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Discussion > General Election 2017 ?

It needs to be in a thread and not clutter Unthreaded.

Apr 18, 2017 at 11:34 AM | Registered CommenterRobert Christopher

Apr 18, 2017 at 11:22 AM by TinyCO2

"Oooeerrr. Snap election. Unless the mood of the country has been misjudged it should give May the strength she needs to make real decisions. That would include trimming the aid budget and ditch the green madness. I hope UKIPpers step aside for the Conservatives. Ditch Soubry and the other remoaners. Osbourne will be out of a constituency? The only worry is Scotland. Will a high win by the SNP be used as a mandate for a new Scottish referendum?"


"That would include trimming the aid budget and ditch the green madness."
But would it?

"I hope UKIPpers step aside for the Conservatives."
We don't know what the Tory manifesto will contain, yet.

"Ditch Soubry and the other remoaners."
It will be the local constituencies that choose their candidate, I would expect. So we don't know, yet, whether the Tory Party will reflect the will of the people. Yes, a few Remainers will 'fade away', but there are a good many under the radar!

The Government has focused on Brexit, but will need to cover a lot more areas because it is hoping to be elected to government.

What about undoing much of Blair's mistakes, such as parliament's fixed terms, the confusion over DoJ/HoL and the already mentioned 2008CCA, and what Cameron/Clegg did, like the international aid amount enshrined in law.

Then we also have what hasn't been delivered since the last general election, like the constituency boundary changes.

And would the Environment Agency be 'improved' as is planned in the US? And there is the continuing triple lock on state pensions to consider: interesting times ahead. :)

And we may yet not have a General Election on June 8th!

I don't blame her.

It is a h*ll of a risk, but when everyone is against the PM and the people, what other action is there?

The Tory manifesto will be the key. Will the sea change in approach be obvious?

Apr 18, 2017 at 11:59 AM | Registered CommenterRobert Christopher

The green and aid trimming was already on the cards fot the next budget but it conflicts with Cameron's election pledges. I don't think the election will be rejected. Labour want the excuse to get rid of Corbyn. The Lib Dems want to be the Europhile party and want to reverse the losses they made at the last election. The SNP want a mandate for a referendum. UKIP don't have an MP any more.

There's nothing wrong with silent remainers, it's the remoaners that need to go if possible. Hopefully most remain voters will recognise that it's too late to turn back and we need a strong front to get a decent deal from the EU. It would help if the UKIP party recognised that it weakens the government position on leaving the EU. It won't win any seats but it might stop the Conservatives winning them too.

Apr 18, 2017 at 12:14 PM | Unregistered CommenterTinyCO2

I predict a disaster for Labour. Many traditional Labour supporters will welcome this. How long after the General Election will Corbyn realise the value of his overwhelming mandate to lead the Opposition?

The Liberals will do well, if they present themselves as the credible Remoaners.

The BBC does not trust BREXIT, but can't support Corbyn.

Apr 18, 2017 at 12:19 PM | Unregistered Commentergolf charlie

Will the next Leader of the Opposition be chosen by a Liberal and SNP Alliance?

Apr 18, 2017 at 12:41 PM | Unregistered Commentergolf charlie

Not sure about May if she gets a bigger majority, she could already have amended the targets in the Climate Change Act but she has not done so.

Apr 18, 2017 at 12:54 PM | Registered CommenterDung

Dung, she's been busy. The Climate goals and madness are a cross party, and EU lunacy. It takes time to extricate the country from all that. The unaffordability of green crap is the strongest argument but that also takes time for new department appointees to recognise it. Just after May took over, it was the route of least opposition to keep things unchanged in departments that weren't critical. Time for a change.

Apr 18, 2017 at 1:11 PM | Unregistered CommenterTinyCO2

gc, the BBC hate Corbyn because although he stands for everything they've ever wanted, he's not a great leader and it turns out those lefty ideals are insane. They always were but they sound so much more convincing when voiced by a good orator.

Apr 18, 2017 at 1:14 PM | Unregistered CommenterTinyCO2

TinyCO2

May is the most secretive PM for many years and she has demonstrated the ability to keep her plans from even her own MPs, I am not sure any of us knows what she will do given the majority she seeks.

