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Discussion > When to stop flogging the dead horse.

Apparently the MET Office is having a chinwag next week about all these cold summers we’ve been having (not one above average since 2006).

http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2013/jun/13/met-office-uk-bad-weather-cause

Are they getting together to get their stories straight or will they have to finally down grade AGW? Probably the former as all things can be rammed under the heading of climate change. I expect even an ice age would be consistent.

However, the CET is down a full degree so far this year. The next few weeks are estimated to be below average. If it continues like this, 2013 will turn out in the top 5 coldest years in the last 100 years. If we believe that UK temperatures are bobbing along on a certain degree of AGW, to work out what the natural component is we have to subtract a value. Between 0.5ºC -1ºC? The first value would see 2013 in the top ten coldest years since records began (all before 1900) and the latter would place this year in competition with just one year for the coldest year on record. Even the long term average is dangerously close to the zero line.

There has been no major volcanic eruption, the sun is at solar max, the Atlantic is still in its positive phase. OK the jet stream is loopy but it’s been that way before. The Arctic is depleted of ice but not wildly so until the end of the summer.

How could natural variability explain a record breaking cold annual CET or would such a year set potential limits on the AGW value? How far will the MET Office and pals stretch credibility or will they dial things back?

Jun 13, 2013 at 11:53 PM | Unregistered CommenterTinyCO2

I am at something of loss to understand why such a meeting is taking place (or being billed as some how unusual). These people all work in essentially the same scientific discipline. That's their job isn't it? They should already be meeting each other quite regularly.

I won't comment on all recent UK summers because I haven't been here for all of them, but it still just seems like the British climate I grew up in.

Jun 14, 2013 at 12:26 AM | Unregistered Commentermichael hart

Coldest spring for more than 50 years

As I've posted previously, there are signs of heated discussion amongst the Met Office management.

There will be some irreconcilable motivations and viewpoints at play as they discuss whether to tough it out until reality once again matches their models or whether to quietly downplay things and adjust the story they are telling the world.

The fact that some government ministers are clearly no longer being taken in by the scam will be a significant element in the discussion.

Jun 14, 2013 at 12:42 AM | Registered CommenterMartin A

They need to come up with something good because global warming leading to cold writes its own jokes.

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/06/13/u-n-delegate-a-cold-summer-proves-global-warming/

Jun 14, 2013 at 1:02 AM | Unregistered CommenterTinyCO2

"However, the CET is down a full degree so far this year. The next few weeks are estimated to be below average. If it continues like this, 2013 will turn out in the top 5 coldest years in the last 100 years."

Out of curiosity, what did the MO forecast in, say January, for spring's weather?

When an organisation abandons its normal processes and decides what to do on the fly, it's a certain sign of management panic. Extraordinary meetings to discuss wtf it's been so sodding cold (as happened earlier, after which the MO put out a document by Slingo, where they had obviously brainstormed all the possible reasons they could think of) are a clear sign of alarm and fright among the MO management.

Jun 14, 2013 at 8:19 AM | Registered CommenterMartin A

- isn't quoting the CET just cherrypicking ?
- are people quoting it cos in other areas the cooing is not so significant ?
- even the global temperature doesn't matter that much, except that a rise pattern is extrapolated by the warmists to say that will be a high chance of catastrophe

Jun 14, 2013 at 8:30 AM | Registered Commenterstewgreen

Stewgreen "isn't quoting the CET just cherrypicking ?"

It would be if it was just a bit colder than normal (of course the rest of 2013 could be warm and there would be nothing un-usual going on). However if you subtract an AGW figure (which should be fairly high, given the UK latitude and has been quoted as all of the 1 degree warming seen in the last 20 years) then the current temperatures are not just low but record breaking. The early low temperature years were set as we were emerging from the LIA and presumeably have natural causes. We are told repeatedly that CO2 is a clear and overriding signal. If so, what natural events have blasted the underlying warming out of the water so far this year?

And it's not just the CET, the whole of Europe has been feeling the cold. Alaska has seen a sharp downturn too, such that the Nenana Ice Classic saw its latest breakup since 1917.

Cold temperatures are consistent with a strong AGW but record breaking cold is quite hard to explain. Personally I think the Northern Hemisphere has always been more extreme than the Southern, and that only part of the warming during the 80s and 90s could possibly be due to CO2.

Jun 14, 2013 at 9:12 AM | Unregistered CommenterTinyCO2