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Discussion > Predictions for 2017

Predictions for 2017

I have been in absentia for a while, but I thought I'd return for my annual predictions thread. I seem to be getting worse at the old prediction as time goes on, so I may start calling them 'projections' instead and get myself tenure at UEA. Anyway, a look at what I said last year.

1. The pause will continue to the end of 2016

It's early days but what with it being an El Niño year, it looks like the spike will throw the flatline off a bit - the real observation will be where the temperature settles back to afterwards, it appears to have been something of a ratchet effect in previous cycles, but who knows. All I know is that the trends do seem up this year, so my prediction was wrong.

2. Fracking will begin commercially by the end of the year

North Yorkshire and Lancashire both had greenlights for fracking this year, but until there's a hole in the ground, the dastards can and will try to stop it. Almost right, take half a point because the intent is there.

3. The EU Referendum will result in a tiny tiny yes to stay in

Never been so glad to be wrong on a prediction, although it looks like they are going to bore us to death with a long drawn out and ultimately useless compromise. I hope I'm wrong on that too.

4. Corbyn will resign

I'm not doing well, am I?

5. Heathrow will not be decided on

I think I'd better take up another hobby. Actually, just because ministers have backed a third runway, doesn't mean it's going to happen. But since they at least decided - something - then I have to consider this a failed prediction too.

6. Solar FITs will be reduced again

Little bit of a cheat point on this, because unbeknown to me at the time I wrote this prediction, the government had already set out a schedule of FITs reductions over the course of the following 18 months. So I get the point, I suppose, and it's badly needed.

So I got 1.5 out of 5. Fabulous.

So what about this year? Can I make a set of predictions which are all incorrect? Will this make me qualified to be a climate scientist? Let's give it a go.


1. Article 50 will not be invoked this year.
2. 2017 will be the 'hottest evah'
3. There will be moves to disband the IPCC this year.
4. There will be a fatality involving a wind turbine
5. There will be a terror attack on UK soil

I hope to god I'm wrong on some of them.

I've written another post about why I don't get into climate discussions any more, my current understanding and appreciation of the area, and decisions I've taken for a happier life, and I'll be posting that in the next couple of days before lapsing back into lurkerdom.

Adios.

Jan 5, 2017 at 9:00 AM | Unregistered CommenterTheBigYinJames

You did much, much better than most pollsters last year.

Jan 5, 2017 at 9:42 AM | Unregistered CommenterSupertroll

Hi there BYIJ...

Good to see you're back, albeit momentarily. I have missed reading your comments, firmly grounded in physics, real world R&D experience, and good sense.

Will you be having another go at the edX/MIT course Introduction to Probability - The Science of Uncertainty An introduction to probabilistic models, including random processes and the basic elements of statistical inference ? [It starts in a couple of weeks.] You kindly alerted us to this course last year.

I started the course and I was getting marks in the 95+% region but I dropped it part way through when I found:
- It was taking more time than I had budgeted for, so other things in my life had ground to a halt.
- I did not have the time to read around each subject to understand it completely and in depth, rather than merely to get good marks in the tests. My objective for the course had been the former, rather than the latter.

I'm now weighing up whether or not to clear the decks and have another go at it this year.

Jan 5, 2017 at 11:05 AM | Registered CommenterMartin A

Check Old 2016 prediction thread

Unfortunately R*ff turned up and drove it off topic.

Jan 5, 2017 at 12:57 PM | Registered Commenterstewgreen

@Dung said
1. We will vote to leave the EU (how Cameron responds to that is another matter).
2. Cameron will quit or otherwise lose his position as leader of the Conservative Party.
** 4 points **
3. Corbyn will lose the leadership of the Labour Party.
** Corbyn is head of something which used to be the Labour party
4. Cruz will be nominated as the Republican Presidential leadership candidate and he will become the next president.
** My hope ... but a fail

he added
At some point in the next five years (maybe 2016) the pause will end!
A period of cooling will begin which will end in cold place ^.^

Jan 5, 2017 at 1:19 PM | Registered Commenterstewgreen

Radical Rodent said :
1. Whatever the Met Office predicts for summer, the weather will do the opposite – I suspect that they will predict a wet, miserable year, so look forward to a balmy few months – with perhaps even a drought being declared (and blamed on… guess what?)
** suppose that happened
2. Some “emergency” will occur, causing the US presidential elections to be cancelled, and Obama remaining in office, with increased powers to over-rule both Houses, until it is resolved – if, indeed, they ever think it can be.
** Close, he tried to pull the "Russia fixed it " stunt
So in the fantasy universe of Obama supporters Trump is not the becoming the real president instead it's still Obama

Jan 5, 2017 at 1:25 PM | Registered Commenterstewgreen

TheBigYinJames

Depending on what Trump does to US Government funding of Climate Science, and hence the UN's IPCC and the UN generally, the UK's Spring Budget of 2017 will be interesting.

