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Discussion > Do you Trust the Met Office?

Some people are claiming that the quiet sun will lead to cooling and it may have started already. If steady cooling does take place the Met office could be in deeper trouble. The government may lose faith in the met office at a time when they are looking for more public expenditure to cut.

Aug 25, 2015 at 7:08 PM | Unregistered CommenterSchrodinger's Cat

A suggested anthem for the beleaguered Met Office (with sincere apologies to all!)

All we want is some gloom somewhere
Bearing down on the cooling air
Warm clouds, warm hands, warm feet
Oh, wouldn't it be loverly

Fewer veggies for us to eat
Far less coal making far less heat
While windmills whirr the air
I'll commandeer my 'puter chair

Aug 27, 2015 at 8:16 AM | Registered CommenterHilary Ostrov

The Met Office predicted a warm dry summer for the cold, very wet one we have just experienced. that seems to be par for the course and one of the alleged reasons for the MO being dumped by the BBC.

Ms Slingo is blaming el Nino without explaining why the greatest met outfit on the planet failed to realize that el Nino was affecting our weather.

It really is not good enough and this is the umpteenth completely wrong seasonal forecast. When do we get our money back, or at least an apology?

Like the BBC, the MO squanders our money on overpaying its managers while under-delivering on its primary function.

Perhaps closing down its climate activities would allow its staff to concentrate on the real factors that influence our weather - and ultimately, our climate.

Sep 1, 2015 at 10:00 PM | Unregistered CommenterSchrodinger's Cat

SC - yes el Nino took us all by surprise.

I remember companies who had been contracted to do work explaining why the work was late: "It's because it's the holiday season and most of the staff have taken vacation leave". Something that was not entirely unpredicatable when the delivery date was committed to.

For the Met Office, as I have said before, a team of perhaps 25 competent meteorologists and some support staff should be sufficient. All other activities (eg software development) which are not its core business to be outsourced.

Sep 1, 2015 at 10:22 PM | Registered CommenterMartin A

Tomorrow's headline:
Met Office pays out record sums in bonuses.

Sep 2, 2015 at 4:43 PM | Unregistered CommenterMessenger

The MO is in the news again. The next two years will warm to record levels. Slingo was interviewed on Today.

She did a good job of mixing together heat in the oceans, El Nino, build up of CO2, all the other decadal and multidecadal oscillations.

John H commented that when people point out that the computer predictions don't come true they get labeled as deniers.

An analysis of Slingo's speech would be interesting. It seemed to me to be a mixture of facts, spin, unsubstantiated belief and wishful thinking. But then, I am no expert.

Sep 14, 2015 at 10:08 AM | Unregistered CommenterSchrodinger's Cat

SC, the BBC dutifully regurgitated it. Back in 2013 Paul Hudson, possibly the most sensible BBC weather/climate writer at the time relayed the "new" multi-year Met office forecast showing it going up a bit and then back down towards 2019. Of course the uncertainties were large enough to fit in anything other than a significant outright decline over the whole period.
I don't suppose Slingo mentioned that.


Personally, I still suspect that they are all taking a bigger PR risk than they realise by doubling down on alarmist global temperature predictions due to El Niño weather patterns in the run up to the Paris climate-fest. I think the average British voter doesn't pay much attention to the word "global". They pay attention to British weather (which is what they probably think they are paying the Met Office for). A cold winter or poor summer, never improbable, will make them think "The Met Office was wrong again." Slingo is playing with fire.

On a side note, have any other BH regulars recently been seeing regular adverts for "Slingo" on-line gambling? I chuckle every time I see it. :)

Sep 14, 2015 at 12:03 PM | Unregistered Commentermichael hart

You make a good point about the UK public being more bothered about UK weather. I've seen a number of dire warnings about the coming winter being very severe. If this coincides with the MO winding up the rhetoric on the warmest year ever then they could look very stupid indeed.

This, at a time when the government is looking for budgets to cut....

Sep 14, 2015 at 12:47 PM | Unregistered CommenterSchrodinger's Cat

"On a side note, have any other BH regulars recently been seeing regular adverts for "Slingo" on-line gambling?"

Haha - now I understand the drawing heading a recent WUWT posting Another BBQ Summer Fiasco: Met Office Gets It Wrong (Again)

The question mark in the title of the paper that, presumably, Slingo was puffing suggests that the Met Office has been finding it uncomfortable having it pointed out how their predictions are rubbish...

