I read RV Jones when I was a teenager and was greatly impressed by the story. I don't think he was a shy retiring sort of guy and could hold his own with the big political hitters of his day, But I'm not sure that he'd have been an easy guy to work with...more a Stormin' Norman than a Colin Powell....pretty fearsome - physically an intellectually.
But while we are busy setting up our own rival to Richard and judy, can I recommend
'Future Babble' by Dan Gardner.
A veyr inetersting psychological/evolutionary look at how and why we all make predictions . and why they tend to be wrong. Though climate science recieves only peripheral direct attention, many of his conclusions are sot on. To pick just one to illustrate:
He has made the distinction between 'foxes' who know many things and hdegehogs who ujust knwo one thing
' 'Maybe is fine with foxes.
But not with hedgehogs. They find compexit amd uncertainty unacceptable. They ant simple and certain answers. an dthey are sure they can get there using the One Big Idea that drives their thinking. With this mindset, teh hedgehog's greater knoweldge doesn't challenge the psychologcal biases we are all prone to.......(E)xpertise boosts the hedgehog's ability to see patterns that aren't there and and to deal with contradictiry evidence by rationalising it away or twistign it so it supports what the hedgehog believes. In this way teh hedgehog...gets an answer that is clear, simple and wrong.
Good stuff. I think we can identify a few hedgehogs......
Reader Comments (51)
I read RV Jones when I was a teenager and was greatly impressed by the story. I don't think he was a shy retiring sort of guy and could hold his own with the big political hitters of his day, But I'm not sure that he'd have been an easy guy to work with...more a Stormin' Norman than a Colin Powell....pretty fearsome - physically an intellectually.
But while we are busy setting up our own rival to Richard and judy, can I recommend
'Future Babble' by Dan Gardner.
A veyr inetersting psychological/evolutionary look at how and why we all make predictions . and why they tend to be wrong. Though climate science recieves only peripheral direct attention, many of his conclusions are sot on. To pick just one to illustrate:
He has made the distinction between 'foxes' who know many things and hdegehogs who ujust knwo one thing
' 'Maybe is fine with foxes.
But not with hedgehogs. They find compexit amd uncertainty unacceptable. They ant simple and certain answers. an dthey are sure they can get there using the One Big Idea that drives their thinking. With this mindset, teh hedgehog's greater knoweldge doesn't challenge the psychologcal biases we are all prone to.......(E)xpertise boosts the hedgehog's ability to see patterns that aren't there and and to deal with contradictiry evidence by rationalising it away or twistign it so it supports what the hedgehog believes. In this way teh hedgehog...gets an answer that is clear, simple and wrong.
Good stuff. I think we can identify a few hedgehogs......