Bishop Hill What next?
Feb 19, 2013 Energy: grid The energy regulator has repeated the point I made here a few days ago. With a swathe of coal-fired power stations ready to close in March, the chances of avoiding power cuts looks very slim.
Alistair Buchanan, chief executive of Ofgem, said the combination of UK power plants closing, foreign gas supplies shrinking, and demand rising, has made British energy reserves “uncomfortably tight”.
Writing in The Daily Telegraph ahead of an industry lecture today, Mr Buchanan has warned: “We have to face the likelihood that avoiding power shortages will also carry a price.”
Given that we have discussed this issue before, I wonder if we might turn our attentions to what is going to happen when the lights go out.
Who will get the blame? Renewables obsessed greens and their crony capitalist friends? Or wicked sceptics standing in their way? Will the main political parties be swept aside? Or will they merely change their tune and say they opposed it all along?
We are heading for interesting times, where "interesting" is as defined here.
Reader Comments (108)
I've just posted copiously on the BBC website (generating some gratifying plusses - I'm 'YOU' on there. by the way) not least of which I was tracking the progress of wind's contribution to UK electricity demand over an hour or so..
Currently 0.1% of demand (c.45000MW) but the detail is intesting (bear in mind that the table only shows to one decimal place)..
That '0.1%' has gone from 41MW, to 38MW, to 31MW..
If it falls to 22MW - the official contribution from wind would be ZERO...(less than 0.05%)
And this has cost us consumers, by way of subsidies, feed-in tariffs and the like to turbine builders, developers and landowners - HOW MUCH..?
Anthony Hanwell - I managed to get a 3.5kW generator - the last in the shop - for £125 from that strangest of supermarkets, Aldi - a year ago...
Haven't assembled it yet - but can't wait for the rolling power cuts...!
Further to my previous (and apologies for pressing the 'Create Post' tit twice) - wind is down to 27MW.....
Feb 19, 2013 at 12:36 PM | Salopian
Well maybe that could happen half way through a journey; I don't use the rail service that often. I did think that the electric and diesel trains ran on the same gauge though. ;)
Fair enough if you have a fear of that infrastructure change, but lumping an established 100 year plus rail electrification technology - you know, rails/overheads don't go anywhere and can be plugged in all the time - with electric cars seems a bit sloppy. It is not self-evident they are equivalent so maybe you shouldn't expect everyone to agree with you when you just assume that?
Oh and BTW I don't think I need to punctuate with an educative "Duh!" to say that electrification of rail networks has long been desired as being more economic in running costs and maintenance without any reference to polar bears. ;)
Anthony Hanwell
Thanks your post reminded me that I need to get our generator, currently sitting dormant in one of our outhouses (ex-outside bog actually) serviced and wired up.
The street lights have already been going out for some time in this county to save money. Time for some social "scientist" to start examining the road-safety statistics?
Meanwhile, back at the ranch, the BBC is reporting that the Carbon Trust is branching-out-and-going-for-growth by deciding to start lecturing us about water:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-21472506
I guess if there is less affordable electricity to pump water then that will save the water companies the effort of finding excuses to raise prices.
Mrs geronimo, not a woman to concern herself with politicians of any ilk, has recently announced that if Ed Miliband should, by any disastrous chance, become the next PM of the UK, we geronimos are decamping for a country with a less stupid PM. Apparently after researching potential destinations there are only 137 countries we can choose from.
Mrs. g, has researched CCS and has used the belief in its efficacy as a proof of ability to run a country. Miliband leads the list, in her inimitable style, of "dummys who wouldn't know there "£se from their elbow.
She, of course, neither knows, nor cares about the AGW debate, but is merely using an instinct, honed after 40 years of marriage to one, of recognising an idiot at 200 yards.
You’d think that even the dimmest of greenies would understand that, even if their worst fears about CAGW were true and their beliefs about the efficiency of renewable energy wholly valid, this policy is not only dangerously damaging but completely pointless. Whatever we do can make no appreciable difference: the UK's emissions are about 1.7% of the global total. Yet the world is racing away in the opposite direction: according to the World Resources Institute, 1,199 new coal-fired plants, with a total installed capacity of 1,401,278 megawatts are currently being planned globally, of which 76% is accounted for by China and India. See this – and note that seven EU countries, including “green” Germany, are planning new plant. And it’s extremely unlikely that any of this capacity will incorporate CCS “which remains a pipedream”: link.