Big Changes Underway in the Climate System?

Sep 14, 2015 at 4:15 PM | Registered CommenterMartin A

"9 November 2015 - Met Office data for 2015 so far shows that, for the first time, global mean temperature at the Earth's surface is set to reach 1 °C above pre-industrial levels "

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/release/archive/2015/one-degree

In good time for the Paris conference the Met Office claims that we are half way towards the magic two degree increase.

Nov 9, 2015 at 5:27 PM | Unregistered CommenterSchrodinger's Cat

...for the first time, global mean temperature at the Earth's surface is set to reach 1 °C above pre-industrial levels ...

For the first time ever? Really? Do I trust the Met Office? No, not really.

Nov 9, 2015 at 8:13 PM | Registered CommenterMartin A

In response to the 2 Deg C nonsense I did a piece for Paul Homewood. It puts into perspective, that 2 degrees is quite meaningless https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2015/11/04/2-degrees-of-madness/

Thought you might like a read.

Nov 18, 2015 at 4:40 PM | Unregistered CommenterNeilC

NielC, very good. Though I think you missed a trick. You could have pointed out that most places on earth undergo changes in temperature of tens of degrees every day! Think of that! It is incredible that life still exists and this is clear proof that global warming of a mere two degrees is nothing to fear. Bring it on!

Nov 18, 2015 at 6:06 PM | Unregistered CommenterRaff

Raff, we are (we are told) already halfway to two degrees. Yet, so far as I can see, nobody would have even noticed the first degree rise, if it had not been for the IPCC making a song and dance about it.


Paris average July temperature is 20C, Marseille 24C
Paris average January temperature 5C, Marseille 7C

A few degrees seem no big deal.

Nov 18, 2015 at 6:28 PM | Unregistered CommenterMartin A

Martin, that is brilliant! All those thousand working on climate science and they've never noticed that the annual cycle in Paris exceeds likely rises in temperature by an order of magnitude. With one simple observation you have disproved all of the work done over decades on the effect of relatively small changes in temperature on the natural world. Bravo!

Nov 18, 2015 at 7:35 PM | Unregistered CommenterRaff

You're getting closer, Raff.

Martin A, and a lot of other people, already know that. So do all the climate lame-brains.

Which begs the question 'Why are those ill-educated's trying to convince us that we know nothing about weather and climate, and our experiences, observations, and thoughts, must be disregarded, when we all legitimately experience the real facts every day?'


As a worst case scenario, the Met Office once promised us a "Mediterranean Climate" as punishment for our CO2 sins.

Many rejoiced. With punishment like that, who needs a British climate.

Alas, many people are now very disappointed with the Met Office.

Nov 18, 2015 at 8:48 PM | Unregistered Commentermichael hart

Raff, there were four examples, post industrial times, when the temperatures fell 2 deg C or more.

1828-1855 (27 years) -2.28 Deg C
1846-1879 (33 years) -2.96 Deg C
1921-1963 (42 years) -2.00 Deg C
2006-2010 (4years) -2.00 Deg C

With continuously increasing levels of CO2, how do you explain these cooling periods bases on increasing CO2 increasing temperature theory?

Nov 19, 2015 at 10:54 AM | Unregistered CommenterNeilC

Raff

Yes I have to admit it is surprising how all "those thousand working on climate science" have been able to reveal the effects of climate change on the natural (and the unnatural) world while the rest of us have not even noticed anything unusual.

