Thursday
Mar222012
by 
Bishop Hill
Bishop Hill Thought for the day
Mar 22, 2012 Books Climate: HSI As we know, Mann doesn't mention The Hockey Stick Illusion in his new book. Is it a surprise that none of the reviews of his book have mentioned it either?
Reader Comments (88)
Andy Scrase:
Realclimate had a long review of THSI, with 600 comments.
Googling THSI+review, the only non-absurd review in the UK non-specialist press I could find was Ridley in Prospect Magazine. Were there any others?
The normal procedure on serious book review pages is to review together books with different points of view on the same subject. I can’t recall this ever happening on AGW.
geoffchambers
There's a link to the right called 'Read the reviews'
The term "Shut-eyed denial" was coined on Climate Audit with respect to HSI and The Team's reaction to it.
Mar 22, 2012 at 2:30 PM | The Leopard In The Basement
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ELIZA has almost no intelligence whatsoever, only tricks like string substitution and canned responses based on keywords.
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Frank is Eliza ?
Frank = Russell = Eliza ?
each sceptic web-site has a designated attack-troll. Tallbloke got the farcically stupid Jeremy Bowers. WUWT has got Hugh Pepper; it seems that Tobis and Connolley no longer dare to comment there since they got their arses bitten off.. Bishop got Hengist etc.The ludicrous trolls such as BBD and Frank o'Dwyer have retreated to sites where they can commune with coelacanths and other creatures of similar intellectual attainment.
perhaps I am too literal but I find it astonishing that Russell would think that THSI could have been reviewed 200 years before it was written. Especially since the critique that is given in the book is totally factual and not grounded in questions to do with whether reality stops once you fall asleep. Perhaps Russell thinks he is making a point. Perhaps Russell thinks he possesses a mind, but then hume would ask him to consider why he believes that.
Here is a tough question. How would a Bishop-Hill warrior approach an "enemy" site?
A) Throw a hand grenade and watch what happens?
B) Annoy the regulars regularly, with knowledge and wit ... or just barb them?
C) Avoid a confrontation (and feel superior)?
I am for C, but A can be fun.
Of course Michael Mann has read THSI, at least in the Gleickian way of reviewing a book
harold
A - gets you banned - the consensus will not stand for dissent of any kind
B - you will undergo massivem relentless, attack from Dhogaza, mashey, hank Roberts, jeremy bowers, etc etc....wityh no arguments being worthwhile addressing
C - send in a quote ...wonder if it will make it...and feed the mindless trolls. When Adelady reads this, she will no doubt recognise her favourite meme - "troll-chumming"
I don't think Hengist is a troll. Firstly he has no science. Secondly he is too bright not to realise that the grey heads like me who consistently point out that the 'consensus' is based on four major scientific errors may well be telling the truth.
Indeed if you look at recent theoretical developments beyond Planck to explain why the 'back radiation' idea is bunkum, and people like Spencer being openly sarcastic about the climate science cargo cult, the likes of Hengist are the people to cultivate because someone has to tell the lefty idiots in the civil service etc. that they have been conned.
Perhaps there was some hyperbole but , as I told McIntyre's son,who had not read the book, you and Steve basically saved Western civilization. Congrats.
Hengvist, Russell and Frank are human, avoid them or engage with them.
I agree with Mpalmer,
and Ross
@Frank
If you actually knew anything about the thoughts of David Hume, or about philosophy, or about science, then you would know how ridiculous it is to use that quotation that way.
What Hume is criticizing is about the opposite of most "skeptics" of CAGW. Hume is criticizing mentalities like yours as you rage irrationally against any challenge to your worldview.
You can't just sift through the history of thought until you find one word or phrase as a handy hook on which to hang your point. wait, did you have a point?
I actually miss BBD, offensive as he could be, for he actually engaged in substantive debates. So far as I've seen Frank, Hengist, and Russell are merely cheap-shot hit-and-run artists who don't believe in reasoned discussions.
C'mon, Frank-Russell-Hengist, can any of you engage in a real discussion?
You will find plenty of takers here if you ever want to analyze evidence and arguments....
which one did you meet?
