost certainly read how Mosher deduced Peter Gleick to be the forger\impersonator [note the backslash!], and has composed his message to hinder identification.

What you think?

Mar 13, 2013 at 6:57 PM | Unregistered CommenterDon B

I think it would be interesting and possibly enlightening if his grace could try to ascertain who the recipients of the original emails from Mr FOIA were.

I know of Tom Nelson, Lubos Motl, Steve Mc and Anthony Watts. Any UK based blogs?

Doesn't look like Jo Nova was on the list but she has picked up the story in Oz

Mar 13, 2013 at 7:13 PM | Unregistered CommenternTropywins

Mar 13, 2013 at 5:50 PM | omnologos

Hi Maurizio, I do remember you previously revealing "I'm RC"....

see your comment at Sep 12, 2011 at 10:40 PM here.

:-)

Mar 13, 2013 at 7:14 PM | Registered CommenterRichard Betts

Got this from WUWT:

The climategate zip archive when uncompressed contains 21 worms and viruses. Please be careful if you open it. Here is a screenshot of ClamXav: http://img545.imageshack.us/img545/2184/clamxavscreenshot.jpg

REPLY: This was scanned checked by many people, no such virii has been seen. Must be an issue local to you – Anthony

That's a relief. Although Anthony doesn't say so explicitly, he seems to believe the newly released material-- minus one that was from an earlier release-- has not been released previously.

Still could be a hoax, but if it is, it would almost certainly have to be someone with access to all the emails. Someone at UEA?

Enough speculating. I have things to do.

Mar 13, 2013 at 7:15 PM | Unregistered Commentertheduke

theduke....

Not sure how this can be a hoax as the file opened by the password is presumably the same locked file that was distributed by FOIA at the time of CG2.
And that thing about worms and viruses was just misdirection by some warmy.

Mar 13, 2013 at 7:19 PM | Unregistered CommenterBuffy Minton

Richard Betts:

Hi Maurizio, I do remember you previously revealing "I'm RC"....

Very clever. And that could also explain the 'papal plural'.

Mar 13, 2013 at 7:24 PM | Registered CommenterRichard Drake

@theduke
Well don't read the content - ya could just contract 'worms and viruses'! JHFC, that is the most desperate shite I have ever seen come from the gorebot stable. Read this truth and you will be infected - Aiii.

What's next? "Every time a 'real climate scientist' calls Mann's Hockey Stick a pile of sh*te a puppy dies needlessly?

Mar 13, 2013 at 7:35 PM | Unregistered Commenter3x2

To me it's much more likely to have been leak than hack since the whistleblower would have needed to be aware of the scandal at first hand. So he's a foreigner who used to work at UEA. Why not ask our sceptic sympathiser at UEA if he knows who FOIA is? He's got all the clues. He must know. (Doesn't have to identify him, of course).

Mar 13, 2013 at 7:38 PM | Unregistered Commentersimon abingdon

J4R...Mar 13, 2013 at 4:19 PM ...Could be South African, Irish, Australasian.

Well, it ain't I !!!

PW Dublin

Mar 13, 2013 at 7:42 PM | Registered Commenterpeterwalsh

the password is not a "guessable" construction; that is, if you used a dictionary attack, it would fail. It's pretty much a random string of alpha characters with one digit and all lower case with one letter in caps.

shitload of mails.

as for his letter. It was first read to me last night ( nobody wanted to forward things ) and I was struck by its eloquence and sincerity. hmm. Draw no inference from that.

now I have to sweep for critters on my box.

The task that lies ahead will be to sort wheat from chaff and to redact any personal info.

Mar 13, 2013 at 7:43 PM | Unregistered Commentersteven mosher

I know of Tom Nelson, Lubos Motl, Steve Mc and Anthony Watts. Any UK based blogs?

Jeff Condon at The Air Vent also got the message

Mar 13, 2013 at 7:46 PM | Unregistered CommenterArthur Dent

Googled “Mr FOIA” - 644 hits, up from 634 four hours ago
Googled “Climategate 3.0” - 547 hits down from 625 four hours ago
Googled “Pope Francis” - 26,300 hits up from 500 a few minutes ago
I’m really sorry it’s not Maurizio. (Mr FOIA, I mean)

Mar 13, 2013 at 7:49 PM | Registered Commentergeoffchambers

@mosher - what does shitload mean, a load of crap? Any chance you mean shedload, a load of goodies?