* AIDS, Afghan poppies destroyed, African holocaust, aged deaths, poppies more potent, Africa devastated, Africa in conflict, African aid threatened, aggressive weeds, Air France crash, air pockets, air pressure changes, airport farewells virtual, airport malaria, Agulhas current, Alaskan towns slowly destroyed, Al Qaeda and Taliban Being Helped, allergy increase, allergy season longer, alligators in the Thames, Alps melting, Amazon a desert, American dream end, amphibians breeding earlier (or not), anaphylactic reactions to bee stings, ancient forests dramatically changed, animals head for the hills, animals shrink, Antarctic grass flourishes, Antarctic ice grows, Antarctic ice shrinks, Antarctic sea life at risk, anxiety treatment, algal blooms, archaeological sites threatened, Arctic bogs melt, Arctic in bloom, Arctic ice free, Arctic ice melt faster, Arctic lakes disappear, Arctic tundra lost, Arctic warming (not), a rose by any other name smells of nothing, asteroid strike risk, asthma, Atlantic less salty, Atlantic more salty, atmospheric circulation modified, attack of the killer jellyfish, avalanches reduced, avalanches increased, Baghdad snow, Bahrain under water, bananas grow, barbarisation, bats decline, beer and bread prices to soar, beer better, beer worse, beetle infestation, beef shortage, bet for $10,000, big melt faster, billion dollar research projects, billion homeless, billions face risk, billions of deaths, bird loss accelerating, bird populations dying, bird strikes, bird visitors drop, birds confused, birds decline (Wales), birds driven north, birds face longer migrations, birds on long migrations threatened, birds return early, birds shrink(Aus), birds shrink (USA), bittern boom ends, blackbirds stop singing, blackbirds threatened, Black Hawk down, blizzards, blood contaminated, blue mussels return, borders redrawn, bluetongue, brains shrink, brewers droop, bridge collapse (Minneapolis), Britain one big city, Britain Siberian, Britain's bananas, British monsoon, brothels struggle, brown Ireland, bubonic plague, Buddhist temple threatened, building collapse, building season extension, bushfires, butterflies move north, butterflies reeling, butterfly saved, carbon crimes, caribou decline, Cambodian sex trade fuelled, camel deaths, cancer, cancer deaths in England, cannibalism, cataracts, cats more amorous, caterpillar biomass shift, cave paintings threatened, chagas disease, childhood insomnia, children's mental health, chocolate shortage, Cholera, circumcision in decline, cirrus disappearance, civil unrest, cloud increase, clownfish get lost, coast beauty spots lost, cockroach migration, cod go south, coffee threatened, coffee berry borer, coffee berry disease, cold climate creatures survive, cold spells, cold spells (Australia), colder waters (Long Island), cold wave (India), cold weather (world), cold winters, computer models, conferences, conflict, conflict with Russia, consumers foot the bill, coral bleaching, coral fish suffer, coral reefs dying, coral reefs grow, coral reefs shrink, coral reefs twilight, cost of trillions, cougar attacks, crabgrass menace, cradle of civilisation threatened, creatures move uphill, crime increase, crocodile sex, crocodiles driven from water, crops devastated, crop failures increase, cross-breeding, crumbling roads, buildings and sewage systems, cryptococcal disease, curriculum change, cyclones (Australia), damselflies forced back to UK, danger to kid's health, Darfur, Dartford Warbler plague, daylight increase, deadly virus outbreaks, death rate increase (US), death rate drop, deaths to reach 6 million, decades of progress at risk, Dengue hemorrhagic fever, depression, desert advance, desert retreat, destruction of the environment, dig sites threatened, disasters, diseases move north, diving reefs closed, dog disease, dozen deadly diseases - or not, drought, ducks and geese decline, dust bowl in the corn belt, dust doubles, earlier pollen season, Earth axis tilt, Earth biodiversity crisis, Earth crumbling, Earth dying, Earth even hotter, Earth light dimming, Earth lopsided, Earth melting, Earth morbid fever, Earth on fast track, Earth past point of no return, Earth slowing down, Earth spins faster, Earth to explode, earth upside down, earthquakes, earthquakes redux, El Niño intensification, end of the world as we know it, erosion, emerging infections, encephalitis, English villages lost, equality threatened, Europe simultaneously baking and freezing, eutrophication, everyplace hit hardest, expansion of university climate groups, extinctions (apes, human, civilisation, koalas, lizards, logic, Inuit, smallest butterfly, cod, penguins, pikas, polar bears, possums, walrus, tigers, toads, turtles, pandas, penguins, plants, ladybirds, rhinoceros, salmon, trout, wild flowers, woodlice, a million species, half of all animal and plant species, mountain species, not polar bears, barrier reef, leaches, salamanders, tropical insects, flowers) experts muzzled, extreme changes to California, fading fall foliage, famine, farmers benefit, farmers go under, farm output boost, farming soil decline, fashion disaster, fever, figurehead sacked, fir cone bonanza, fires fanned in Nepal, fish bigger, fish catches drop, fish downsize, fish deaf, fish feminised, fish get lost, fish head north, fish lopsided, fish shrinking, fish stocks at risk, fish stocks decline, five million illnesses, flesh eating disease, flies on Everest, flood patterns change, floods, floods of beaches and cities, flood of migrants, flood preparation for crisis, flora dispersed, Florida economic decline, flowers in peril, flowers wilt, flying squirrels move up, fog increase in San Francisco, fog decrease in San Francisco, food poisoning, food prices rise, food prices soar, food production increased, food safety affected, food security threat (SA), football team migration, forest decline, forest expansion, foundations threatened, foundations increase grants, frog with extra heads, frosts, frostbite, frost damage increased, fungi fruitful, fungi invasion, fungi rot the world, games change, Garden of Eden wilts, geese decline in Hampshire, genetic changes, genetic diversity decline, gene pools slashed, geysers imperiled, giant icebergs (Australia), giant icebergs (Arctic), giant oysters invade, giant pythons invade, giant squid migrate, gingerbread houses collapse, glacial earthquakes, glacial retreat, glacier grows (California), glaciers on Snowden, glacier wrapped, glass melts, global cooling, glowing clouds, golf course to drown, golf Masters wrecked, grain output drop (China), grain output stagnating (India), grandstanding, grasslands wetter, gravity shift, Great Barrier Reef 95% dead, great tits cope, greening of the North, Grey whales lose weight, Gulf Stream failure, habitat loss, haggis threatened, Hantavirus pulmonary syndrome, harvest increase, harvest shrinkage, hay fever epidemic, health affected, health of children harmed, health risks, health risks (even more), heart deaths, heart disease, heart attacks and strokes (Australia), heat waves, hedgehogs bald, hibernation affected, hibernation ends too soon, hibernation ends too late, homeless 50 million, home runs, hornets, human development faces unprecedented reversal, human fertility reduced, human health risk, human race oblivion, human rights violations, hurricanes, hurricane reduction, hurricanes fewer, hurricanes more intense, hurricanes not,... (more pages to follow)

