Bishop Hill Norfolk Police speak
Dec 24, 2010 Climate: CRU Climate Change Dispatch has extracted a statement on the progress of Norfolk Constabulary's investigation into the Climategate:
Following the publication of e-mails and other data prior to the COP15 Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen in December 2009, the Norfolk Constabulary investigation into the data breach at the University of East Anglia continues.
With the many different lines of enquiry that officers identified, the workload has varied with specialist investigators/law enforcement partners used when needed.
Commenting on the investigation, Senior Investigating Officer (SIO), Detective Superintendent Julian Gregory said:
“This has been a complex investigation, undertaken in a global context and requiring detailed and time consuming lines of enquiry. Due to the sensitivity of the investigation it has not been possible to share details of enquiries with the media and the public and it would be inappropriate for us to comment any further at this time.”
Note to Editors:
It is acknowledged that interest in this case continues, given that the enquiry has now been running for approximately a year and that there is a desire for us to publish further detail. However, the circumstances of the case do not lend themselves to public comment at this time due to the sensitivities of the investigation and this is unlikely to change in the near future.”
Reader Comments (137)
My guess is that they know who did it and so do UEA. But UEA do not want to press charges as the ensuing case would mean an embarassing public trashing of what CRU and their pals call "ordinary robust and forthright scientific debate" (paraphrased with licence from memory):
http://www.cce-review.org/pdf/MR%20Launch%20intro.pdf
Merry Christmas to all - keep warm!! :-)
Norfolk policespeak, more like.
Re Tom
I can imagine how frustrating that must be after putting effort into catching criminals. For frauds, politics seems to triumph over prosecuting and continual re-orgs of specialist crime units & budget cuts probably doesn't help either. Probably rich pickings still in the carbon market given current frauds, and the theft combined with lax or non-existent registration requirements makes that look ideal for money laundering.
I get the feeling political pressure has been applied to keep the case going and keep the data safe from subsequent FOI or EIR requests though, but the delay is becoming embarrassing. Politically, there could be some room to manouver, ie if the delay is waiting on forensics, say so because AFAIK that's still under resourced.
Personally I still think it was a leak, and probably by an FOI person with a conscience. Most of the data appears to relate to existing FOI requests which would explain the collation. I'm less certain about how the non-email data was selected though & that's had less attention than the emails. Unconvinced about a hack because from what we've learned about the backup server only a tiny portion was released.
Briffa's absence is interesting though, he's another candidate given he was stressed and under pressure and the emails show the Anglo-US relationship wasn't always that great amongst the Team. He'd also probably have easier access to RC and we only really have Gavin's word that that was a hack. As target of FOI's, he'd be in a position to assemble the responses and select those that looked most favorable to show he was initially unwilling to overstate certainty, but then pressured to present the 'tidy story' the US wanted and propping up Mann's reputation.
But I guess we'll have to wait and see
I do have to say that while talk about "the sensitivity of the investigation" could indicate a politically embarrassing inside job, or could be mostly bluff and bluster, it would also fit nicely with the idea that a foreign government was involved - especially if it was the Russians.
@ BBD & e smith - I appreciate both your perspectives. But think it is very unlikely that Jones did it, unless it was inadvertent; i.e. he collected all the incriminating emails (and Harry's notes?) he could remember that he feared would have to be released due to impending FOI requests, and then put them on a server which unknown to him had public ftp access. But I still think it was more likely that it was a sceptic within CRU who got fed up with the duplicity and scientific bankruptcy of the team. The reason I still favour the latter explanation over Jones' incompetence is his performance in the recent Swedish documentary, but my thinking is not based not on first hand knowledge, so I could be wrong.
seasons greetings to the whistleblower/s.
am sure more is known than is being told. a bit like the MSM really when it comes to the subject of CAGW,
“This has been a complex investigation, undertaken in a global context and requiring detailed and time consuming lines of enquiry. Due to the sensitivity of the investigation it has not been possible to share details of enquiries with the media and the public and it would be inappropriate for us to comment any further at this time.”
i.e.
