Bishop Hill Really desperate times
Dec 13, 2012 Energy: gas With ministers expected to annouce a go-ahead for Cuadrilla today, the green movement is in overdrive, wailing and gnashing their teeth. Fiona Harvey gets her retaliation in first:
Household energy bills will be about £600 higher per year by the end of the decade if the UK relies increasingly on gas, the government's climate advisers warned on Thursday.
But the Committee on Climate Change found that bills would only be £100 higher than today's average dual fuel bill of about £1,300, if the country concentrated on renewable power generation, such as wind power.
The CCC estimates use the DECC assumption that wholesale gas prices will rise by 27% and that gas will continue to be loaded with extra costs. Given that Poyry are now saying that exploiting the Bowland Shale alone will reduce gas prices by 2-4% (a figure that is likely to be on the low side), I would say Ms Harvey is a bit behind the times.
Funny that.
Bishop Hill
Ed Davey's statement is here. It is important to note that the government has authorised exploration, not production.
Reader Comments (102)
The CCC estimates pdf is a very interesting document. They accounted for 2010 being exceptionally cold and in doing so forecast that doing nowt more than is already happening gas bills specifically will go up by... £10 by 2020. This is due to the starting point being unusual plus factoring in higher gas prices and greater efficiency leading to reduced consumption overall.
Figure A1 in Annexe 2 is likewise interesting. It illustrates future energy bills under three different gas price scenarios and with and without further eco-measures for each. Note that in all projections, even those for low gas prices that see bills drop by 2020, the coloured bands for the cost of renewables/CCS and carbon prices both increase significantly.
"Household energy bills will be about £600 higher per year by the end of the decade if the UK relies increasingly on gas, the government's climate advisers warned on Thursday."
I can not see how this can be true - examination of the UK's energy statistics (DUKES) reveals that our power stations consumed ~ 77 mtoe (million tonnes oil equivalent) of fuel in the last annual reporting period. The contribution to this made by our entire wind infrastructure was vanishingly small. This strongly suggests that a five fold expansion of wind energy to 30GW as proposed will still leave consumers exposed to a large proportion of future increases in the price of fossil fuel. I would like Ms Harvey to justify her statement in relation to real world data.
BBC had a good interview with Cuadrilla CEO just now...
Osborne has his fingerprints all over what is happening and Camoron's performance when questioned yesterday shows that he is on the same page. No matter what Davey does or says; Osborne has out thought him (not too difficult I know ^.^). Osborne had already announced that a new dept would be created to deal with the regulation of unconventional gas and oil before Davey tried to put his hurdles in the way. Forget it Davey, Osborne said the new dept would make it simple.
As someone already pointed out; the Greens can wail and gnash their teeth as much as they like but the genie is now out of the bottle and nobody but nobody can put it back.
Cuadrilla has already said that given a go ahead it could be producing by March next year. Flow rate info can come fast now they can frack so I really think the whole fracking thing will snowball once the government sees what is available.
"the whole fracking thing will snowball"
Good choice of phrase, Dung. I notice that UK consumption was very close to 60GW around teatime yesterday, and that wind has been below 1GW for two days now. A few brownouts (and loss of Internet) would put DECC in an uncomfortably bright spotlight, if only metaphorically...
James P
Interesting non coincidental fact that two cold days accompany two days of little wind to be followed (if the met office got it right ^.^) by two days of high wind with much higher temperatures.
BBC 5 live at lunchtime interviewed Bob Ward for several minutes unopposed. Naturally Bob was less than chuffed at the fracking development.
The presenter then said she'd read out a 'few of your texts that have come in'.....before stringing off 4 anti-fracking messages in a row, with not a single pro-fracking text to compare to.
Biased BBC strikes again.
For all you BBC watchers I can tell you that SKY News coverage is at least as hostile to fracking as the Beeb.