Apr 18, 2017 at 1:18 PM | Registered CommenterDung

Dung & Tiny CO2,

I don't think that scrapping the Climate Change Act could have changed very much until the EU divorce is completed.

Obviously if the Greens, Liberals, Labour and SNP want to argue that Global Warming/CCA is the most important General Election/BREXIT2 Referendum Issue, they are welcome, but the smart money is pulling back from unreliable "investing", now that the UK Government does not guarantee profits by ripping off taxpayers.

Apr 18, 2017 at 1:34 PM | Unregistered Commentergolf charlie

Oh dear, the diesel campaign buses will be out in force poisoning the electorate, in several senses. Political pollution indices will reach all time highs.

Apr 18, 2017 at 1:35 PM | Unregistered CommenterSupertroll

GC and TinyCO2

Cameron was driven by the UN and by sustainable development not climate change, Cameron even chaired a UN committee that set new sustainable development targets for the world. We have no idea whether or not May buys into sustainability,she truly does keep her cards close to her ample bosom ^.^

Apr 18, 2017 at 1:40 PM | Registered CommenterDung

Supertroll

I believe there will be a serious attempt to quantify the political pollution on 8th June :)

Apr 18, 2017 at 1:45 PM | Registered CommenterDung

Apr 18, 2017 at 1:18 PM | Dung

As PM and leader of the Conservatives, those who don't trust her, can now say so, on the public record. Tory MPs who oppose BREXIT now have only six weeks to save/destroy their future careers. Historians may not remember them, but their Constituency Parties won't forget.

Apr 18, 2017 at 1:55 PM | Unregistered Commentergolf charlie

But Dung, political pollution levels will be unprecedented and cause massive overheating (already CO2 emissions from the chatteratti will damage Europe and the rest of the planet beyond repair). Greens will be overwhelmed by rising tides of Maymania and Corbyn will be buried by widespread landslides. Chirality is now so uneven; the whole world is tipping dextral.

Do you think May was influenced by the Turkish result?

Apr 18, 2017 at 2:18 PM | Unregistered CommenterSupertroll

Supertroll

I do suspect that May could be interested in a little Turkish delight but I do not believe she would be willing to pay for it.

Apr 18, 2017 at 2:23 PM | Registered CommenterDung

Dung & Supertroll, you both know this is nothing to do with the political delights of Turkey.

Everyone knows it must be due to Global Warming, as nothing so unprecedented has ever happened before. The Met Office have already prepared the Press Release confirming April 2017 as the hottest on record, and this news just confirms everything there is to know about Climate Science - their guesswork is 97% wrong.

Apr 18, 2017 at 3:29 PM | Unregistered Commentergolf charlie

The news bods are saying that the only thing in the Conservative manifesto is going to be Brexit, if that is the case then May would have a policy blank cheque for 5 years! May really has been observing Erdogan and his Turkish delight.

Apr 18, 2017 at 3:51 PM | Registered CommenterDung

GC, Dung, Perhaps a better analogy might be North Korea, and May has adopted the nuclear option.
I wonder what it was in Snowdonia that tipped the balance towards a snap election - a glaciated wilderness. Perhaps she was reminded of Labour.

Apr 18, 2017 at 4:06 PM | Unregistered CommenterSupertroll

I think calling a GE is the right move at the right time and not without some courage. I believe there were a lot of voters at the referendum who would like to leave the EU but were afraid of the consequences. I hope they will be reassured now that Armageddon did not happen and get behind a re-mandated government. It is also an opportunity to remove remainers in leave constituencies from all parties. It also presents the prospect of reform/abolition of the House of Lords and reform of energy policy. I also hope the SNP will lose some seats as most Scots do not want another independence referendum and 40% + want to leave the EU. It is not without risk but fingers crossed it will pay off.

Apr 18, 2017 at 6:43 PM | Unregistered CommenterRoss Lea

So Corbyn is such a weak leader that May has no effective opposition?
So May has a free hand in forcing through her view of Brexit?
So May can tell the SNP that now is not the time for big decisions - saving the Union?

But for some reason May wants to change this situation.
I suspect the Tory polling predicts that the longer Corbyn stays the stronger his support will get as the divisions caused by the legacy Blairites fall away.