This was such an cinch it was an embarassment to call it an investigation. Our Super has been tearing his last precious hairs out with all the top brass directives about collateral damage to strategic objectives and international diplomacy nonsense and so, regrettably, we are obliged to state that it has been declared that it is not in the public interest to share the results of this investigation with the media and the public and it would be inappropriate for us to comment any further at this time.
For all his boasting and lies about the role of WikiLeaks in first publishing the ClimateGate materials Julian Assange would not have published them first: they don't suite his "politics".
It is interesting to note the recent moves by WikiLeakers to ditch him; very sensible.
I run a small business (geoscience) and we have our own outward facing server. We recently got hacked. The first we knew of it was when our ISP telephoned us and gave us 2 hours notice to take the illegal phishing site down. It was cloning Spaniar, the budget spanish airline, and trawling for credit card numbers etc.
Tracking through how the hackers got in and uploaded their own fake website on our server was interesting. One of our staff members had set up a temporary ftp site where the login name and the pasword were the same (so another staff member could upload wedding photos, of all things!). The hacker was simply checking our IP for ftp logins on our server with the same password as the user name, guessing common names. Once they got in, they did a "more" on the /etc/passwd file and found an account where they knew there was security weakness and got in with root privilege from there.
Now why mention all this? Because after deleting the phishing site and sorting it all out I went back and checked some of the logs on the system. That then revealed that our server is actually subject to a hacking attack about once a week, almost always by brute force, usually trying repeated attempts to check the password on an account called "adminstrator" or "admin" by repeated attempts - the maximum being around 80,000 automated attempts by computer over 16 hours. In general "hackers" are trying by brute force, they don't even bother to check that we are actually a Linux system, therefore there is no "Administrator" or "Admin" account. NONE of these brute force attacks have ever succeeded.
In general you get into a system either by luck (as we were hacked) or because you already know how to get in. And in the case of CRU, I strongly suspect the data was released by someone who already had access and simply accumulated the information over time. If it was a hack, the bootprints would have been all over it (unless CRU IT is completely incompetent...but wait, surely not?). In my opinion the CRU "hack" was not, it was someone, probably ticked off, who already had access.
Atomic Hairdryer at 8:28 PM
Frustrating hardly covers it - in a sense that's only 1% of the work that went in.... the police were dealing with the icing on the cake The team were pretty disappointed - I'd planned a luvverly arrest party, press etc... . At the time I wondered (a lot!) about conspiracy etc. but on reflection - I now know that most upper-mid level provincial police officers are like Inspector Frost's boss, shuffling paper towards lucrative early retirement + the golf course and trying not to get dragged into anything contentious or "difficult" - cowardly and spineless hardly covers it.
Wandering off a bit - but corporate crime (carbon credits?) doesn't interest the police much. I'm aware of many instances of systematic speculative invoicing , I look at the utility companies deliberately pillaging OAP Direct Debits and nothing is done. Taint rite as they say down 'ere.
How to apply pressure to Norfolk Constabulary?
MPs?
Know little about FoI on plod - but might work?
IPCC - maybe - but track record is dodgy
Ridicule?
Delingpole?
Perhaps the GOT could come out of retirement and Photoshop new badge for the force - something along the lines of Inspector Gadget's Ruralshire but with a (frozen) turkey instead of a sheep.... Josh ?
Merry Christmas to all, time to motivate the reindeer for the night ahead.
woodentop
@Don Pablo - you can copy and paste web page content to a blank Word / Notepad document for that traditional black on white look.
One should use Notebook as it removes the HTML that may also be embedded. I know all about how to read reader unfriendly websites, especially those with neat backgrounds, like Celtic crosses and such.
My point is if you want to have people read what you write, make it more reader friendly. Gray on white is not. Making it a extra effort is counter productive. Particularly the older one gets, as in my case.