Yet many greenies are certainly not dim.
PS: wind power is currently contributing only 0.06% (28MW) to our energy needs.
Don't know if this has been mentioned but now is the time to try and get even more electrically driven vehicles on the road and increase charging points. Maybe the Government should increase the subsidy to make this happen and guarantee a 10 year life on the battery. Sarc off/
Frankly I am still unable to understand how so many politicians and government officials are still unable "to see the light" and do a "German" on this country to keep the coal power stations going and building even more. They are building 23 so UK should probably settle for 12-14 on a population basis. I would simply inform The EU that this is a national emergency and they have no right to mettle. Davies should cancel that Climate Change Act tomorrow.
geronimo: lol, as idiots of a younger generation say.
The lights will go out, that is a given, all bets are off.
Burning gas, to produce electricity is economic madness but it seems to be our only alternative. Although any engineer worth his salt will tell you, coal should be used for base load generation of our electricity, nuclear is too far off in the distant future of never never land. Therefore, all coal power stations should be reprieved, in fact we must do as the Germans have realised and are getting on with - building more coal generating plant.
The biggest problem, all the outages will occur in the Winter months, we have a reasonably 'temperate' climate on this island but it does get cold n the UK. Try an experiment, at the end of this week, when the bitterly cold easterly winds come in off the continent, try switching off your CH and see how quickly and how frigid it becomes in the rooms of your house [then think on and imagine you are unable to cook warm food] and Lord knows; May, June, July and August can be cold enough.
The climate is becoming colder, Gaia has switched down her thermostat: the 'global warming' has been switched off by mother nature. For she, is a fay Goddess and man has no power to change her ways. So just as nature is changing, us poor ba****ds are caught up in the church of the green religion, stuck here at the mercy of the idiots in power who believe in the green agenda and kowtow to the carbon trading boys and hedge fund cowboys 'investing' your taxes in green boondoggles.
IN Britain: Cold kills! Not as the politicians tell or warn us about [laughably] - the nebulous 'future' summer weather.
When the lights go out and Wayne and Tracey can't watch Strictly, or X factor on their plasma TVs and are unable to microwave their horse meat lasagnes - then the pooh will hit the fan.
Miliband, Huhne, Davey, Blair your cards have been marked.
TLITB - "electrification of rail networks has long been desired as being more economic in running costs and maintenance "
That was before it became apparent that electricity is becoming increasingly more and more expensive and the Government cannot guarantee a secure 24/7 supply within a couple of years. Do you seriously think that a privatised rail system is going to be high up the priority list when it comes shortages? As to your reference to electric and diesel trains running on the same gauge, maybe so, but the operating companies rent their engines and rolling stock from other companies that own and maintain them. Do you seriously think that operating companies are going to rent diesels as well as electrics just in case, or that the rolling stock companies are going to keep diesels that are only used intermittently?
I've struggled through a few temporary power cuts with a little Honda 1.5kw - not really man enough to run anything more than the central heating, one fridge, telly & two lit rooms though. Once you get near full load the frequency gets unstable for telly, IT etc.
I'm thinking of getting a 5kw diesel for the "Great Green Leap to the Frozen Future". There are some cheap ones in places like Machine Mart - but the cheap & cheerful ones tend to be very noisy.
There are some nice compact ones, made for boats, with full sound insulation - but v expensive.
I found a really simply way of connecting one up, if you have a big house with several ring mains, was to make up a double ended lead with two 3-pin 13a plugs and feed the genny into a mains socket on the ring main you most need (ie kitchen for boiler, fridge, table lamp & kettle) having first isolated that ring main by means of its circuit breaker.
Then you can be cosy in the kitchen and wait for the lights to come on the rest of the house when the mains power returns (this may not be a consideration after the GGLFF).
Those with a more risk averse disposition and limited electrical skills might be safer to leave the main incoming house isolator off and rely on their neighbours for the good news.
Remember to unplug the genny before re-energising any circuits!
(This is all probably totally illegal by the way and I would never dream of recommending it :-)
I think the GGLFF is going to be quite fun at first, like being back in the Scouts - until you have to involve to the missus - who may be less enthusiastic for some inscrutable female reason.
Who to blame? [when the train we are currently watching fascinated as it runs at full throttle towards the buffers finally runs out of track]
The senior civil serpents at the Department of Energy and Climate Change, without question.