Some say this is just opportunism by May. But it looks a lot like desperation.

Apr 18, 2017 at 7:04 PM | Registered CommenterM Courtney

M Courtney, interesting, but I don't agree. I think the polls were just too tempting. I see no downside for May in this. If Corbyn had refused to agree to the election it couldn't have happened - but she would have had the satisfaction of saying he was frightened, and rendered his leadership even more ineffectual (if such a thing is possible). But he agrees to vote for it, so the Fixed Term Parliaments Act is side-stepped by seeing 2/3 of MPs voting for an election (many of whom are turkeys voting for an early Christmas).

I can't see Labour doing well at all; which either sees Corbyn struggling on, even more hopelessly, or seeing him ditched, and possibly replaced by a more effective leader (the only downside here, but given that the next election won't be until 2022, and a week is a long time in politics, does that matter?).

UKIP will probably see their vote halved, with almost all of those votes going to the Tories, inflating May's majority. She then avoids any criticism of her not having been elected as Prime Minister, but just having been anointed by Tory MPs (as at present) and bolsters her authority, while going a long way to knocking UKIP out.

The SNP can hardly do better than they did at the last election, and will probably do worse, given their increasing unpopularity north of the border. This will create the impression that the last general election was their high water mark, and they are now in retreat, thus weakening Sturgeon and making her demands for Indyref2 look increasingly desperate.

If you're the PM, what's not to like?

Of course, the British electorate are unpredictable, and all of the above might prove to be wrong, but I suspect reasoning along those lines lies behind the decision, not desperation.

Apr 18, 2017 at 8:23 PM | Unregistered CommenterMark Hodgson

Mark Hodgson & M Courtney

Cameron gambled on a Brexit Referendum, in order to undermine his critics, and secure his mandate. He lost.

May has gambled on a General Election, in order to undermine ALL her Remaining Critics, and write her own mandate.

Her Remaining Critics include MPs and Lords from ALL Political Parties, Lawyers, the Media, Business, The City, financial markets and the BBC. Her Remaining critics also include EU Leaders and civil servants, who have no vote, but a big say in Brexit negotiations. Voters across the EU are noticing that the UK has not collapsed due to Brexit, as they were advised.

Labour have Emily Thornberry on Newsnight presenting Corbyn's case. At least Labour will have another 5 years to rebuild, under new leadership.

Apr 18, 2017 at 11:26 PM | Unregistered Commentergolf charlie

I wonder whether this story in The Observer/Guardian had anything to do with May's snap decision

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/15/only-45-of-labour-voters-think-corbyn-would-be-best-pm-poll

"Fewer than half of Labour voters think Jeremy Corbyn would be the best prime minister, according to a poll for the Observer that finds the Conservatives remain the most trusted party on all key issues except the NHS.

Research by Opinium suggests that given a two-way choice between Corbyn andTheresa May, 14% of voters would choose the Labour leader, compared with 47% for the prime minister. Among Labour voters asked the question, 45% said they would like to see Corbyn in No 10."

Corbyn maintains he has an overwhelming mandate from Labour Members, yet less than half of Labour voters would prefer Corbyn as PM as opposed to May?

Apart from Thornberry and Abbott, who else from the Shadow Cabinet is going to sing Corbyn's praises for the BBC?

The Labour Party will take part in the Election, and Candidates will campaign very hard to save their seats, on Local Issues, but most will not be fighting for a Labour victory. The campaigning for next Leader of the Labour Party has now begun, a year too late, and possibly, still a few years too soon.

Given the constitutional changes proposed by the Shadow Chancellor, the forthcoming Election Defeat is the best hope for Labour and the UK, to have something Left, to try and save.

Obviously Trump was never going to win in 2016, so who knows?

Apr 19, 2017 at 1:13 AM | Unregistered Commentergolf charlie

The fixed term parliament was surely a Cameron/Clegg notion? I suspect an important factor for Mrs May is grammar schools - she would like that included in a manifesto. I'll wait and see if I am as wrong about that as I was in predicting that there would not be a GE before 2020!

Apr 19, 2017 at 9:26 AM | Unregistered Commentermike fowle