There was an interesting confrontation on Daily Politics, between Caroline Lucas (certifiable, surely) and John Hayes. At one point an amused director changed shot to John Hayes for a second, catching him rolling his eyes as Ms Lucas spouted another "truth".
Ms Lucas repeatedly mentioned Germany's green credentials, including 25% renewables. I kept shouting at the screen: "Somebody please mention their new coal-fired stations". Eventually, Hayes did get round to it, provoking an interesting question from Andrew Neil - "if Germany can build new, BROWN COAL power stations, why is the EU making us shut ours down?" Ms Lucas kept her head down; John Hayes admitted he didn't know, but would find out and report back. Watch this space?
It is reassuring indeed to find that our government energy minister does not know why Germany can build 25 new coal fired power stations when we are shutting down our own. Government policy on frontal lobotomy for all ministerial posts is proving controversial.
'Fracking' is forever linked with the word 'contoversial'..
Supposing, in 2012, the government suddenly decided to start sending men underground to dig for coal, with all the safety implications of that.
Supposing, in 2012, the government suddenly decided to allow any adult (over 16), untrained, unsupervised, to stick a nozzle in a vehicle and fill it with one of the most volatile liquids known to man.
Can you imagine the outcry..?
The fact is that the 'greens' are spitting feathers because shale gas wasn't on their radar. They envisaged continuous and ferocious lobbying of the government with the intention of creating some sort of post-industrial nirvana where we sat around hand-knitting Union Jack scarves, while such electricity as was allowed was generated by wind turbines powered by fairy breath...
Fiona Harvey isn't just behind, she's got her numbers completely wrong.
The report doesnt say bills will be £600 by higher by the end of the decade, it says
Is Fiona Harvey dishonest, or just very stupid?
The Guardian page has been modified to say "will be about £600 higher per year in the coming decades" but that is still a gross misrepresentation of what the report says.
The new report being referred to is NOT the one in the Bish's link.
The CCC seems to have done a good job of hiding it, but it is at
http://hmccc.s3.amazonaws.com/ENERGYbill12/1672_CCC_Energy-Bills_bookmarked.pdf
Here's a thing.
'UK government announces the building of 20 new coal fired power stations.'
Precisely - as mentioned above. If Germany can do it - why can't we..?
(The reason Germany is doing it, of course, is that wind turbines won't keep the Audis, BMWs and Mercs rolling out of the factories - and Merkel - in a knee-jerk after the tsunami in Japan - has shut their nukes..)
I don't understand the jubilation at the prospects of cheap gas.
We have it on very good authority that winters are now so warm we won't need gas anyway:
http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/snowfalls-are-now-just-a-thing-of-the-past-724017.html
"Is Fiona Harvey dishonest, or just very stupid?"
Why - are they mutually exclusive..?
:-)
John Barrett; 'What is this obsession with using gas for electricity?' The answer is that using windmills with CCGT standby, most if not all electricity is from methane. This is because variability of windmill output [cube of wind speed] reduces CCGT efficiency dramatically. In other words, the windmills can save no gas use in a grid like ours.
This information is just starting to permeate Davey and Lucas' thick skulls. Thus we also had today arch-eugenicist Porritt who allegedly programmed Davey stating the same message; 'fraccing doesn't reduce gas costs' and will reduce the number of green jobs. Lucas on 'The Daily Politics' even claimed it would all be exported and was left speechless when Andrew Neilll said 'but there are no pipes to do it'. These people have absolutely no engineering knowledge.
So, what we really have is the greens aka Eugenicists using the windmills to reduce employment, competitiveness and population. What they had also not realised is that with no CO2-AGW, the new Llttle Ice Age will make fuel poverty do that job too fast for the population not to notice the effects. No doubt Cameron has realised that his premiership would have been recognised as an absolute disaster if he had not taken the shale gas opportunity which will produce real jobs in high unemployment areas, not sham green jobs making glass fibre windmill sails.