@Don Pablo - quite. I was concerned at you having to read something that interested you, rendered in an inconvenient format.
On a related note, I could never take seriously "adiabatic expansion" when delivered in a strong Welsh accent by my undergrad physics Professor. Try saying it in a strong Welsh accent and you'll see what I mean.
No copy and paste in those days...
@Tom
I think you pretty much nailed it in your comments earlier in the thread. Had there been an external interference, the Norfolk Carabinieri would have definitely declared that by now. A hacker's involvement would be far less controversial than a find that a leaker from within the CRU is involved.
woodentop
Try saying it in a strong Welsh accent and you'll see what I mean.
Been there, tried that. Of course there is Donegal and Belfast, but Welsh is in a class of itself. Not even Notepad will clean that up enough! I wonder if the Dragon speak and write program could cope?
Have a Merry Christmas all!
DP
You have Polish jokes, we have Irish jokes, the Irish have Kerry jokes:
What do you do if a Kerryman throws a pin at you? Run like mad- he's probably got a grenade between his teeth.
Merry Christmas
Probably few will think much of my hypothesis - because it touches a area of reality generally closed to scientists - which is a shame, because proper (ie careful, open, thorough) scientific investigation reveals that this area has a small core of real truth.
I think that, as FOIA itself said, "A miracle has happened".
I think those words were chosen deliberately, both because it was a hint that they were true, and because it was such a pertinent place for those words to appear (in a CA thread whose title uses the word "miracle").
The outcome of both the First and the Second World War would have been very different if outright miracles had not occurred at crucial moments. The First World War saw a number of incidents, mostly early on but also one later on, that are collectively referred to as the Angel of Mons. I've read expert debunking of the whole thing, and just as with Climate Science scepticism, you have to research a bit further to undo all the official debunks, but it can be done, you just need persistence, an eye for detail, and a mind that embraces both openness and commonsense. Similarly, the second World War saw a miracle at the Battle of Britain. That story is a bit harder to winkle out the details - but it can be done.
I have always viewed the corruption that happened in Climate Science as being that serious - the abandonment of Scientific Method is a threat to the whole of Science - and the cover-up of same, and the way people have simply trusted Science. I have seen outright miracles myself, direct. This includes miracles involving computers, producing onscreen, courteous, intelligent, relevant, helpful outputs like FOIA did (but not in Climate Science).
If as much money was spent investigating the content of the emails rather than the source, perhaps there would be something to report.
The 'investigations/enquiries' carried out by the various universities and politicians were a farce as they failed to question the questioners of the 'science'.
I will be eternally grateful to my parents in emigrating to Australia in 1960 as I would not wish to be suffering the 'global warming' falling on the UK at the moment.
I have no issues with our police. They carry out a necessary function; often with little thanks.
Thanks.
Perhaps, sometimes, they get their hands tied. I don't know and I don't care. Your average plod is an average guy doing the best that they can.
If politics gets in the way, and that's not peculiar to their profession, then that's life. They're grafters, not magicians!
If they get stymied by the politicians then I feel for them but what can they do?
Answer, their job and AFAIK they do a bl**dy good job.
Merry Xmas and a Happy New Year, to all.
I have no doubt that the Fuzz have a pretty good idea what happened. I have even less doubt that they will never reveal what they know (unless someone on the inside leaks it!). They would have to "find" someone else under a tree with their wrists slashed.
As a wild guess (because it is Christmas) I'm with Atomic Hairdryer - Briffa is the most likely candidate.
Woodentop said:
... "adiabatic expansion" when delivered in a strong Welsh accent ...
Thanks for that - I nearly lost a mouthful of ice cold Heineken...
The whistleblower? Oi fink it wos Briffa wot dun it.
Merry Christmas from me too. Forgot to say that at the bottom of my post, though it had just turned into Christmas Day.
Going out now to clear some Global Warming that's packed solid and folk are slipping on it... then down to celebrate a dinner with folk that wouldn't get anything special otherwise.
