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« Wilson on millennial temperature reconstructions | Main | Monday open thread »

Diary date: Murry Salby

Murry Salby, who studies the carbon dioxide budget from his base in Australia, is visiting the UK at the start of November and will give a number of talks - two in London and one in Cambridgeshire.

Details are available at the link below.


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I did quite lengthy post here two days back but it fell into the blackhole that was eathing all at that time.

I'll be more brief this time.


Looks like you test data is 1.5K pk-pk 9year + 1K 60 + 1K/century trend. Seems like suitable guesses at climate-like. In fact it sounds a lot like the residual of Steve_L's pseudo-ramsdorfian regression exercise that he refused to show anyone on the grounds that it might "encourage" me.

One thing I notice is your modelled CO2 output is general upward curvature. Where does this come from ? What time const are you using ?

If you do a cold start at zero time with a time const of about 20 years most of this will probably be the transient term but as far as I can tell by eye there is still some curvature even towards the end. Any comment on that?

I recall you were initially rather sceptical of my interpretation of the simple relaxation response as forcing + diff(forcing) , it seems you now accept that alternative derivation.

What was the scaling factor you used on the graph to overlay temp and d/dt(CO2) ? Does it have any relation to the 9ppmv/K/a that I extracted from real data:

All this is of course based on a simplistic single slab ocean model. I'm unsure whether the reduced figure of 4 ppmv/K/a that I got from 50 year average is due to the reduction of the coeff of the orthogonal cmpt or the need to introduce a second ocean layer in the model.

You stated that the simple model could easily be extended. What would the Laplacian solution be for a 2-slab model?

I'm sure some relevant information can be gleaned from the phase relationship of various derivatives, so this merits further work.

Nov 13, 2013 at 6:01 PM | Unregistered CommenterGreg Goodman

Just in case Paul_K (or anyone else) ever visits this thread again, here is a provisional look at a single slab ocean response to CO2 as a function of temperature:

Nov 15, 2013 at 11:16 AM | Unregistered CommenterGreg Goodman

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