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Lord Beaverbrook

"Retospective forecasts". I like it. Definitions:

Retrospective (adjective):
1. Looking back on, contemplating, or directed to the past
2. Looking or directed backward
3. Applying to or influencing the past

Forecast (noun):
A prediction, as of coming events or conditions

It seems like an oxymoron to me!

Dec 31, 2012 at 11:55 AM | Registered CommenterPhillip Bratby

Lord Beaverbrook

The honest move would have been to show both the old and the new projections, what they have done is indefensible :(
Where are you Richard Betts?

Dec 31, 2012 at 11:51 AM | Registered CommenterDung

Greensand

If you are around then check out the update to MET decadal forecast. The predictions from previous presentations have been completely changed to match the empirical data and also changed to 5 year periods!


During 2012 our decadal prediction system was upgraded to use the latest version of our coupled climate model. The forecasts and retrospective forecasts shown here have been updated to reflect this change.

Wow... unbelievable the modeled past output has just been rewritten.

Dec 31, 2012 at 11:32 AM | Registered CommenterLord Beaverbrook

The leak of the AR5 draft presents the IPCC with an interesting problem. Whereas earlier reports expressed great confidence about the validity of the dangerous AGW hypothesis, various analyses of the draft (such as the Hoffer articles and the Lewis/Schlesinger studies) indicate that such confidence is not justified. It can hardly say it was wrong before. So what will it do?

Dec 31, 2012 at 11:21 AM | Registered CommenterRobin Guenier

SandyS

Thanks for the link and so BB was not the one who actually spotted it and a BH contribotor was one of the first :) Well anyway he came with a good argument for a change so I am still impressed hehe

Dec 31, 2012 at 10:46 AM | Registered CommenterDung

Barry, the graph you reference is incredible. Do they seriously believe that they now have a model that can predict global temperatures to the end of the THIRTIETH century, when their models in this century couldn't predict their way out of a paper bag? Who writes this rubbish, and who is stupid enough to take it seriously?

You probably saw that the thrust of the paper was to suggest that all developed nations cut their carbon emissions to zero over the next 50 years. That's going to work well for the economy. More windmills, anyone?

Dec 31, 2012 at 10:34 AM | Unregistered CommenterRoger Longstaff

That Hoffer's article is an eye opener is evidenced by the fact that the observed current temperature is outside the 95% confidence range of the AR5 model projections. In other words, the models overestimate warming. Using a decadal mean doesn't alter this.

Dec 31, 2012 at 10:16 AM | Registered CommenterRobin Guenier

the most alarmist graph ever ! ?

http://www.abc.net.au/news/linkableblob/4446390/data/temperature-changes-data.jpg

prof Lewandowsky no doubt 'believes' in that graph and th eprojections into future centuries... :(
http://www.abc.net.au/unleashed/4446160.html

Dec 31, 2012 at 9:55 AM | Unregistered CommenterBarry Woods

Leo Hickman is a contributor to this list that is going around 'warmist' blogs (also at Greg Laden, Eli Rabbett's blog)

http://www.shapingtomorrowsworld.org/topclimate2012.html

Perhaps this is the list to end all lists?

if they actually believe their interpretations of all this then they really are just scared people fearing climate catastrophy..

contributors:

Michael Mann
Stephan Lewandowsky
Scott Mandia
Leo Hickman
John Abraham
Greg Laden,
Joe Romm,
Michael Tobis
Angela Fritz,
A Siegel,
Eli Rabett,
Emilee Pierce,
Gareth Renowden,
Laurence Lewis
Paul Douglas,
Scott Brophy, ,

and Tenney Naumer

Dec 31, 2012 at 9:48 AM | Unregistered CommenterBarry Woods

Dec 31, 2012 at 7:01 AM | Registered CommenterDung

Check these comments on the original WUWT item.

HaroldW says:
December 30, 2012 at 5:27 am

Abraham3 says:
December 30, 2012 at 12:42 pm

lsvalgaard says:
December 30, 2012 at 6:12 am

Dec 31, 2012 at 8:34 AM | Unregistered CommenterSandyS

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