I'm not immune to the possibility of Briffa etc either. But wasn't he pretty unwell at the time? ah, kidneys, could be signifying fear, poor devil.
@RoyFOMR
Whilst agreeing with the sentiment of it being a thankless task being in the police i am certain that, from personal experiences, they could certainly do more to help their cause.
On this particular investigation though, i am totally unsurprised it is taking so long to reach and publish any kind of finding. I have particular knowledge of several police forensic teams - a couple in the UK and one in the US. The outward appearance may be that it is a job for existing officers who are exceptionally skilled in computing. But having spoken off the record to a number of them and their friends/colleagues/acquaintances it is quite clear that it was more a knee jerk reaction from above (political or otherwise) to form these teams some years back in the light of the increase in computer/internet based crime (thinking here mainly of the kiddie pr0n type as it is high profile and relatively easy to prosecute when vast quantities of pics are found on the local hard drive) ; and the requirements to be an officer classed as skilled in computing may be as little as having had a PC (no pun intended) at home which they were able to turn on and send emails from. And once in these teams, with the high profile that they carry, no one wants to leave.
That ties in nicely with the quote in the release about 'specialist investigators'. I have no knowledge of who they would be...another force (SOCA/the Met) or external private companies. Now if it is the external option then they will almost certainly not be prepared to deviate from the facts. This may be inconvenient, indeed, for the police should they have any agenda.
But it is certainly much more involved looking at a whole network than a single PC. Especially as there will be a multitude of operating systems and code, not just MS Windows. And as we all have heard, there seems to be little or no documentation about anything on the CRU/UEA network, so i sincerely doubt there are well maintained ACLs (access control lists) with logging and shared passwords are almost a certainty too. That makes determining absolute culpabilty rather tricky.
So i would expect by Feb or March next year the police to confirm that the emails were released without authority. Even though it was actually the sanitized FOIA request collation (hence no personal stuff involved such as) that CRU were so adamant in their emails about not releasing. Maybe there will be a name, or even a scapegoat, attached to this; then a suggestion to enhance IT practices.
It will then leave both sides able to claim, well.......just about the same as they are claiming now.
/cynicism
Keith Briffa has long been suspected as the leaker, followed by Harry (of harry_read_me fame). From what I can gather, Harry is a suss because of his obvious exasperation in trying to make a sense of the data he was provided with. As for Briffa, he is a suspect because both sides have long considered him as the weakest link in the CAGW camp.
My view, however, is that neither of them is responsible for the leak. There was a lot of discussion last year about how the large file came to be compiled. The name of the file (FOIA) and the contents suggest it's a compilation in response to an FOI application that was not followed through. It is much more likely that a junior scientific, administrative, or IT personnel, who was aware of the file and its content, copied it and posted it on the web. Similarly, note that it wasn't the diplomatic staff that was responsible for the huge information given to Wikileaks, but a mere Private in the US Army.
I also had a hunch about it while reading Real Climate's response at the height of the controversy. The leaker had said this was a "random" selection of correspondence. It seemed as though Gavin Schmidt (who either never slept or let Micheal Mann respond as 'Gavin' half the time) was bracing himself for worse to come. It seemed to me the Real Climate team was relieved that the follow-up never happened and more evidence casting doubt on their science remained hidden. If the leaker was either Briffa or Harry, the selection would not be 'random', it would contain more powerful evidence than those released, and there would have been a follow up release. Again, most likely a junior staff is responsible for it.
The two pieces of evidence that counters my argument is that, the leaker 1- had IT skills high above the average, and 2- hacked into Real Climate blog. I am not sure if RC passwords were passed around in those emails, but it seems the hacker (in this instance they are no longer 'leakers') penetrated RC with great ease.
That is my sleuth work. Happy to help the Norfolk Carabinieri anytime -my dear, Watson?-, but I wish they could at least tell us:
1- Was it external (hacker) or internal (leaker)?
2- Was the FAOI file already compiled before it was released?
I bet two bobs that both answers are affirmative.