It is the job of the Civil Service to give governments sound advice - not to egg them on in their foolishness.
Richard Verney
“reduce car weight”
Slightly OT, but you’ve reminded me of a comparison between the Lotus Cortina of the late 60’s and the roughly equivalent ST170 Focus 40 years later - it turned out that their power/weight ratio was about the same, but that the lighter rear-drive Cortina was rather more fun. Progress, eh?
Here we are - 6KVA, soundproofed, electric start, diesel for £2k + VAT.
http://generators.co.uk/Product/Silent/Diesel_Pramac/P6000
I'm very tempted to stick one in the garage now - they may be out of stock soon.
"electrification of rail networks"
Remind me, someone - how much will HS2 consume at full speed?
@Feb 19, 2013 at 2:47 PM | Salopian
I might be arguing at cross purposes with you, but to be clearer: I don't think pessimism with current government policies should detract from supporting good ideas for the future. The large scale infrastructure of railways is a better manager of energy in an ideal world and electrification is a desired goal - in an ideal world. I think that is what is being argued here - the shape of the ideal world.
If, as it seems, the government is making the future energy infrastructure both unstable and expensive then they will indeed make that ideal world less likely to be attainable.
Me, I'm thinking of going for an LPG generator. A couple of big bottles and you're OK for days.
http://www.seddondirect.co.uk/rangeViewer.asp?categoryID=106&gclid=CJSm-Mmn7bICFYTMtAodmSwAfg
Fracking should have commenced in earnest years ago. Now we know that Britain has enough supplies of natural gas in shale rock to last 1500 years of heating British homes.
Somepoliticians should by now be languishing in a 6ft x 6ft villa with a small window overlooking a wind farm. Food delivered on a wide flat plate through vertical bars in the door. Door locked and key flushed down the toilet.
TLITB
As you say "in an ideal world". That is the problem, with the current crop of politicians, on both sides of the house who are wedded to the AGW scam and all it entails the goal of an ideal world, at least for the UK is totally unattainable. If, and only if, UK electricity supply can be guaranteed and cheap, then you can play with your electric trains to your hearts content. But that simply isn't going to happen unless renewables are dropped from the electricity generation chain and some serious money is spent on coal, gas and nuclear. Otherwise, increasing potential demand for electricity be it electric cars or increasing the rail network's dependency on electricity is just plain daft. Sorry, but it simply isn't a good idea in the present climate.
What is needed is to for 10 million homes with natural gas fuelled CHP via fuel cells and Stirling engines.
Then the middle classes can go and tell the oligopolists and carbon traders to self-breed whilst getting their investment back in 3 years by selling standby power, 10 GW to the grid.
The BBC interviewers do not question the Power Czars who are being interviewed.
Rather they explain further that it is inevitable that energy prices must rise.
Its like a double act where the interviewer asks lead in soft questions.
No questions like;
Why can Germany build 26 new coal fired power stations but we must close ours.
Is it true that 'Global Warming' stopped 16 years ago
How many old folk died last year of hypothermia.
How much energy is supplied by all Britain's wind turbines on a cold winter day.
etc,etc,etc.
Philip
That's an excellent idea, and they also run on natural gas - so that you could presumably plumb them into your gas meter and be completely independent with no fueling.
This one seems an amazing deal - 18KVA to power a large house completely with fully automatic changeover on power failure - installed and commissioned for just over £4k + VAT.
http://www.generatorstandbypower.co.uk/large-LPG-standby-generator.htm
Have you any idea of what the economics are of running a generator on mains gas? Since there are no green rip off charges - maybe it's a viable permanent alternative to mains electricity. If not now - then very soon when the greenstuff hits the fan.
Alec M
Any idea what domestic size Stirling CHP systems cost and what the payback is?
Bryan
Agree entirely, but no-one seems to give them the script. When even economically literate journos like Evan Davis can admit to not knowing the difference between MWh and GWh, you have to wonder...
"how much will HS2 consume at full speed"
In answer to my own earlier question, it looks like about 10MW per train. I suggest they don't use windmills...
A cable with a 13A plug on each end is a fatality waiting to happen.
Foxgoose 2:59,
Not entirely sure if it is actually illegal, but my main concern would be the lead, plugs or sockets overheating and catching fire, especially if you got up to the top limit. Would stick to the approach suggested by Anthony earlier, you don't need to get it done professionally if you know what you're doing, but best to have it checked by your local authority or a qualified sparky to avoid any possible future legal/insurance problems.