Leo Hickman’s two-tier “Officers and Other Ranks” thread at the Guardian is very weird. You can put the comments in chronological order or the reverse, but however you do it, Leo and his friends still come out on top. Trust the Guardian to invent the internet equivalent of the first class carriage.
At 12.34pm he’s got some very interesting tweets from Lynas, Black, Monbiot, Ridley etc.
I just read the report linked in the update posted by his grace :(
We are all jumping the gun:
and
If Davey really holds things up for "some years" Cuadrilla will be long gone. This will end up being a battle between Osborne and Davey ---> Conservatives and Lib Dumbs, interesting that will be.
One stupidity in all this effort to make sure it is safe is that all the potential dangers exist in the fracking stage and these will be evident during exploration. Production is simply one or more pipes attached to the well and gas flowing through those pipes; how dangerous is that? If exploration is safe then production is safe.
DECC are really trying to be deliberately obstructive - it looks quite spiteful and willful from here.
The setting of the "seismic red traffic light" at magnitude 0.5 is the clue.
After this is exceeded (inevitable) - no doubt the goons at DECC will call an EMERGENCY SHUTDOWN! - which will trigger a spasm of reports and powerpointing and meetings and consultations which they will undoubtedly spin out indefinitely given the opportunity...
Then they'll insist on stopping all road traffic within an arbitrary distance of the site so they can hear better and anything else they can dream up.
The technology exists to at least partially image the seismic activity of the frac process in 3D - but I see no mention of that anywhere.
They are also proposing a "well examiner" - like the bloke walking in front of a horseless carriage with a red flag....
Alarmism and bloody minded obstructiveness on a stick.
@Paul Matthews
Is Fiona Harvey dishonest, or just very stupid?
--------------
We're seeing the great green supertanker colliding with the rocks of reality, and naturally some bits of it will be be bent into all sorts of strange shapes as they attempt to go in two directions at the same time.
Fiona Harvey is an extra doing what the extras have been encouraged to do. She's doing what she thinks is her job and she was probably chosen for being sympathetic to an agenda rather than any other qualification.
Generally, we have a government fully committed to tackling climate change, legislation and departments set up to promote it, and the sinister business of NGOs financed by the government to pressure it in this direction on policy. It's all colliding with reality, but it can't just stop. Of course the bits which have been set up and given incentives to push CAGW will continue doing that until they can't.
The full ccc report is now available on their website, though it wasn't an hour ago.
http://www.theccc.org.uk/reports/energy-prices-and-bills-2012
Guess how many times the word 'fracking' appears in the 60-page report.
The tragedy here is that the country needs the jobs today not in some years, it needs the balance of payments bonus today not in some years and it needs the growth right now not in some years. Cuadrilla is not going to employ thousands of people until they get the green light for production not just exploration. I really hope Osborne has his finger on this pulse because it is a huge moment in our economic life.
"Controversial 'fracking' to resume in search for shale gas but ministers promise tougher rules to prevent earthquakes"
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2247421/Fracking-resume-search-shale-gas-Ed-Davey-promises-tougher-rules-prevent-earthquakes.html
We could sell this legal technology to the Japanese, Indonesians and the west coast of the USA.
Mark Lynas at
The Government has injected some common sense deep into the debate, throwing cold water over the hot air coming from DECC, and the great green greasy coalition is coming apart at the seams. The gas is seeping out of the global warming balloon.http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2012/dec/13/fracking-shale-gas
(I’m collecting metaphors that BH can copyright, ready for when the MSM catches up with the siginificance of this).
The Committee on Climate Change is a proxy for carbon traders like Deutsche Bank, raided by 500 people to get evidence concerning an allegedly massive carbon trading fraud up to VP level: http://notrickszone.com/2012/12/12/500-german-authorities-raid-deutsche-bank-amid-alleged-tax-evasion-scam-surrounding-co2-certificate-trading/
This is why DECC is not interested in saving CO2 emissions, just putting in the windmills to pay back the Mafia and the banks who put Brown and Blair in power with Cameron and Clegg to follow.