It is about a year since I was helping John Costella with his “Climategate analysis”. It struck me towards the end that Keith Briffa was very ill and coming under pressure about his Yamal tree-ring work. He was away from the CRU most of the time and some of his emails showed that he was working on computers other than his own. Whether he had the time, the knowledge and the access to the emails and data is uncertain. In his state of mind it could be that he was fed up enough to do something about the pressure he was coming under from the “team” (Mann, Jones, Osborne, Wigley, Hughes etc). His immediate work colleague, Tom Melvin, was in a much better position to leak the emails. He was much younger, therefore more computer savvy, and was also under pressure and not trusted by the team, as shown in the following chain of emails:
September 30, 2009: email 1254323180
Tim Osborne to Mike Mann and Gavin Schmidt:
October 2, 2009: email 1254505571
Malcolm Hughes to Keith Briffa:
My thoughts at the time were that, in his state of health, Keith Briffa couldn’t take any more, and, over the next two months, he and Tom Melvin put together the file and Tom Melvin then released it.
Happy Christmas to all.
Andrew, just to wish you and yours a very Merry Christmas and a Happy and peaceful New Year.
Re Philip Bratby
Hey, that's ageist!
But potentially explains some old timers assumptions that the 'hack' was sophisticated and therefore must have been the work of a state intelligence servce. Nothing about the 'hack' looked particularly sophisticated given the proxies used showed up on a google search for 'open proxies' and the dropsite for 'open ftp servers'. Same's true for the supposed RC hack given the exploit alledgedly used was pretty well known at the time. But the RC hack was one of the oddities. If the drop was a gift to sceptics, why bother trying to put it on RC at all and not distribute via the sceptical sites, as eventually happened. And of couse if the 'hack' was so serious, why didn't Gavin contact law enforcement rather than losing any evidence. An insider with an attack of conscience or a grudge is a simpler explanation and the more common explanation for leaks.
Re Tom
Don't forget early retirement can also mean transitioning across to consultancy work for one of the subsidiaries of ACPO Ltd. That seems to be growing rather rapidly and profitably at the moment. Biggest challenge still seems to be how to de-politicise the police, which may be hard while Chief Constables are effectively political appointments. Suggestions of elected Chiefs may just make it worse. Legislators should enact laws, the police enforce them and if that means legislators or their pals get caught, well that's too bad. A two-tier justice system is rarely in the public interest.
It probably should. Previously detected frauds run into the billions and the latest theft of indulgences is in the high millions. Italy's discovered one of the biggest beneficiaries of green business has been the Mafia and Camora, so serious and organised crime already. Plus if the indulgences are convertable currency, there's probably plenty of very dodgy money being washed through the system given the apparently lax security. With the money involved, asset recovery could probably pay for some really good arrest parties.
But merry xmas all, especially those in uniform helping keep the country safe and ticking over :)
For immediate release:
Following the government's initiative on localism in policing, Norfolk Constabulary are pleased to announce the next step in their evolving methodology for investigation in the Climategate affair.
We take inspiration from Delia Smith, a local celebrity and sporting entrepreneur and her public utterances:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z_8JLkwzpd0&feature=related
and give due warning to any malefactors still skulking in the shadows of our intent to raid UEA and loudly proclaim
'Where are you? Let's be having you then'
We are confident that this new approach, but still founded firmly on historic traditions of policing, will rapidly bring any criminals to book and that the matter will soon be satisfactorily concluded. The general public are warned that breathalysers may be deployed with extreme prejudice within 100 yards of the locus.
Pharos -- My Irish home is in Kerry. Of course, we do have our jokes about mad dogs and Englishmen. :)
Returning to the Norfolk police, I agree with several others that it was an inside job. I also agree that it was most likely a young male for all the reasons given. And although it irritated the hell out of me with eyestrain, I do think that Pointman's blog pointed to above was well worth the effort to cut and past on Notepad to read (as suggested by woodentop).
