Monday
Oct212013
by 
Bishop Hill
Bishop Hill Diary date: Murry Salby
Oct 21, 2013 Diary dates ;)
Murry Salby, who studies the carbon dioxide budget from his base in Australia, is visiting the UK at the start of November and will give a number of talks - two in London and one in Cambridgeshire.
Details are available at the link below.
Reader Comments (102)
I did quite lengthy post here two days back but it fell into the blackhole that was eathing all at that time.
I'll be more brief this time.
Paul_K:
http://img837.imageshack.us/img837/8824/a7uw.jpg
Looks like you test data is 1.5K pk-pk 9year + 1K 60 + 1K/century trend. Seems like suitable guesses at climate-like. In fact it sounds a lot like the residual of Steve_L's pseudo-ramsdorfian regression exercise that he refused to show anyone on the grounds that it might "encourage" me.
One thing I notice is your modelled CO2 output is general upward curvature. Where does this come from ? What time const are you using ?
If you do a cold start at zero time with a time const of about 20 years most of this will probably be the transient term but as far as I can tell by eye there is still some curvature even towards the end. Any comment on that?
I recall you were initially rather sceptical of my interpretation of the simple relaxation response as forcing + diff(forcing) , it seems you now accept that alternative derivation.
What was the scaling factor you used on the graph to overlay temp and d/dt(CO2) ? Does it have any relation to the 9ppmv/K/a that I extracted from real data:
http://climategrog.wordpress.com/?attachment_id=623
http://climategrog.wordpress.com/?attachment_id=233
All this is of course based on a simplistic single slab ocean model. I'm unsure whether the reduced figure of 4 ppmv/K/a that I got from 50 year average is due to the reduction of the coeff of the orthogonal cmpt or the need to introduce a second ocean layer in the model.
You stated that the simple model could easily be extended. What would the Laplacian solution be for a 2-slab model?
I'm sure some relevant information can be gleaned from the phase relationship of various derivatives, so this merits further work.
Just in case Paul_K (or anyone else) ever visits this thread again, here is a provisional look at a single slab ocean response to CO2 as a function of temperature:
http://climategrog.wordpress.com/?attachment_id=625