Global Warming seems to be Unmentionable in politics. Theresa May discarded the DECC, and nobody (that actually mattered) said anything. If May follows Trump, and axes Climate Science, and Corbyn's Labour does not squeak, then Progressive regimes within the EU and it's Member States, will be open goals for opposition groups to shoot at.

Egg-on-Face will be the EU's top recipe for 2017, and it won't curdle well for 2018 if the stench of Global Warming lingers.

I predict a big bonfire of political vanity projects, across the USA, and the EU will follow in a progressive and erratic manner.

Jan 5, 2017 at 1:51 PM | Unregistered Commentergolf charlie

I predict a major electricity supply failure within the next 3 months in the UK.

Jan 5, 2017 at 2:35 PM | Unregistered CommenterSteve Richards

Good to see you are still around, TBYJ. Sadly, I’m no nearer understanding what you so patiently tried to teach me, earlier, but I will just accept what you say is true.

My predictions last year were made rather tongue-in-cheek, in the hope that they were so outlandish, they could not happen. While I was nowhere near correct, I was still unnervingly close – especially for the second one! There is still time for the US elections to be voided, in one way or another – though the only way that I can actually see that happening is that WWIII is declared in the next 2 weeks.

For 2017:
1. There will be more desperate attempts for the year to be declared the hottest, like, evah! However, the intense cold suffered in many places, especially those notoriously hot, as we drop back into a mini-ice age, will make more and more people realise that all is not well in the climate department, and that someone may actually be telling fibs.
2. Trump (assuming he actually does take over; I still have some trepidation about that) will turn off the funding faucet, and climate science will gradually die back from its bloated form into something more rigorous and vigorous, and start performing real science, with nobody making any headlines.
3. Procrastination by May will ensure that Article 50 will not be invoked; the growing rumblings of discontent will trigger a snap general election. While the Conservatives will win, May will be obliged to resign as leader; UKIP will become the principle party in opposition, with the LibDems reduced to no more than 1 MP, and SNP and Labour becoming rump parties, with few MPs and no clout.
4. Another European country (possibly Germany) will vote to leave the EU; others will follow soon after, as the EU continues to crumble.
5. Blackouts throughout the UK will have people demanding that fracking should start NOW, and all attempts to stop it should cease, forthwith.

There. Five should do it. No sports, no entertainment, and no media – all are too fickle for any but the most barmy to try and predict. BTW, there is only one that I hope you are right on – disbanding the IPCC.

Jan 5, 2017 at 7:17 PM | Registered CommenterRadical Rodent

Martin said:

Will you be having another go at the edX/MIT course Introduction to Probability - The Science of Uncertainty An introduction to probabilistic models, including random processes and the basic elements of statistical inference ? [It starts in a couple of weeks.] You kindly alerted us to this course last year.

Alas no. Like you, I started with good intentions but after the first few introductory courses, the amount of time I was having to put in made it impossible to fit in as a hobby. We're renovating the house to sell this year, I have the first draft of a new novel in mid-flight, and my usual business and commercial activities mean I don't have enough time to do it justice. Like you, I was interested in it to apply to real-world problems, and not just as another gong to add to the list.

Jan 6, 2017 at 12:16 PM | Unregistered CommenterTheBigYinJames

Radical Rodent said:

Good to see you are still around, TBYJ. Sadly, I’m no nearer understanding what you so patiently tried to teach me, earlier, but I will just accept what you say is true.

I don't even remember what it was, I'm sure it was semantics rather than conceptual, most disagreements are around here! Take no-ones word for it, especially mine!

Jan 6, 2017 at 12:18 PM | Unregistered CommenterTheBigYinJames

A year ago on the Predictions for 2016 thread TBYJ challenged me to predict the average temperature anomaly for 2016.

EM, a real trick would be for you to predict NOW the anomaly at the end of 2016, re the title of this thread and the original intent of this annual outing.

Jan 22, 2016 at 3:42 PM | Unregistered CommenterTheBigYinJames


The Big Yin James

1998, the El Nino letdown year, was 0.16C warmer than 1997, the El Nino buildup year. If 2015 and 2016 follow the same pattern a similar warming should occur.

I suggest that the GISS 2016 value will come in at anomaly 1.03C.

Would you care to make a projection and explain your reasoning.

Jan 22, 2016 at 11:16 PM | Unregistered CommenterEntropic man

Today GISs published their figure for 2016. They got anomaly 0.99C.

Curses. I said 1.03C. Missed it by 0.04C.

My prediction for 2017 ?

BOM project an ENSO neutral year.

The long term trend is currently passing 0.8C.

I project that the GISS anomaly annual average for 2017 will be 0.82C.

Jan 19, 2017 at 12:34 AM | Unregistered CommenterEntropic man

I project that the GISS anomaly annual average for 2017 will be 0.82C.

Jan 19, 2017 at 12:34 AM | Entropic man

I PREDICT that the GISS anomaly annual averages for 2000 - 2017 will be reassessed without unnecessary adjustments.

Jan 19, 2017 at 1:26 AM | Unregistered Commentergolf charlie