Bishop Hill More indium
Jun 22, 2012 BBC Bureaucrats Economics A few weeks back I looked at a BBC article which raised the spectre of a worldwide shortage of indium, a rare element much in demand for LCD screens. Despite the BBC's alarm, it appeared that people in the industry were in fact quite sanguine about their ability to meet rising demand.
Roger Harrabin has now picked up the baton in this area, discussing a Green Alliance paper that seeks to encourage recycling and considers metal supply as part of this. As Harrabin explains, according to the paper there is a problem with indium.
Iron and aluminium are so abundant they didn't get a mention. There was little concern expressed for copper, silver or chromium.
But there were substantial worries over the minerals that are gold dust for the new economy: antimony, used in flame-retardants and micro-electronics; the platinum group of metals, used in catalytic converters, fuel cells, phones and hard discs; and lithium, used in batteries.
Indium was a greater concern still - it's used in flat screens and touch screens.
This was a bit of a surprise to me, since, as I mentioned above, people in the industry have no great concerns about supply. So I wondered how it was that the Green Alliance might conclude otherwise.
Their report is a meta analysis of seven studies, by bodies such as Defra, the House of Commons Science and Technology COmmittee, the Scottish Environmental Protection Agency, and the EU. Here are some of the relevant excerpts:
The EU
-more than 81% of the EU’s imports of indium originate in China
- recycling possibilities for indium are limited mainly to manufacturing residues, whereas substitution is possible in some applications only
Primary indium production, a by-product of zinc production, may decrease as a result of market zinc surplus. This may also mean that producers are unable to respond quickly to increases in demand. The impact of restrictions on exports by major indium suppliers could also result in market uncertainty. The most critical activity to maintain balance between supply and demand is perhaps the ability of countries to recover indium from electrical components and scrap, although much of the potential reserves for recovery are likely still in use by businesses, and until discarded will not be available for the global market for recovery.
Defra (and do I detect some similarities between the Defra text and the SEPA one?)
Primary indium production, as a by product of zinc production, may decrease as a result of market zinc surplus. This may also mean that indium producers are unable to respond quickly to increases in demand. The impact of restrictions on exports by major indium suppliers could also result in market uncertainty. The most critical activity to maintain balance between supply and demand is the ability of countries to recover indium from electrical components and scrap.
You get the drift. Indium comes from China, it's a by product of zinc production and it's not recycled.
Except the problem is that this appears to be only half the story. EU indium supply may well come from China (why is that a problem?) but there are large indium resources in North and South America amongst other places. And according to this document from the US Geological Survey indium was already being recycled from scrap LCDs in Japan in 2004.
The truth appears to be that there is precisely no problem with indium supply. As if to confirm the point, here is the latest from the Indium Corporation, the world's largest supplier of the metal:
According to the U.S. Geological Survey statistics, the worldwide output of indium metal has increased 7X since 1980. We believe that this trend will continue and supply will expand to meet demand.
The indium supply has been bolstered by continued improvement in recycling programs. In the rapidly growing LCD market, greater than 85% of non-deposited indium is reclaimed and returned to the supply chain.
We believe the currently-observed price fluctuations are primarily due to a time lag between emerging demand and available supply. As has been observed in previous cycles, the Indium Corporation believes higher prices will draw forward additional supplies which will alleviate any scarcity.
It's almost as if the Green Alliance and the civil servants who prepared the underlying reports are all operating in a parallel universe, one which bears no meaningful relationship to the one in which indium is actually produced and bought and sold and turned into useful goods.
I think what we are seeing is environmentalists pushing their ideological agenda, civil servants trying to expand their bureaucratic territories, and the BBC acting as cheerleader. It just leaves you wondering what happened to the public interest in all this.
Reader Comments (60)
Indium is a rare earth. This something of a misnomer. Rare earth minerals are not concentrated in a seam like gold, silver, tin, etc. Rare earth minerals are "rare" because they are just about everywhere in very small concentrations.
The problem is collecting it and concentrating it into usable volumes. This can be very damaging to the environment. China has become a world leader in the production of rare earth minerals because their environmental requirements are less stringent.
Controlling a large supply of rare earth minerals has given China certain leverage in that they require companies like Apple to do their manufacturing in China. This has trade implications that concerns industry and governments.
Peak Indium...
Peak Oil...
Peak Insanity...?
Seriously indium is code for the products. At present indium is essential for touch screens and blue lasers. And will be until another Mr Nakamura finds an alternative. Then it will no longer be essential and Peak Indium will become like Peak Horse Manure.
The Minerals Information program now managed by the U.S. Geological Survey was created by the U.S. Bureau of Mines. The Congress, in its infinite wisdom, decided in 1995 to abolish that agency. The Minerals Information program was transferred to the USGS.
As a former USBM researcher, it does me proud to see the work that the USBM invested in strategic and critical minerals is still useful in grounding politicians in reality.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Bureau_of_Mines
"Indium is a rare earth. "
Afraid not. The rare eartjs are the lanthanides plus Y and Sc. So Indium is not a rare earth.