Nov 19, 2015 at 12:24 PM | Registered CommenterMartin A

NielC, but..., what are you talking...., what pills, but, but... how do you come up with such nonsense? For a start you are talking about CET, which is not, though you seem not to know it, a measure of global temperature. But even accepting that ignorance, there is no discernible sustained drop of 2C between 1921 and 63 (or the other period probably, I haven't checked) - just wibbly-woobly up and down. You seem to be totally deluded.

Martin, you can copy/paste too. Excellent!

Nov 19, 2015 at 2:08 PM | Unregistered CommenterRaff

Raff - I take it that means you got the point I made.

Nov 19, 2015 at 3:23 PM | Unregistered CommenterMartin A

Raff I never mentioned global temperatures. What I don't understand is how at any point any where at any time apart from seasonal variation, can temperatures go down given CO2 levels are rising. How do you explain any drop in temperature.

Nov 19, 2015 at 4:57 PM | Unregistered CommenterNeilC

NeilC, you mean like today is colder than yesterday and tomorrow might be warmer. If CO2 is so important how does that happen? Duh!

Martin, you didn't seem to make a point. That the annual temperature cycle in Paris and Marseilles exceeds the likely change in average global temperature (or some average temperature field thingamajig as you wanted to call it) is news to nobody. That changing the average global temperature might have widespread effects is news to nobody. Lots of people research such issues. Your truisms don't alter anything.

Nov 19, 2015 at 6:01 PM | Unregistered CommenterRaff

"Do you Trust the Met Office?"

Quite fascinatingly I am not sure even the MO's employees actually trust their employer any longer.

There was a time when quite a number took up residence in the Bishop's Palace. They provided insight, opinions, data and at times welcome corrections. Their involvement has ceased, on mass. Group think or directive? Enjoy the speculation!

Personally, I only trust in one MO output - The Shipping Forecast.

Updated every 6 hours with actual precise empirical data.

Every other missive from the MO is simply a 'commercial' for their services. Any iffy weather potential is spun, explored and its ability to be 'adverse' is enhanced to the maximum.

They are headline seekers, just the same as the MSM and for exactly the same reason, to sell their products.

Nov 20, 2015 at 12:52 AM | Registered CommenterGreen Sand

Raff, are you suggesting CO2 has very little to do with temperature rise. Maybe you are suggesting the sun (night/day), air mass (water vapour), albedo (cloud type/cover) are more important regulators of temperature.

Nov 20, 2015 at 9:28 AM | Unregistered CommenterNeilC