When the battery's dead on your electric start generator, scream 'Bryony Brownout' each time you crank it manually. Paleolithic exercise.
=================
OK, I get 'Bryony Blackout'. This frigeeosity is a beeyotch.
=========================
Well we know Politicians will be innocent. They, and our 'civil service', never take the blame for their blundering into that of which they know nothing. The Eco Taliban can't be blamed because that would require 'politicians' to explain exactly why they were listening to the Taliban in the first place.
The EU cannot be blamed because, as we have seen with the 'Horse scandal', pointing out that some POSS (pile of steaming ...) is down to it being an exclusive ''EU competence' is not something either our 'politicians' or 'journalists' are allowed to mention to the public.
So, who is left? Big energy - they will fight back. Subsidy farmers - see Eco Taliban. As we have seen from some quarters with the Horse scandal perhaps the 'consumer' is to blame - all that demand for cheap energy 'n' all.
I honestly don't know who will be blamed. I can say who should.
The 'sustainability' Taliban. They have a much 'wider base (where it counts (UN/EU)' than the 'greens'.
The 'greens' who would vote for a shut down of the 'West' if it were on a ballot paper. Even though they would be the first to die.
My top blame' would go to ... Our, beyond dense, politicians who sold (to the EU) their right to make UK policy a long time ago but would then happily let FoE (Byrony) tell them exactly how to implement the latest EU directive.
Clowns cluttering up our Parliament and S. London Wine bars letting FoE detail energy policy for a modern industrialised nation - you just couldn't make it up.
C4 News covering this story shortly, blaming Labour and the Coalition for a failure of planning... being C4 News, that's likely to be considered a failure to build more windmills.
In the news on BBC1 at 6pm tonight a reporter said that power stations would have to be closed because of "climate change targets." Of course no right-thinking person would ever consider the obvious alternative of abolishing the climate change targets instead of the power stations, would they?
The BBC also seems to be extremely reluctant to mention the role of the EU in setting those targets. No doubt the BBC won't want to give any ammunition to euro-sceptics, even though Andrea Merkel does not seem to be restrained by the EU when it comes to deciding on Germany's energy policies.
Completely supine reporting by C4 News as expected. Forget fracking until sometime after 2020. We'll just have to grin and bear it apparently with some more efficiencies round the house (yet more?), but more renewables might be coming on stream in a few years so we won't be as dependent on expensive foreign gas. No, really. ffs.
I thought it might be worth posting this BH link from 2 years ago: Planning for power cuts
http://www.bishop-hill.net/blog/2011/1/4/planning-for-power-cuts.html
There are lots of possibilities for UPS/auto changeover/combination systems using marine equipment. I can also see this ominous future leading to houses being re-wired with two different circuits: One for non essential loads via the mains, and another powering basic lighting, central heating, PC's & TV's etc from an alternative source.
The scientists will be blamed
Bcos the politicians, media, ngo's, activists, etc,etc would say we are not scientists
And ALL science will get the blame, not just climate science.
I so agree, woodentop: I didn't expect much of C4 News but was daft enough to think they might do better than this. No hint of the kind of obvious question that would be routine for almost any other topic: Why must we close down this capacity? What would happen if we didn't? Would it matter? And hadn't any of their researchers found that seven EU countries, including Germany, are planning new coal-fired plants - none of it with CCS? So why can't we? As for the key observation that our future saviour, renewables, has been contributing much less than 1% to our power demand for most of today - well, I didn't expect that to be mentioned. Nor was I disappointed.
Will the media ever wake up to what's really happening?
No-one seems to have considered that even if you have a generator there may (depending on the area affected by the power cut) be no internet, no mobile phone service, no TV to receive and MW/LW radio only. Shops and supermarkets will not be open so there will not be much going on outside your home.
I was airborne in a small plane near Toledo, Ohio on my way to Traverse City, Michigan when the major Northeast blackout of 2003 happened. The first I heard of it was an instruction from air traffic control to deviate from my route and head west. Air traffic controllers have standby generators which automatically start up but the radar transmitters that they normally rely on do not. Control without radar becomes procedural which puts a great strain on the capacity of the airways. Aircraft with a destination inside the affected area were being diverted to destinations outside the area. I managed to get a clearance for a low-level route through Canadian airspace to the east of Detroit and on up into central Michigan where power continued to be available. The radio chatter was a constant stream of commercial aircraft re-planning their flights to take them outside the area of the blackout. The disruption was considerable, both in the air and on the ground.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northeast_Blackout_of_2003
Oh. We have truly returned to the 1970's.