Dec 13, 2012 at 2:50 PM | geoffchambers
Thanks for the link. The comments are worth reading: it's amazing (to me anyway) that those in favour of shale are, by far, the most recommended. And this is the Guardian! What's happening?
Reading Davey's long missive on fracking is sleep-inducing. The impression given is that he belileves his most important responsibility is to pour water on any fires of enthusiasm that arise from published data, projections, and opinions on fracking. ("There will be no optimistic conjecture under my reign!") And that he will use any means possible to slow down its growth into a viable (and valuable) industry.
Advice to Davey: Get on with it, man.
I repeat what I said the other night.
I admit this quote comes from 'wiki.answers.com' but I'm sure somebody can find a more authoritative source. Wikipedia itself describes quakes of magnitude less than 2.0 as 'micro' with the comment that these are "not felt, or felt rarely by sensitive people" and that they occur continually with several million a year.Time for a major letter-writing campaign. To the press, to MPs, to anyone who will listen.
This isn't the "science of global warming" we're talking about here; this is the future prosperity (or otherwise) of the United Kingdom and a Government Department headed (apparently) by an environmentalist and stuffed full (apparently) of activist civil servants is doing its level best to ensure that the answer will be "or not".
The link which coldoldman gave identifies 12 quakes of magnitude 1.0 or greater in the UK since October 27, the most recent being at Spean Bridge the day before yesterday. I think we would have heard if the Commando Memorial had toppled over!
There is no indication at all in the reports of any damage caused by these quakes or that (with the exception of Patterdale at the end of November) anyone even noticed.
If we are not to allow the eco-fascists (and I am using that word quite deliberately) to jeopardise the success of this operation then someone needs to get out into Lancashire and (if it is possible) record every 0.5 strength tremor starting now while at the same time making clear to anyone who will listen just how ludicrous is this threshold and how evident it is that it has been selected as one which nature and the haulage industry breach on a daily basis and therefore which Cuadrilla will fall foul of the first time a lorry crashes on the M6 or goes over one of Lancashire County Council's road humps (I assume LCC have road humps).
I also said the other day that the time was approaching when we needed to "decouple" global warming from energy use and I think that time has now arrived.
This is not a question of whether CO2 is the main driver of AGW or even whether at the moment there is any AGW.
This is a straight fight between those who want to see Britain prosperous and economically healthy and our grandchildren well-off enough to have some chance of coping with the unknown problems, including the possibility of global warming or global cooling, which they will face as every generation before them has done and those who don't care a fig for Britain's economic prosperity or future generations (though they always claim that is just about all they think about) and are prepared actively to work for the destruction of the country's wealth and the welfare of its people.
@ the Duke.
Advice to Cameron. Give Mr Davey the opportunity to spend more time with his family.
Robin Guenier 4.13PM
What’s happening is that the Green Movement is coming apart at the seams. By suppressing the debate about CAGW, the mainstream media have ensured that the fissure between green fundamentalism and sanity surfaces elsewhere - in this case right down the middle of the environmental movement, provoking a serious Graun injury.
I’m hoping to start a thread on the Discussion page which will monitor media reaction, as opposed to the technical and economic discussion which takes place here.
Mike Jackson’s proposal at 4.25 is an excellent one.
Listened to Any Questions on Radio 4 last week. The amazing "consensus" was that renewables are the cheapest solution in the long run. As long as they keep that fairy tale up and people applaud them, what hope is there for sanity to win through?
GOM
I don't think Cameron has that choice.
One of the drawbacks to coalitions is that the tail is allowed to wag a wee bit (though to be fair this one tends to wag more of the dog than it's entitled to, in my opinion).
