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still no sign of that new Lew paper
...when the results of a paper are published in the media before they come out in the journal ..normally that's a red flag !

May 13, 2015 at 10:24 AM | Registered Commenterstewgreen

@Jolly Farmer .. I just wanted to mention the difference between listening to our friends Betts and someone like Bob Carter, Patrtrick Moore & Matt Ridley etc. where every step they mention seems to make sense and when someone asks a question they are able to answer it calmly without evasion..Every time I feel am really learning something from logical and professional people.

May 13, 2015 at 9:48 AM | Registered Commenterstewgreen

Wonderfully old school post about ENSO from Judith Curry covering measurable evidence for prediction.

May 13, 2015 at 8:42 AM | Registered CommenterLord Beaverbrook

TinyCO2: But the BBC website finishes its article with "Research suggests that extreme El Nino events will become more likely as global temperatures rise", but doesn't include the other conclusion that "Research suggests that extreme El Nino events will become less likely as global temperatures fall". No balance in the all important conclusion then?

May 13, 2015 at 8:40 AM | Registered CommenterPhillip Bratby

An amazingly balanced view of the El Nino effect on the BBC this morning. The word 'natural' cropped up at least once and while I didn't see all of the section, I didn't hear them say 'this is the sort of thing you'd expect to see with climate change'. Amazing. Everyone has been talking about a cold winter but it's a little premature to speculate about December but perhaps they're worried that Paris might be snow bound at an inconvenient moment? Oh the dilemma - praying for El Nino global warming but scared of an old fashioned European winter.

May 13, 2015 at 7:02 AM | Unregistered CommenterTinyCO2

Also, and in good time for Paris, the BBC has this -

Forecasters say that the weather pattern known as El Nino has been forming and could cause a "substantial weather event".
LINK

May 12, 2015 at 9:42 PM | Registered CommenterRobin Guenier

I've just watched the latest edition of The Sky at Night which focused on Venus. All the usual pushing of the CO₂ agenda including a very dodgy looking 'science' experiment in the lab. Just about every programme on the BBC at the moment is an advert for the Paris conference. http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b05vlhgz/the-sky-at-night-venus-earths-twin

May 12, 2015 at 9:08 PM | Unregistered CommenterBloke down the pub

0.6°C? - All together now: So what! Seriously!

May 12, 2015 at 7:42 PM | Unregistered CommenterHarry Passfield

" 0.6 degree C in the last 50 years"

UHI - 0.5 deg and undocumented ad-hoc "homogenisation"equally.

May 12, 2015 at 4:17 PM | Unregistered CommenterSandyS

@Jonathan Paget. "I don't understand how anyone can observe local warming or the effects of local warming and attribute it to the tiny bias, not to the natural variation."

You see what your doing here Jonathan? You're projecting common sense into the argument. That's not how it works I'm afraid, there was a paper published a few weeks ago with postulated that certain whales had moved to their feeding grounds one day earlier for thirty years from around 1980 to 2009. The temperature rose during this period by 0.85Cish, which meant that these whales in 1980 detected a 0.5C change in atmospheric (not sea which was too small to notice) temperature and went to their feeding grounds a day earlier. Then the temperature stopped rising in 1998 these whales, instead of detecting the extra heat we are told went into the ocean carried on moving to their feeding grounds a day early every year. This garbage got published without anyone questioning the basic logic of the assertions.

May 12, 2015 at 2:37 PM | Unregistered Commentergeronimo

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