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Green Sand
At least some are still on the ball.

What is mind blowing is Figure 1b, which gives the POGA C simulations (natural internal variability only). The main ’fingerprint’ of AGW has been the detection of a separation between climate model runs with natural plus anthropogenic forcing, versus natural variability only. The detection of AGW has emerged sometime in the late 1970′s , early 1980′s.

Compare the temperature increase between 1975-1998 (main warming period in the latter part of the 20th century) for both POGA H and POGA C:

POGA H: 0.68C (natural plus anthropogenic)
POGA C: 0.4C (natural internal variability only)

I’m not sure how good my eyeball estimates are, and you can pick other start/end dates. But no matter what, I am coming up with natural internal variability associated accounting for significantly MORE than half of the observed warming.

Like I said, my mind is blown. I have long argued that the pause was associated with the climate shift in the Pacific Ocean circulation, characterized by the change to the cool phase of the PDO. I have further argued that if this is the case, then the warming since 1976 was heavily juiced by the warm phase of the PDO. I didn’t know how to quantify this, but I thought that it might account for at least half of the observed warming, and hence my questioning of the IPCC’s highly confident attribution of ‘most’ to AGW.

Aug 29, 2013 at 7:47 AM | Unregistered CommenterLord Beaverbrook

A government source tells the Times:

“No 10 and the Foreign Office think Miliband is a f****** c*** and a copper-bottomed s***.

Makes you wonder how they would react if anybody back-tracked on global warming ...

Aug 29, 2013 at 7:16 AM | Registered Commentermatthu


"60 year cycle still to be discovered by climate scientists."

O, rest assured they have discovered it! Hence the concentration of how to "disinformation" it!

The UK establishment are past and present masters at such subterfuge. But in the past it was easy to direct disinformation against an obvious common enemy. I wonder how long will it be before the present funding base realises that they are now THE common enemy?

PS. When they do make yourself ready!

Aug 29, 2013 at 12:39 AM | Registered CommenterGreen Sand


Absolute classic haven't laughed so much in ages.

But the researchers warn that the impact of this multi-decadal cool trend will come to an end and will be replaced by a warming one. Global temperatures will rise once again.

"We're pretty confident that the swing up will come some time in the future, but the current science can't predict when that will be," said Prof Xie.

60 year cycle still to be discovered by climate scientists.

Aug 28, 2013 at 11:55 PM | Unregistered CommenterLord Beaverbrook


The same ENSO story is being reported in the Guardian too. Strangely, it comes across as though climate scientists were hitherto unaware of the PDO, and haven't incorporated it into their models until now.

Aug 28, 2013 at 11:37 PM | Unregistered CommenterTurning Tide

Just to say a complete transcript of BBC Radio 4's The Life Scientific, with Joanna Haigh, is now available here:

Aug 28, 2013 at 11:02 PM | Unregistered CommenterAlex Cull

"Bernie Hobbs is a pioneer of Australian motoring,” Fairfax gushed in 2010:
Best known as a judge on the ABC’s New Inventors, she is among the first in the country to ditch her internal combustion-powered car for an all-electric car.

Hobbs is the proud owner of a Blade Electron, a vehicle that starts life as a Hyundai Getz …
There are still big question marks over the charging infrastructure, long-term battery life, safety and resale value of electric vehicles.

But none of that matters to Hobbs. She’s happy to face those challenges head on.

“I’ve been rabbiting on about the environment for 10 years,” she says. “When my old car started getting the shakes I thought, ‘I don’t want to commit to buying petrol for another 10 years’. So I’ve put my money where my mouth is.”
She sure did. Let’s see how Bernie’s earth-saving electric experiment has worked out:
Instead of buzzing battery-powered through Sydney’s inner west, the ABC Science presenter’s converted Hyundai Getz is on the hoists in a workshop in Geelong, with electric car experts deciding its fate.

Not that Bernie owns the car anymore. After splashing out $48,000 on the Blade Electron – Australia’s first commercially available plug-in electric car – three years ago, Bernie had to flog it off for $8000 earlier this year …

“It was perfect when I first got it. But I had to sell it earlier this year because it had multiple problems and ended up undrivable,” she said.

“I made a massive loss on it.”
Instead of spending $48,000 on a modified Hyundai Getz that is actually slower and much less reliable than a regular Hyundai Getz (available new for less than $14,000, by the way) Bernie should have bought a V8. It’s the only sensible option. Or maybe she should have put her cash into a pre-depreciated Clown Shoe.

Aug 28, 2013 at 9:18 PM | Registered Commenterperry

BBC reports that paper suggests ENSO driving current pause in warming BBC Reports on Paper on Pause in Warming last sentence has the "hiding in deep ocean" caveat though. Do they think people will believe that or is it a comfort blanket for the faithful?

Aug 28, 2013 at 8:55 PM | Unregistered CommenterSandyS

Hoping someone can help me out here? At what level of the EU are EU Directives created, is it the Commission or a lower committee?

Aug 28, 2013 at 8:37 PM | Registered CommenterDung

A nice result for our local campaigner.....

Plans for future wind farms in Britain could be in jeopardy after a United Nations legal tribunal ruled that the UK Government acted illegally by denying the public decision-making powers over their approval and the “necessary information” over their benefits or adverse effects.

The new ruling, agreed by a United Nations committee in Geneva, calls into question the legal validity of any further planning consent for all future wind-farm developments based on current policy, both onshore and offshore.

The UN’s finding is a landmark victory for Christine Metcalfe, 69, a community councillor from Argyll, who lodged a complaint with the UN on the grounds that the UK and EU had breached citizens’ rights under the UN’s Aarhus Convention.


Aug 28, 2013 at 6:30 PM | Unregistered CommenterDave_G

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