Mar 13, 2013 at 8:01 PM | Unregistered Commentersimon abingdon

@ Commenter3x2 @ 7:35:

Easy, cowboy, easy now.

Mar 13, 2013 at 8:10 PM | Unregistered Commentertheduke

Mar 13, 2013 at 6:49 PM | 3x2


3x2, pleeaaassee .... "JK" in web parlance means "just kidding" as in I am just kidding.... I was making a lame reference to the fuss about Briffa and Tim Ball's post over on WUWT recently.....

Mar 13, 2013 at 8:16 PM | Registered CommenterSkiphil

@peter walsh

Your conclusion does not follow from the premisses.

Mar 13, 2013 at 8:21 PM | Unregistered Commentersimon abingdon

I'm not entirely comfortable sending the password around unsolicited, but haven't got better ideas at the moment. If you feel this makes you seemingly "complicit" in a way you don't like, don't take action.

Intelligent, excellent English, but not as a first language. In his first language he would be very eloquent.

And not I do not believe this has been written to mask. FOIA has class.

Mar 13, 2013 at 8:27 PM | Unregistered CommenterJiminy Cricket

And now at least one or two people have sent bitcoins since I last looked...

http://blockchain.info/address/1HHQ36qbsgGZWLPmiUjYHxQUPJ6EQXVJFS

Mar 13, 2013 at 8:36 PM | Unregistered CommenterKevin Cave

Mr FOIA and a new Pope in the same evening! I need a beer.

Mar 13, 2013 at 8:37 PM | Unregistered CommenterCumbrian Lad

Does anyone think it is coincidence that the Climategate III password is released on the same day that a new Pope is announced?? Really??

I have it on inside authority that novelist Dan Brown ("The DaVinci Code") is behind it all, and has long been working with pseudo-psychologist Stephan Lewandowsky and failed cartoonist John Cook to produce a new "unprecedented" blockbuster historical saga on the world warming towards hell, conspiracy ideation, and skepticism about climate science.

This masterpiece, to be publicized soon alongside the CG3 release, is called

"The Lew-gate Code: Scientists in Search of Angels and Demons"

Mar 13, 2013 at 9:00 PM | Registered CommenterSkiphil

Having taken time to read FOIA's missive in more detail I think there are some considered sentiments in there that sound genuine.

I sense that he really is just one guy and that he is now signing off from all the speculation and hoo ha that he must have felt going on around him. I bet he will have a massive feeling of relief now. What he says sound reasonable i.e. he has nearly a GB of stuff he can never get through, and hasn't the time, and just wants shot of it.

Personally I would expect that FOIA knows there could be blowback from his activities and he will want to remain incognito for many years. I think he will have tried to have put us off the scent will all the "clues" in the rest of his post ;)

As for motives I think there is genuine stuff there, if not, then this still strikes me as very profound:

Most would agree that climate science has already directed where humanity puts its capability, innovation, mental and material "might". The scale will grow ever grander in the coming decades if things go according to script. We're dealing with $trillions and potentially drastic influence on practically everyone.


Resonates with me. The strange "directing" effect of climate is an acute observation. I think this is true and not because climate is such a big cause but because the west has nothing better to do and is too comfortable in redundant posturing.

Mar 13, 2013 at 9:01 PM | Registered CommenterThe Leopard In The Basement

Somewhat O/T but check out the hilarious photo of Phil Jones's office currently showing on Tom Nelson's blog (scroll down).

Mar 13, 2013 at 9:14 PM | Unregistered CommenterSJF

Googled “Mr FOIA” - 644 hits, up from 634 four hours ago
Googled “Climategate 3.0” - 547 hits down from 625 four hours ago
Googled “Pope Francis” - 26,300 hits up from 500 a few minutes ago
I’m really sorry it’s not Maurizio. (Mr FOIA, I mean)
=======================================================

Well, Pope Maurizio the First sounds good to me!

