Bishop Hill Shale will be too late
Oct 8, 2013 Energy: grid ;)
Benedict Brogan sets out the painful truth that any developments on the shale gas front are likely to come too late to prevent a power crisis in the UK. With the energy policies of successive governments disjointed, disconnected, uncoordinated, unthinking and unfeeling we are left with the likelihood of power cuts, brownouts or, more likely in my opinion, price rises on an unimaginable scale.
The National Grid yesterday announced that its reserve supply of domestically produced electricity had dropped to troubling levels, and that only the availability of power from the Continent would prevent blackouts. Long before we might hope to begin banking the shale windfall, the lights will go out.
This is the inevitable consequence of handing over control of a key industry to politicians. It is planning that is the problem, not the solution.
Reader Comments (80)
Oh, almost forgot that wonderful quote of Salmond's -
"At the end of the day, you know, no man can tether time nor tide, and certainly you can’t control the elements. I am very sad that a decent man, a competent minister has been forced to resignation because of the extremities of the climate"
Remind me again.... just what exactly were they hoping to accomplish with these policies of theirs........
http://omnologos.com/climate-change-minister-resigns-because-of-the-extremities-of-the-climate/
(And thanks for that terrific post omnologos)
Dave ward: our politicians have simply not faced up to what happens when the cash dispensers can't work, nor can EFTPOS.
Three missed meals give revolution with marauding mobs getting control of food supplies and creating the black market.
The plans already include arming police for martial law. This was considered in 2011.
Only when their own homes are trashed or their children are killed will those stupid, ignorant politicians realise that they are playing with sociological fire.
Most trains in the South are electric. Not sure what they use as backup, but a failure there (of traction and signalling) would be utterly chaotic. Still, I suppose a railway carriage is a reasonable place to be if your house is being trashed...
ConfusedPhoton wrote:
I tend to think that careful writers should avoid any suggestion that the architects of this lunacy acted in good faith.
More journalistic drivel. The fossil fuel industry runs British energy policy. That's why prices keep going up and no one stops them.
Smiffy - if you really believe that, then you need to take a couple aspirin and lie down for an hour or two. It's not the "fossil fuel industry" that keeps getting invited to little chats with the Secretary of State. Do your homework.
I'm not saying that energy companies are whiter than white but the current energy situation is being driven by the mania for renewables dictated partly by the global warming myth and partly by Agenda 21. If Europe were exploiting its natural resources to best effect the little greeny men would be screaming with pain even louder than they are already but energy prices would — at an admittedly rough guess — be only 60-65% of what they actually are.
And we would all — little greeny men and the environment as well — be better off than we are. Though I suspect they would find a reason to complain about that as well.
Its all been said above - and for years and years by engineers (I include myself), who could see this coming like a train.
A question - does that 'capacity' figure which National Grid and our lunatic politicians quote, include wind and - er - solar..? If it does, you might as well discount it - because you can bet your sweet bippy that maximum demand (which, incidentally, has been over 60GW, not the convenient 59.5GW which is also being quoted) will be on a dark, windless afternoon just before Christmas... (OR - just possibly - Christmas morning, when the whole country is cooking its turkeys..!)
Furthermore, the 'Oh, its alright chaps - we can import power from France if it comes to it', is up there with Alec Salmond's faery breath to drive Scotland. When it does, indeed, come to it, the French will say: 'Sorry, Tommy - we 'ave ze same demande maximum and we 'ave no spare - 'ow you say - gigawatts...'
You can bet your life that when the UK demand for electricity approaches the supply, the French inter-connector will mysteriously be "unavailable due to technical issues".
Philip
The french denied italy and germany supplies a few years back mainly because france has no backup. It runs very close to max power in cold winters. We had not had any cold winters since the late 90s through to 2007 so there had never been any pressure on the system to test it. Dec 1999 we had the 2 great storms which wiped out major cross country power lines but all was renewed and working normally fairly quickly.
The french will not deliberately block transmission because, being socialist, it needs the money to spend but our winters are very similar to the UK particularly in the north of france so is the UK has a severe winter so do we and with both countries sailing close to the wind and all of europe forced in to non carbon sources by our dictatorship colapse seems inevitable eventually.
Shell have been pushing hard for de-carbonisation (can't say why) paying enormous sums to the ecofreaks to come up with disruptive policies. Perhaps people will eventually see where the problems lie and hang the lot of them but I doubt it.
I have long been of the view that, whatever the climate 'scientists' or the IPCC come up with and however many cracks there are in the 'consensus' view, cAGW will only be finally put to bed when all the politicians that have so enthusiastically nailed their colours to the greenie mast have retired or died. Or, if the people of this country start to have to shiver in the dark. That's when things will get interesting.