"The cost of environmental policies are going to start to become harder and harder to bury from the view of the public."
I feel that this is only the means and that the object is more leftist policy/ideology nationally and globally.
So for me it's more "The cost of implementing more leftist solutions/policy/ideology is going to be hard for the people to understand"?
I haven't had time to read all the previous posts so apologies if someone has beat me to it. Maybe, just maybe, someone in authority with some common sense has produced this story to draw attention to shale gas being the solution to the problem.
I have yet to check this out but I heard that one or two German companies are now marketing domestic boilers which are mini CHP plants. The concept would give close to 100% fuel efficiency and give the householder electric KW at gas KW prices. If correct, that would take out a few birds with one stone.
Maybe someone - perhaps in Germany - knows more?
Re: Richard Verney on car weight.
My first car was an 850cc Mini (it actually was a lightweight Mini, having been made in 1959 with "thinner steel"). No matter how I drove it, it always returned 33-34 mpg. It was capable of struggling to a bit better than 70mph, but I cruised at about 65 for fear that the rods and pistons would be joining me in the cabin. It's only concession to comfort was a heater.
My current car is a 2 litre wagon. It cruises at any speed I choose up to flat out and gives me 28mpg. It's loaded with kit, climate control, electric windows, air bags etc etc. All of the improvements in thermal efficiency have been counteracted by bloat. I'm not neccesarily opposed to that, I'd much rather be in the Subaru rather than the Mini if I'm going to have a big accident.
The apogee was in the 1970s when a MkI Diesel Golf could give 60mpg or better. But it would also fold up like a house of cards in an accident. The customers have spoken: they trade economy for security.
The Telegraph's first editorial this morning is headed The price we will pay for dithering on energy - its subheading: For a decade and more, Britain has failed to treat energy provision as a priority - and we are further from fixing the problem than ever
True. But it goes on to say this:
Why: what's wrong with the ideal world?
What will happen when the power goes out? Depends how long they go out. After a few months of no power, the wind turbine towers will look very much like gallows to the wild-eyed survivors looking for places to park their greenies.
Steve Jones wrote
quote
Maybe, just maybe, someone in authority with some common sense has produced this story to draw attention to shale gas being the solution to the problem.
unquote
I've commented to that effect on one of the DT's articles. It's Mencken's hobgoblin: they calculate that when the BGS estimate of shale reserves is released (they've been sitting on it while working out what to do, knighthoods all round) then suddenly all the solutions will fall into place. Lower CO2, no foreign exchange costs, security, clean, jobs. The idea is that this will blindside the Greens and anyone opposing shale development will be seen as an anti-patriotic nimby. For a fictional example of how the process works, see Lewis's /That Hideous Strength/
My advice would be to stop treating voters as children to be manipulated and tell the truth, it's shale gas or starve in the dark. Truth... oh, sorry, politicians, sorry, silly me.
JF
“The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led
to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary.” H L Mencken
Why is this news..?
Those of us (that includes all of you lot, obviously) could see this coming YEARS ago - but because we've got idiots in government and in the Department of Energy and (ha..!) Climate Change, having listened to the 'green' activists and allowed Baroness Worthington full reign to create the daftest piece of legislation its possible to imagine - we've got a full-scale crisis.
The irony yesterday (19th Feb) could not have been more carefully planned by the Department of Unintended Consequences - the government was promoting electric cars at the same time that the boss of Ofgem announced the above crisis; and output from wind farms was creeping perilously close to virtual zero output.
(By the way - a quick look at the Surface Pressure Charts - something actually useful which the Met Office produces - seems to indicate that we are heading for the same situation at the end of the week. Watch this space...)
However - isn't it strange that whatever the government announces - whether its roads; rail fares; pensions; food safety; energy; you name it - its always going to 'cost more'..?
Robin Guenier - the Germans seem to live in that 'ideal world'..!
And another thing (as Jeremy Clarkson is fond of saying when in full cry) - the above 'crisis' was being reported on whichever news channel I happened to be watching last night - and the parting shot from the reporter was that: 'We have to insulate our homes more'...
Oh, right - what a splendid idea - that'll solve everything..!