Mar 13, 2013 at 9:21 PM | Unregistered CommenterJeremy Poynton

Wise words, as always, from leopard in the basement:

The strange "directing" effect of climate is an acute observation. I think this is true and not because climate is such a big cause but because the west has nothing better to do and is too comfortable in redundant posturing.

Tends to confirm speculation (note lack of article) above that author is Chinese. They’re happy to buy up an Occident in gentle decline, but not one which is in its death agonies. Time to call a halt to this silliness. Problem is, no-one is listening except us sceptics...

Mar 13, 2013 at 9:32 PM | Registered Commentergeoffchambers

Shame....I was rather hoping he'd be British .... to make up for us Brits having spawned the CRU and Met.Office (sigh...) - we need to do something to try and recover our badly tarnished reputation!!!

Mar 13, 2013 at 9:36 PM | Unregistered CommenterMarion

I have kept a copy of the zip file on my computer , waiting for this day.

How do I get the password ?

Who will be selected to weed out the personal irrelevant stuff that does need to be published ?

I would love to work on this project.

Mar 13, 2013 at 9:37 PM | Unregistered CommenterNicL (not the clever one)

+1 tlitb
********

"Dumping them all into the public domain would be the last resort. Majority of the emails are irrelevant, some of them probably sensitive and socially damaging."

+1 Mr FOIA

Mar 13, 2013 at 9:40 PM | Unregistered Commenternot banned yet

Mosh:

It was first read to me last night ( nobody wanted to forward things ) and I was struck by its eloquence and sincerity.

My thoughts exactly. A privilege to know this person, as much as they have allowed us.

Mar 13, 2013 at 9:44 PM | Registered CommenterRichard Drake

Intrigue and mystery.

Using a decimal point as 1000s separator (200.000) is almost universal in Europe except UK and Ireland.

On the other hand, most European cultures place the currency symbol AFTER the number, so "$trillions" would be unusual outside UK and Ireland.

Another example of strange grammar is "whom I haven't decided yet on". "Whom" seems relatively pedantic, while the rest of the sentence is clearly non-native.

There is regular, confident and accurate use of the apostrophe, suggesting a confident English speaker/writer. We also see "unfavorable" in place of "unfavourable". Just US spell check?

Surely a good linguist could narrow it down.

Mar 13, 2013 at 9:51 PM | Unregistered CommenterOakwood

Shame....I was rather hoping he'd be British .... to make up for us Brits having spawned the CRU and Met.Office (sigh...) - we need to do something to try and recover our badly tarnished reputation!!!
Mar 13, 2013 at 9:36 PM Marion

Well in a twisted way Brits have done their bit. Bad behaviour, wagging e-mail tongues and bad IT security. You've got to give credit when the enemy shoots themself in the foot.

Mar 13, 2013 at 9:54 PM | Unregistered CommenterTinyCO2

Could it be Wen Jiabao’s parting gift before retiring to his villa in North Korea.

Mar 13, 2013 at 9:57 PM | Unregistered CommenterMartyn

RD - "A privilege to know this person, as much as they have allowed us."

Who'da thunk it? A fan of a pseudonym?! ;-)

Mar 13, 2013 at 10:00 PM | Unregistered Commenternot banned yet

I wouldn't rule out Professor Plum.

Whether he did it with the pipe, the candlestick, or the dagger, that's still up in the air.

Mar 13, 2013 at 10:05 PM | Unregistered Commenterpapertiger

I am Spartacus!

Mar 13, 2013 at 10:15 PM | Unregistered Commentercosmic

There is some automated analysis of earlier ClimateGate emails at:
http://www.tome22.info/TypeViews/Emails.html

The emails and associated people are linked into a larger database covering AR4, NGOs etc. This can be accessed from: http://www.tome22.info/Top/ResearchEntrance.html

The whole database is being rewritten and there are some areas that have obviously never worked.

Is there any potential going further with this approach?
(Cross posted on JoNova)

Mar 13, 2013 at 10:18 PM | Unregistered Commenterpjb253

Any sign of the attachments missing from the earlier releases?

Mar 13, 2013 at 10:21 PM | Unregistered CommenterMark Fraser

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