Oct 8, 2013 at 9:46 AM | Unregistered Commentermartin brumby
It's worse than that. Shell organise regular indoctrination sessions which are fully funded by them. Lavish meals and accommodation all focused on decarbonisation. There are € billions €, hundreds of thousands of people worldwide who rely on this scam. It's size is unimaginable. It will only die if we have a massive and violent revolution in the west. Nothing else will come anywhere near to changing the status quo.
On paper we should be fine, albeit over charged and in an emergency the STOR will prevent blackouts. Frankly there's very little we can do about an energy shortfall right now, but what it does do is bring us to a point where the unexpected could tear up the plans. There are a number of worrying candidates for the 'unexpected' and of course there's no guarantee that they have to arrive singly.
The last winter epidemic was about 2000 but you have to go back to about 1990 for one of the biggies. If you ignore the damp squib of swine flu, our last true pandemic was in the late 60s and a very novel flu strain makes you much more ill than a familiar one. People are off work for longer and are less able when they return. We have had over 20 years without a crippling disease outbreak and we have a generation of business plans, managers and even civil servants that have never been tested under those conditions. Even on basic influenza scales we might conclude we could be overdue for a major outbreak but there are two diseases on the horizon that have the potential for much bigger disruption. H7N9 and MERS are very severe and have many of the tools they need to start moving freely between humans. There’s no guarantee they will ever be more than a localised problem but even small outbreaks of sustained human to human transmission could cause global chaos. It might mean people are reluctant to go to work or send their kids to school and hoarding might disrupt what should be a smoothly flowing supply of necessities.
There are a series of industries which are primed for strikes. Can you imagine a point where diesel prices are spiralling because of a high demand by electricity generators and the lorry drivers go on strike? The protests in 2000 were in the summer, how much more effective would they have been in the winter? THE CEGB thanked it's lucky stars back in the 70s that Scargill didn't quite grasp the bargaining power of winter electricity demand and they quickly realised that a huge pile of coal at each power station was an excellent way to weather months of miner's strikes. Those coal stocks and even the power stations are now history.
It doesn’t even need a real emergency for problems to arise, just the threat can spawn the crisis people fear. Or the final straw could come from something else entirely. Channel 4 explored this issue a few weeks back. It’s a drama and shouldn’t be viewed any other way but it should make people think about what we take for granted.
http://www.channel4.com/programmes/blackout/4od
We don’t have spare capacity for fun, it’s a safety net and we have become complacent over a number of years where very few real crises happened. Like many business gambles, if you can get away without excess stock/capacity then you’re laughing but is energy something we should be playing chicken with? Like the banking industry, can we maintain an appearance of success while the seeds of disaster are being knowingly sown? Will guilty people end up looking shocked and pretend they never saw the problems coming if the gamble doesn't work?
I don't know how close the capacity is to the brink and if we have a mild winter, everyone will be saying that it's all alarmism but if ministers are gambling that there will be no blackouts we need to make sure that they pay if we discover they're more Bernie Madoff than Warren Buffett.
Even if it results in Milliband this time, we have to VOTE UKIP
DECC = Department of Energy or Climate Change ( apparently).
Going a bit OT but comments about the fanaticism of some environmentalists bring to mind Rainbow Six, by the great Tom Clancy, who has just died. In that, a bunch of environmental loonies plot to wipe out 90% of the world's population by a modified virus, so that the select few who remain (inoculated) can enjoy the natural world, where wild animals roam and man no longer contaminates the planet. Far fetched of course, but Clancy captures the tone of the more hysterical "tree huggers" beautifully.
Don't need to panic just buy and install a few thousand MW scale (or smaller) nat gas IC gensets, and install them at local switching stations. Should cost <1£billion to give £2-4GW with 3-6 months leadtime, and are extremely easy to connect to grid (effectively just a couple of wires).
100MW+ plants can't be installed quickly because transformers and grid connections take many years to get order/build and install.
Do you remember a few years back when the Eastern Bloc was failing and the people were taking out their frustration on the leaderships? Remember what happened to Caesescu for ruining his country? He was 'taken round the back' and shot. If only! Sadly those responsible for ruining this country will no doubt be elevated to the Lords and live the rest of their lives in comfort. This should not happen - there should be punitive remedies for such dereliction and wilful neglect.
RobL " buy and install a few thousand MW scale (or smaller) nat gas IC gensets, and install them at local switching stations." The problem is not a shortage of gas power stations, but it could be a shortage of gas.
Several people have mentioned Richard North's pieces on STOR etc but I'm not sure if anyone has posted this key link - apologies if I missed it:
http://www.eureferendum.com/results.aspx?keyword=STOR%20generators
lapogus on Oct 8, 2013 at 10:59 AM
"Yes, off course the Energy Ministers and Prime and First Ministers are ultimately responsible, but ....."
Energy company bosses (directors) have a duty to make a sustainable good return on wealth invested for their share holders.
That is common knowledge. That is why the Government needs a National Energy Policy: in order to help the energy companies choose the right options.