Cameron's big mistake (number 476!) was to let the Lib-Dems loose on the DECC. As soon as I saw the name Huhne I debated whether to go out and shoot myself. But I didn't reckon he could do much damage in the two months before I left for France so I decided not to.
Putting a Lib-Dem in charge of that of all departments really was tantamount to giving a child a machine-gun.
The continued description of the seismic events at the Cuadrilla site as earthquakes is disingenuous at best and to my mind a willful distortion intended to spread FUD.
The seismic events nearby are tremors.
Now, after reading Davey's statement several times - there is clear irrational bias targeted at making it as difficult as possible to proceed.
An army of nitpicking jobsworths is being lined up to serially put sticks through the spokes of unconventional gas extraction in the UK. The constantly shifting anti fracker's activist bible is obviously informing DECC strategy. It's notable that there's the inferred threat that The Environment Agency will strangle any required water supply via licences, water treatment conditions and waste disposal arrangements. This is something that I have direct personal experience of in a 3 year struggle with The Environment Agency over water licences - where they lied, delayed, broke laws, withheld information, lost at High Court and even after all that they still withheld cooperation and ... the licences - without explanation - because they could...... they are not to be trusted.
Davey's statement is progress of a sort - but there's still much scope for hobbling/nobbling/obstructing shale gas.
Grumpy Old Man
Dont be so timid ^.^ Advice to Camoron should be:
Ditch the Coalition because it is no longer in the national interest.
Give us an in/out referendum on the EU and call an election.
Oh yes: best be nice to UKIP :)
WRT ‘earthquakes’, I surmise that almost no-one in DECC could describe what a logarithmic scale means.
Love to see the extreme greens subjected to a Fracking Enema. The visual imagination is delightful, shades of the 10:10 debacle.
jamesp at 5:12 PM
or even quantifying seismic events :-p - something that the pros have difficulty with - the real world detail seismic mechanics and physics can be complex and the scope for misinterpretation is considerable - especially when indulging in policy based evidence making.
If unconventional gas is to progress somebody's got to get a grip and actually threaten that official perpetrators of deliberate and unfounded delays and obstructiveness can expect their careers curtailed and pension entitlements truncated - and in the worst cases - it's my view that they should be held to account via the existing laws of the land under The Civil,Servant's Code of Conduct as enshrined in section 5 (5) of the Constitutional Reform and Governance Act 2010 and spend some time enjoying organic HMP porridge at considerably less cost to the taxpayer than they would cause if they were still in post :-)
edit: it seems that there are some fans of the EPA / Al Armendariz approach inside DECC
It should be noted that over the last 24 hours our subsidy farmers have managed, with some 4000 wind turbines, to kick out 2% of our needs. Back of the envelope would suggest that we would need 45x more subsidy machines (180,000) to have any chance of meeting demand.
Given that 'wind' is probably the most 'viable' of the 'renewable' energy sources being promoted - 45x the current stock is one hell of a hit on subsidy bills.
Do I get the impression that HMG are just realising that allowing FoE to dictate energy policy might have been a mistake? Time to let the adults have a go perhaps?
Regardless of the future of UK gas - there is no way that 'renewables' can be anything more than a 'museum piece' to show the children twenty years hence.
Truth is that, as reality bites, there is little appetite for the 'food or fuel' green Utopia. Time the 'greens' were exposed for the murdering b(self snip)ds they have always been. They may have killed from a distance but they have been playing with 'pro's' and I'm sure our (brighter) politicians are already working out how to transfer the 'blood on the hands' back to its rightful owners.
Given that they are all coming out of the woodwork for 'Shale' - easy to identify them when we build the scaffold in Whitehall.
geoffchambers:
I always like to read comments by Geoff and this is comedy gold!
tomo
I think our one consolation may be that the EA comes under DEFRA and if there is a minister around at the moment to grab Sir Humphrey (metaphorically, of course) by the lapels and say, "look! just bloody sort it!" it's Paterson.
There is hope.
