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Sandy:

Indeed. Have you ever seen Richard Black question anything he writes about? His unquestioning attitude shows his complete lack of any scientific background.

Oct 10, 2011 at 10:12 AM | Unregistered CommenterPhillip Bratby

Thanks for the clarification Richard and the link.

Unfortunately some decision-makers did appear to interpret the long term projections as being relevant to the near term!

You are right there. I see it all the time. Only the scary AGW message comes across. Every gardening programme on the BBC says prepare for warmer wetter winters and hotter drier summers. The NFU advises farmers likewise. Councils seem to be spending large amounts of money on preparing for it. Why have the MET Office and these other organisations not spoken up about this misuse of the projections?

Oct 10, 2011 at 10:10 AM | Unregistered CommenterPhillip Bratby

More information on the Richard Black article. It's all cut-and-paste.

Oct 10, 2011 at 8:26 AM | Phillip Bratby

What from the BBC's lead environment correspondent! Are you sure? What is the world coming to?

Oct 10, 2011 at 10:00 AM | Unregistered CommenterSandy

Oct 10, 2011 at 8:12 AM | Phillip Bratby

But UKCP09 says we are going to get milder, wetter winters in the UK. Now I'm all confused.

That projection from UKCP09 is for average winter conditions and in the long term (several decades away). In the near-term, natural variability dominates, so cold winters were never ruled out for the near term - and even in the long term, they may still happen from time to time.

Unfortunately some decision-makers did appear to interpret the long term projections as being relevant to the near term! (I think there were too many middle-men involved).

There is information on inappropriate use of UKCP09 here.

Oct 10, 2011 at 9:40 AM | Unregistered CommenterRichard Betts

Oct 10, 2011 at 7:52 AM | Lord Beaverbrook

It would be nice to see the paper, any links?

The paper "Solar forcing of winter climate variability in the Northern Hemisphere" by my Met Office Hadley Centre colleagues Sarah Ineson, Adam Scaife and others (including Oxford Uni and Imperial College) is here

Sadly, as usual, you will only be able to read the abstract unless you are either a Nature Geoscience subscriber or you pay for the full article.

However I'll be happy to send a copy if you email me - or I can send one to BH and he can pass it on if he's happy to do that.

It's a really exciting piece of work, with tantalising evidence of how we may be able to improve seasonal to interannual forecasts at a regional scale.

Oct 10, 2011 at 9:30 AM | Unregistered CommenterRichard Betts

Been wondering when the next 'deniers are mad' meme would come along:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-15214080

Brain 'rejects negative thoughts'

"And despite how sophisticated these neural networks are, it is illuminating to see how the brain sometimes comes up with wrong and overly optimistic answers despite the evidence."
But as Dr Sharot points out: "The negative aspect is that we underestimate risks."

Oct 10, 2011 at 9:13 AM | Unregistered CommenterTheBigYinJames

Dr David Whitehouse covers the story at the GWPF.
http://thegwpf.org/the-observatory/4063-the-sun-and-the-winter-of-2011.html

Oct 10, 2011 at 9:02 AM | Unregistered CommenterPhillip Bratby

'Ineson and colleagues from the Imperial College London and the University of Oxford used satellite data that more accurately measures UV radiation from the sun and found a much greater variability than previously thought.

They found that in years of low activity, unusually cold air forms high in the atmosphere over the tropics. This causes a redistribution of heat in the atmosphere, triggering easterly winds that bring freezing weather and snow storms to northern Europe and the United States and milder weather to Canada and the Mediterranean.

When solar UV radiation is stronger, the opposite occurs.'

http://www.newsmax.com/Newsfront/solar-dimming-freezing-winters/2011/10/09/id/413763

'Commenting in Nature Geoscience, Katja Matthes from the Helmholtz Centre in Potsdam, Germany, describes the results as "intriguing, albeit somewhat provisional"."The trends seen in the SIM observations are still under discussion and remain to be confirmed," she writes.She also points out that SIM measures only a proportion of the ultraviolet region of the spectrum.'

http://www.arabstoday.net/en/ultraviolet-light-shone-on-cold-winter-conundrum/Print.html

Oct 10, 2011 at 8:29 AM | Unregistered CommenterLord Beaverbrook

@philip... just like Pig Pen in Peanuts they are defining your own personal climate space. So no matter what you are experiencing, someone else must be experiencing something opposite.

It is sort of like priests defining heaven and hell to you. Whatever you experience and elucidate on, there will always be an explanation showing you are insignificant.Your experience can be ignored.

In a world where everything becomes "relative" you can make "truth" what ever you want it to be...

Oct 10, 2011 at 8:28 AM | Unregistered CommenterJiminy Cricket

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