Monday
Dec202010
by 
Bishop Hill
Bishop Hill Met Office says they kept mum
Dec 20, 2010 Climate: MetOffice GWPF is reporting a press release from the Met Office in which they say they did not predict a mild winter. As far as I remember the Met Office stopped issuing long-range forecasts last year, which would tally with the press release. But I have a nagging feeling that I heard something said about it being mild again this winter.
Does anyone remember anything?
Reader Comments (55)
Not impressed by Met Office performance locally.
In my part of the UK, the consistent 'Current Conditions' over the last few days has been 'Fog', day after day. Not a sign of it, certainly within a 30miles radius of the home town.
Changed today I've noticed, on the right hand side of the page however I was intrigued by the invitation
"Has it snowed where you are? Let us know using the link below. Issued at 0402 on Tue 21 Dec 2010"
ehh, haven'y they got satellite thingys to get this type of information? Would have a little more confidence in what they said if they spent less time polishing the old supercomputer and more time looking out the window!
“they say they did not predict a mild winter”
As Mandy Rice-Davies so eloquently put it: they would say that, wouldn’t they?
Regarding the comment on December 21 @1.24 AM
Three cold winters in a row, each with a probability of occurrence of 1 in 20 years does not result in a combined probability of 1 in 8000 years. Climate events of a given probability are not uniformly distributed in time. Extreme events tend to cluster because of what hydrologists call "persistence". A simple example: when a drought occurs it is actually more likely that a drought will occur next year because of lower groundwater levels. Climate (like many natural phenomena) exhibits cycles which was first mathematically established by H. E. Hurst based on 1000 years of flow records from the River Nile. The apparent increases in global average temperature in recent decades may simply be an example of the Hurst Phenomenon.
[Snip - venting]
Try this for a MET office forecast in Oct (well not really but then maybe, very confused as to what they get paid for and do)
http://autonomousmind.files.wordpress.com/2010/12/met_office_3mo_temp_map_oct.jpg