Mar 22, 2012 at 6:58 PM | Russell
Why are you quoting Hume on "brutal scepticism?'" As the adjective suggests, it is not genuine scepticism. Hume was the genius of scientific scepticism. Can you state his argument that any inference from past events to future events must necessarily rest on a circular argument? It is found in Hume's "Inquiry Concerning Human Understanding."
diogenes (10:37 PM)
I disagree with your characterisation of BBD as a troll. He put forward many relevant papers, which clearly he comprehended, and I learned much from him and his references. In particular, I thought him particularly incisive when discussing energy policy. It is unfortunate that his conversations had an unfortunate tendency to degenerate into name-calling and dredging up old grievances, but there was provocation on all sides.
.
Trolls, on the other hand, tend to bring only personal attacks and pre-packaged talking points. Although occasionally they can be helpful as some posters here (& at other sites) can go beyond fair comment when people get too exercised, and some reining in is justified.
mann & his "hockey stick" book features up top of this ridiculous new website, which partners with:
"The partners are The Atlantic, Center for Investigative Reporting, Grist, The Guardian, Mother Jones, Slate, Wired, and PBS's Need To Know." the James West who has set up this site with Foundation funding is James West, formerly of ABC Australia, who i heard talking climate rubbish on ABC radio last nite:
ClimateDesk.org:
http://climatedesk.org/
"On Dennis Miller’s radio show Thursday Lord Christopher Monckton, a former policy adviser to British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher and an activist against global warming “alarmism,” went all-in on questioning President Barack Obama’s citizenship.
"... the 3rd Viscount Monckton of Brenchley hinted about his position on the issue in April 2010 at a tea party rally on the National Mall near the White House.
But on Miller’s show, he said the birth certificate issue was far more important that combatting so-called anthropogenic global warming.
“I mean, hey you got a president who has a false birth certificate on the Internet, on the White House website,” Monckton said. “It’s not even clear where he was born...
"... Miller protested by saying he disagreed with the suggestion that Obama has a fraudulent birth certificate. But Monckton dug in his heels.
“I don’t know whether he is Kenyan or not,” Monckton said.
“The point is that if I were you, I would want to make absolutely sure that he was born here before allowing him to be elected. And the birth certificate that he put up on that website, I don’t know where he was born. But I do know that birth certificate isn’t genuine.”
Monckton firmly asserted that the birth certificate on the White House website wasn’t real, and claimed it could be dismantled with software.
“It appears in layers on the screen in such a way you can remove quite separately each of the individual dates,”
Monckton said.
“You use Adobe Illustrator and each of the individual dates is in its own separate layer. This thing has been fabricated. Sheriff [Joe] Arpaio of Arizona has had a team on this for six months. And he has now gone public and said there’s something very desperately wrong with this and of course nobody is saying anything because the entire electorate has been fooled.”
“... I haven’t a clue where Obama was born and I wouldn’t want to entreat into the private grief behind investigating. But the point is, is what he has done on the White House website is he has put up a document which he is plainly a forgery and I would regard that as a very serious matter.”
http://dailycaller.com/2012/03/22/lord-monckton-im-no-birther-but-obama-birth-certificate-plainly-a-forgery/
VJ, hot stuff, indeed. I believe Obama was born in Hawaii, but I also believe he has been an Indonesian citizen. The 18 Century meaning of 'natural born citizen' was one born natively of two citizens. Obama's father, the one this wise son knew, was a British citizen.
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It would be disaster for Mr. Mann to point out a book which deconstructs the hockeystick in simple easy to understand language readily understood by the layperson. Steve Mc's efforts (and McKitrick's) were brilliant but it took a Andrew to put his work into a form that non-specialists could readily see the the misuse of statistical analysis to give the desired weighting to the desired proxies.
There is no doubt in my mind that once the current hysteria passes, and it will, Mr. Mann will be called to account for his part in whipping up the hysteria. Like all those involved in this charade he pays no attention to his own carbon footprint, holidaying in Hawaii etc. which should indicate to any reasonable person that he doesn't much believe in AGW himself.
Bish, has BBD been banned? Shame if he has because he did at least bring intelligence and knowledge to these threads.