But the final victory will be to those who work for it. The more we sit and complain about the opposition and their tactics the further down the road that victory retreats.
Hmm...I think Owen Patterson has his work cut out...Members of the last few administrations have been heard to mutter (mostly privately) about the levers of power being disconnected - hence, I believe - the 2010 Act I linked to above - which Sir Humphrey and pals have been trying to row out into the middle of the lake in the wee hours and weight down before pushing it over the side.....
The arrogance and power drunkenness of the "executive" (and particularly their middle management minions) has reached epic proportions and my experience indicates that they seen no reason to moderate their behavior - since they are masters of the universe and untouchable.
Davey's statement was obviously penned for him and his delivery is only marginally better than Sweep the Superdog and has all hallmarks of deliberate officious obstructiveness that are all too familiar from my dealings with The Environment Agency.
I am not sitting back and moaning at all The 2010 Act is possible Kryptonite for DECC eco-loons etc. and I intend to crack the lead lined box lid open and observe the effect.
tomo
I wasn't directing the comment at any individual; just making a general observation.
Authorized only for exploration? for a Shale Gas Play ????
Here is the deal when it comes to a Shale Gas play. You know basically where the rock is. The risk and uncertainty is in engineering the frack plan and the resulting ultimate volumes per well you get from it.
You can only evaluate the well and play --- by PRODUCING IT!
This is not like appraisal to justify the building of a mulit-million dollar offshore platform. Drill and produce on an exploratory basis. As you establish the sweet spots of the formation and the tune the fracking jobs, you establish the size of the play.
Mike Jackson
yep... sorry, I have a hair trigger when it comes to delinquent bureaucrats.
Maybe I should get treatment :-)
Although I have to say that it's my belief that nothing will really move until there are a number of Admiral Byng moments.
The rot is deep.
tomo
A major fault in the theory of anger management seems to be the lack of attention to the causes of anger. If you get angry its your fault and you need therapy!
Methinks the coalition government may need to invest billions in anger management treatment if they do not get their fingers out.
I have, in the last few minutes, tip-toed over to the Graun to see what Damian Carrington is currently on about. He, and many of his sycophants who comment there appear to be card-carrying lunatics desperately trying to pretend that their days of running the asylum are not coming rapidly to an end. Their collective understanding of science, engineering, economics and other subject areas appears to be at the level of children who believe in magic and in fairies but have to yet come to grips with the real world.
Shouting silliness at the world, as they do, does not advance the cause of Magic Green by one iota.
tomo
"deliberate and unfounded delays and obstructiveness"
I think they might found themselves stampeded by the public if the lights (and computers) start going out. I assume that prospect is largely responsible for the recent changes of heart re. fracking and nuclear.
Good piece today by Andrew Orlowski here.
jamesp
In my experience, there are few in the executive who have any real perspective and those that do (and they are definitely there) tend to keep schtum about "difficult ishoos" because to publicly acknowledge that the state isn't infinitely powerful and it's employees aren't omniscient and have connived to place themselves beyond accountability for their unjust and criminal acts is highly effective career suicide.
In the grudging shuffle towards effectively engineered solutions to engineering problems there is an element of self interest / self preservation. I think the dullards have started to pay attention - but there's a long way to go yet.
What grates so massively for me is that if "they" actually engaged and thought for themselves rather than busy themselves embroidering received wisdom the world would be a more positive and better place and they wouldn't have to lie, cheat, shout down well founded criticism and waste so much of the wealth that they are entrusted with by the public.
But I suppose it's been going on since the year dot and it's just satisfying to rein them in from time to time.
Mike Jackson
Completely agree about separating Energy and Climate Change and I would lay a bet that is what Osborne has in mind. Giving Climate Change to Davey solves the Lib Dem problem and giving Energy to Patterson will give us secure, efficient and cheap energy. Renewables can then stand on their own merits (ie adios muchachos).