And I really, really suspect that the Norfolk police wish that it just would all go away. Indeed, I am not sure if a crime was committed. Publishing information you had a right of access to may be a civil issue (such as breach of contract/agreement) but not criminal. Thus, if leaked, who is there to arrest?
I am not familiar with the details of UK law regarding such issues, but if one of you is, perhaps you can clarify if there is a criminal case it if turns out that one of the insiders leaked it.
Ref sHx ad Don Pablo.
I am with you guys on this. Not necessarily a known "insider", maybe someone with IT savvy, brought in, to troubleshoot, possibly in connection with concerns over FOI, storage and deletions.
In which case, Don Pablo, no criminal charges could be brought, and no incentive for UEA to bring an embarrassing civil action, as more dirty laundary would be aired
I am with atomic. The supposed reaclimate 'hack' just doesn't fit any storyline.
If someone had tried to post the FOIA file up as a comment at RC, would that have caused the site to crash?
Merry Christmas to the leaker indeed.
If (fingers crossed) and when the whole house of cards falls, will there be a couple of OBEs named among those who've saved us from this mess?
Confined, bereft of reason
Withering in toxicity
- the deadly fumes of deceit
And we all reek of complicity
Humbled, brought to our knees
By the weight of our own guilt
Our nescient ways the catalyst
To injustice and inhumanity
We dance - to appease
Compete in stupidity
...
We believe - so we're misled
We assume - so we're played
We confide - so we're deceived
We trust - so we're betrayed
Dancers to a Discordant System
Just to widen the list a little further, has anyone entertained the possibility that Mike Hulme might have something to do with it? I still don't think senior staff is involved, but if Briffa can do it, why not Hulme?
You fellows should look for motive, means and oportunity as Mr. Holmes said.
In India it is custom to use the police to keep the lid on cases embarrassing the establishment: they are given to the CBI, the countries highest police investigation agency. It usually "works quite well" (endless delays followed by vague reports claiming lack of evidence), unless busy bodies like the Supreme Court try to interfere. As your present government also seems to have caught "the green bug", I am expecting an "Indian" outcome.
"He would have been a hero"
BBD,
I know I'm slow to addressing this, but he would not have been a hero to everyone. He would have been a 'hero' to his enemies, the Deniers. I doubt his fortunes/destiny/interests/loyalty reside with the Other Tribe. He chose the easy way out - staying in the tribe he is already in, for whatever reason. It doesn't really matter, anyway. "He would he been a hero" is a conclusion drawn without thinking it logically through, though. It assumes a preference for Truth, which the Warmer tribe has shown they do not have.
Andrew
So it wasn't the FSB?
"no criminal charges could be brought"
In which case, it can't really be sub judice...
BTW, Lucy - I like your idea.
AntonyIndia
As your present government also seems to have caught "the green bug", I am expecting an "Indian" outcome.
And where do you think they learned it from? Ever hear of the British Raj?
Can the police themselves not be charged with offences under the FOI act now?
Given that the police seem to be fully commited to supporting a cover-up - including of the leaker's identity - isn't it time we gave him/her some sort of name?
How about Deep Climate?
Deep Climate? Nah, it's been had, that's the place for redefining plagiarism.
Frosty, nice one!
About this time last year I read an article written by a sys admin who, based on headers in the emails (I think) had a fair idea of how the CRU system was set up and who wrote up a quick analysis on whether it was likely/possible that a hacker got in and accumulated the data.
The conclusion was it was almost impossible for an outside hacker to have broken into all the systems involved, then found and accumulated the relevant data.
Unfortunately I didn't bookmark the site, has anyone else got a link?
Nial
I still say we go with Deep Climate.
Besides being apt, it'll also annoy the said alarmist blogger who has so freely donated so much of his own whitewash to the Climategate case file.
Perhaps too we could erect statues to our unknown leaker...suggest he get a Nobel prize...(or that the IPCC/Gore one get withdrawn and put in trust for him)....
Deep Stoat?