VJ, there are some things that just aren't worth wasting time on, and Obama's birth place is one of them. He has been president for four years, will probably get another term due to the stunning lack of charisma in the GOP's candidates. He seem's an affable type, is pretty ineffective and, by and large, incompetent president, just like George W before him. The only difference I can see is that he's as one with all the right-on views of the day. If we find out that he's a Kenyan, Indonesian, or, given his recent conversion to the "special relationship" British, it won't make an iota of difference to what he's done as president. Monckton should not be wading in these waters, nor should we be supporting him for doing so.
harold
I'm sure Hengist is human I have seen more examples of his stuff but going from Russell anfd Frank on this thread I say they are operating like bots and have not "engaged" anyone. Frank has a cleverer algorithm by asking people to google his insult so we could eventually find it and be shocked by its force, but it is something that can easily programmed ;)
I would like some more material to work with from Frank and Russell so I can be sure, that is why I have asked their opinion on Manns's book. If they respond with things like "it is very thick" or "it is made of paper" then my suspicions will remain. :)
BTW harold Thanks for the "commands", A) B) or C) - either/or, you are clearly human you always assume that the people you engage with can only pick from a constrained list of options ;)
Leopard, I was answering my own question. ;)
http://xkcd.com/386/
"I'm sure Hengist is human"
I'm not!
:-)
The Old Hat Monckton jumps the shark.
He is an embarrassment and a liability to CAGW skepticism. I wouldn't buy honey from that crank.
There I said it. Anyone has a problem with me having a problem with that roving eccentric birther?
sHx: "The Old Hat Monckton jumps the shark."
Relative to Obama, I am with you all the way, sHx.
Why go a bridge too far?
Having established an enviable reputation countering CAGW; lorded (2nd time?) for the destruction of cant and humbug; admired for the style -- even showmanship -- in bringing the fraud to members of the public who may otherwise have missed what is being perpetrated upon both our lifestyles and our lucre; why... why go senile on an old story already threadbare from over use and invite ridicule and the destruction of a noble quest?
Shx has reacted in a negative manner. I have, too.
The Obama story is a sideshow. I do not care about it.
CAGW is a serious threat to us all.
Go back, Lord Monkton. Claim a nasty blow to the head from a fall. Save some semblance of your authority; because we need you out there.
Lord Monckton for all his eccentricity has been a pretty reliable guide to the climate change debate.
On the strength of that, if he is prepared to declare the Obama birth certificate a forgery, then I am prepared to consider that a possibility worth the trouble of examining.
Nicholas Hallam: "...Obama birth certificate a forgery, then I am prepared to consider that a possibility worth the trouble of examining."
This "certificate" has a history on the web going back two or three years, Nicholas. Everything you always wanted to know and didn't like to ask. It truly is another world unrelated to CAGW, and mixed in by Monckton will only serve to dilute.
Roger, I am given to moments of credulity when coming across surprising views of people for whom I have respect. Yesterday I fell for the flying man on the basis that Lubos Motl found it credible.
If Monckton were interested only in the climate change debate, he would avoid stumbling into other unrelated areas. As it is, he is a glorious contrarian, prepared to challenge the consensus on pretty well anything you can name. I commend. him for his independence of thought
sHx
Totally agree with you about Monckton. I know he is human but his sesquipedalian posing puts me right off engaging with anything he says.
Nicholas; you note: "I commend. him for his independence of thought." and I can agree with that and endorse it. My concern here is that Monckton appears to be coming very new to an old story, and to compound that is mixing it in with his sterling efforts to debunk CAGW.
I can afford to believe in fairies and no one even notices because I am no one. Monkton has not got that luxury.
p.s. I watched the flying birdman vid only a couple hours ago. Wow! I wish... I wish...
Monckton, a free man, an independent thinker, an accomplished speaker and debater, and a very widely read scholar in climate science who has demonstrated mathematical skills in his own analyses. What's not to like?
I also enjoy the way he often has a big bright bejewelled crown on his Powerpoint slides, sometimes with the Westminster portcullis beside it to boot. It must surely drive any already demented lefties viewing his presentations quite over the brink. I conclude he has a mischievous sense of humour, as well as pride in his title and connections.
@The Leopard In The Basement
"sesquipedalian"
There goes another word into my vocabulary. Pity it is so syllableous. :)
sHx
I loved the irony of indulging in sesquipedalian posing by using the phrase "sesquipedalian posing" :)
Mike Hulme mentions HSI in his Nature Climate Change review of Mann's book.
http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.ca/2012/03/nature-reviews-michael-manns-book-as.html