If there was a quality National Energy Policy and the Energy Companies were seen to misbehave, then it ought to be in the News. Unfortunately, we don't have a quality National Energy Policy. And as far as I know we don't have a National Energy Policy. We have a National Deindustrialisation Policy, with which the Energy Companies are finding it hard to empathise!
I therefore cannot see how the Energy Companies can be blamed, though guilty by omission, I would have to concede, but only on grounds of common sense or patriotism and not for any breach of duty! But that in itself may breach the regulations that directors have to abide by. A difficult situation to be in. No wonder they are well remunerated!
What else can the companies do? Do the Minister's job for him? He has "Civil Servants" to do that!
Many of the companies are not British owned or run by native Britons so, to them, Britain is just a big customer!
The DECC advisors are a different matter, but if your promotion, or just job security, was dependent on toeing the official line, what would your choice be?
The British voters voted to save the world, and they are trashing Britain on the way!
The fact that the current Cabinet have no idea how to run a business, including the Department for Business, Innovation & Skills (BIS), does not help either.
Global production of shale gas (dominantly the US, of course) should steady global gas prices.
The US shale gas story may have been fine for consumers but it has been an absolute disaster for investors as the producing companies have destroyed capital because their cost of producing the gas has been much greater than the revenues that came from that gas. The same is true of shale oil, which is also uneconomic. No matter what the UK government does, shale is not and cannot be a true solution.
Does anyone know when and where: National Grid yesterday announced that its reserve supply of domestically produced electricity had dropped to troubling levels, and that only the availability of power from the Continent would prevent blackouts"? It wasn't on the company's list of press releases and doesn't seem to have been picked up anywhere else in the MSM. The statement seems to be to important to be left as a side note to an article on fracking.
Vangel you are a troll and nothing more, you know the problem in the US is that they can not export gas yet and you know that in 2015 they will be able to do that. You should also know that the Henry Hub price has been hovering around the break even price this year making it easier for them to hang on. Engage in discussion or bugger off.
Too late for this winter but I suspect there will be new legislation to fast track Smart Meters into all properties during 2014 to allow for control (flexible pricing natch) of consumers useage.
Frank
I think that was reported in today's Telegraph.
Dave_G
Under current legislation they can only install a smart meter if you agree to it. Installation of such a meter actually allows them to directly control/ration your electricity or even disconnect you so do not agree.
>Does anyone know when and where: National Grid yesterday announced that its reserve supply of domestically produced electricity had dropped to troubling levels, and that only the availability of power from the Continent would prevent blackouts"? <
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/energy/10360751/Blackout-risk-this-winter-highest-in-a-decade-warns-National-Grid.html
This one from 2 April 2013:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-22001787
Just got back from a short stay in Perthshire visiting family. In the 18 months since my last visit the proliforation of wind and solar is truly amazing. Wind has a two prong change large (6+ Large turbines) coupled with small turbines in ones and twos all over the county. Solar panels on domestic premises have taken off from virtually nothing. All on the the back of Alec Salmond's push for de-carbonisation.
As my brother is a Guardian reader a sensible conversation is not easy, but I think even he is a bit concerned at the visual impact. However I did have a conversation with a couple who are just starting a B&B business who are objecting to proposal by a foreign based landowner hoping to install 8 large turbines in his conifer plantation which has access tracks created by the building of the Beauly-Denny transmission line. It's a double whammy for them pylons and a wind farm. Presumably there a quite a few applications like this one on the Beauly-Denny route.
It is vandalism on an industrial scale, unfortunately it has as much chance of success as the Groundnut Scheme.
Although we know many thousands more pensioners will die every year in fuel poverty thanks to the deliberate government lunacy of pursuing an expensive energy policy rather than a cheap one, those responsible will not be among them. On average state sector pensions (funded by the private sector as is everything of the state) are some £10,000 p.a. more than private sector pensions, which to be honest for large swathes of the population are virtually non-existent anyway. Thus MPs and civil servants are completely "insulated" from the energy disaster they have wilfully contrived. Hardly surprising they continue blithely to ignore the realities of energy supply and climate alarmism, the consequences simply do not and never will affect them in the same way. Piano wire and lamp posts.
Any electrical engineers around (sadly I am mechanical) who are able to put a figure on how many megawatts it will take to shove a 300 tonne HS2 train through the countryside at 225mph..?
@Sherlock1 - I'm neither (at least not professionally!)' but from Wiki the BR class 395 (HS1) has a total input power of 3360 kW. However once up to speed I expect it would be quite a bit less than that. As with any vehicle most energy is used to accelerate it from rest, and once at a steady speed it's just mechanical & aerodynamic drag to contend with.
Husq: Thanks for the reference to National Grid. Now the trick is to arrange for this expert testify in front of Parliament. Unfortunately, he is comfortable relying on Europe for backup.
David Coe: "the world in general will begin at that point to appreciate the impact of the lunacy imposed upon us by duplicitous politicians."
That's UK's future role and contribution to the globe: " 'orrible example".