It is a rare metal, yes, it's also a minor metal (ie, produced as a by product) but not a rare earth.
Correction to my Jun 22, 2012, 11.41 posting.
Mary's Meals charity is active mainly in Malawi, not Zambia. Though I believe it has tentacles out in other parts of the region. (And after the boost from Martha Payne, who knows?!)
Simply confirms Ridley's argument, mooloo. The dodo, like the great auk, was not non-renewable. It just didn't renew itself fast enough to cope with predation. Different thing altogether.
The contention that the earth's resources are finite is accurate in the sense that since the earth itself is finite therefore each of its component parts is also finite.
In terms of the physical quantity of each of those parts (metals, elements, whatever) they are to all intents and purposes infinite at least in terms of their usage by human beings. Indium and uranium are good examples. We have only recently discovered a major use for indium, the current amount in the earth's crust is sufficient (as I understand it) for several thousand years, and we have already identified a possible replacement. I can't remember off-hand how much uranium is available to be extracted from sea water should we feel the need and a possible replacement (thorium) has also be identified should the technology work out.
The only point on which I would disagree with Bruce of Newcastle is, you think this is 'peak insanity'? I doubt it!
I blame all the shortage on the oversupply of Governmentium, as defined by Anon:
"Governmentium:
To heck with copper or moly or niobium or germanium or gallium or arsenic,.............lets get some Governmentium.
New research has led to the discovery of the heaviest element yet known to science. The new element, Governmentium (Gv), has one neutron, 25 assistant neutrons, 88 deputy neutrons, and 198 assistant deputy neutrons, giving it an atomic mass of 312.
These 312 particles are held together by forces called morons, which are surrounded by vast quantities of lepton-like particles called peons. Since Governmentium has no electrons, it is inert; however, it can be detected, because it impedes every reaction with which it comes into contact. A minute amount of Governmentium can cause a reaction that would normally take less than a second to take from four days to four years to complete. Governmentium has a normal half-life of 5 years; It does not decay, but instead undergoes a reorganization in which a portion of the assistant neutrons and deputy neutrons exchange places. In fact, Governmentium's mass will actually increase over time, since each reorganization will cause more morons to become neutrons, forming isodopes.
This characteristic of moron promotion leads some scientists to believe that Governmentium is formed whenever morons reach a critical level of concentration. This hypothetical quantity is referred to as critical morass. When catalyzed with money, Governmentium becomes Administratium, an element that radiates just as much energy as Governmentium since it has half as many peons but twice as many morons."
scarcity of things is an illusion. the only scarcity is of ideas on how to make do with what's available. show me a piece of the earth's crust, and I can see computer CPUs and lots of gas to breathe.
Have these people forgotten the Club of Rome and its report on The Limits To Growth? I remember an irritating USian talking about how the US had plans to use all the copper in the world -- he was polite enought to wonder what the rest of us would do.
It can no longer be ignorance talking -- these people must know they are talking nonsense. Are they just arrogant, confident in their ability to fool people? Are they evil, selling a flakey and dangerous product to the gullible in order to enrich themselves? Or are they just foolish, thinking that by panicking the world then a new paradise will be created where all share and we live in harmony with nature?
MY bet is they're barking bleedin' mad, fuzzy-minded, full of teenage rebellion, puffed up with their defiance of an imaginary establishment which is intent on doing down the planet. Childish dreams which could all too easily end in nightmare.
I used to put money in the collecting tins for WWF, even FOE (not GreenPeace, it was easy to see that a) they are simply CND in a greenshirt and b) they're a load of posers). No longer -- not even OXFAM -- because I don't trust them to use the money productively rather than fritter it away on some renewable energy or other green scam. I still contribute to TEAR Fund, but even they are banging on about Climate Change, which makes me think they are going the same way.
The one charity I really trust is Orbis -- they cure blindness, get on with it as cheaply as possible and they've never told me that I am saving people from some hideous disease which computer models prove may possibly perhaps be rampant in the fens by 2035.
Oldimer
Your post was the funnyest thing I have read this year ^.^
Julian Flood
Yes they know they are talking rubbish but they also know that most people will instinctively respond to their non-existant problem by doing what they want.
The guy who wrote Merchants of Despair, Robert Zubrin apparently has a PHD in Nuclear Engineering which gives a lot of weight to some of the stuff in his book.
One area he covered was Fusion and the almost certainty that it will work. Apparently at the temperatures involved and with the state of the matter in the taurus being plasma, electrons are flowing free of the protons and neutrons and we can make any elements we want.
Please send any detailed questions on this to Mr Zubrin ^.^
In terms of energy he is 100% pro nuclear power from both Uranium and Thorium. He gave figures claiming that there is enough Uranium and Thorium to power us for 250,000 years.
By that time we should have colonised half the galaxy.
And us dumb schmucks are forced to use energy saving dark bulbs doh!