Entries from December 1, 2010 - December 31, 2010
Bishop Hill Wind capacity again
Dec 2, 2010 Energy 
Another interesting assertion by Prof Anderson on the earlier thread was what he had to say about capacity factors for wind turbines:
...the capacity factor for turbines - which ranges from low 20 to 50 depending on size and location (well sited on land probably 25-35%, with well sited offshore and bigger (3-5MW) 35 to 50%) - I recall a few years back some 3MW turbines near the Shetlands reached 52% over the year - though the Shetland is a particularly good site.
When we discussed this the other day, we were looking at figures that were much lower than this - more like 10%. Can anyone explain the discrepancy?
Bishop Hill Why four degrees?
Dec 2, 2010 Climate: Surface Climate: WG2 Climate: WG3 There was some interesting engagement between commenters on the Kevin Anderson thread and the good professor himself. Hat tips to all concerned.
My own contribution to the comments was limited - having been snowbound since the weekend, there was a certain amount of merrymaking in the village last night by way of cheering ourselves up. The one comment I did make was to note that a temperature rise of four degrees by 2060 is extremely high in the light of the temperatures observed since the millennium. Prof Anderson's response was to refer commenters to the Phil Trans A special edition that started the thread off.
If we look at the introductory article, by New et al., there is indeed some explanation of why four degrees is considered a number that should be discussed.
The 2009 Copenhagen Accord recognized the scientific view ‘that the increase in global temperature should be below 2 degrees Celsius’ despite growing views that this might be too high. At the same time, the continued rise in greenhouse gas emissions in the past decade and the delays in a comprehensive global emissions reduction agreement have made achieving this target extremely difficult, arguably impossible, raising the likelihood of global temperature rises of 3◦C or 4◦C within this century. Yet, there are few studies that assess the potential impacts and consequences of a warming of 4◦C or greater in a systematic manner. Papers in this themed issue provide an initial picture of the challenges facing a world that warms by 4◦C or more...
In other words, we think that CO2 emissions are going to be higher than expected therefore we need to look at higher temperature rises.
But hold on, my point was that 4 degrees by 2060 (perhaps 5 or 6 degrees per century) is high in the light of recent temperature trends. As readers of Lucia's blog know, even a trend of 2 degrees per century is on the cusp of falsification, so 5 or 6 is surely falsified at a very level of confidence.
If the trend is already falsified what is the point of looking at it, other than as part of a PR campaign?
Bishop Hill HSI sightings
Dec 1, 2010 Climate: HSI A couple of recent sightings of the Hockey Stick Illusion.
First there's Reformatorisch Dagblad, a Dutch newspaper, which has an article on the MWP, based largely on HSI. Original here, machine translation here. This appears to be the first of a two-part feature.
Then from South Africa, there's this article in Business Day looking at the year since Climategate and mentioning the Hal Lewis resignation, and with it HSI. The book is apparently "essential reading for understanding the climate scam".
Bishop Hill Competing interest?
Dec 1, 2010 Climate: WG3 Ethics Journals
Updated on Dec 1, 2010 by
Bishop Hill
There has been quite a degree of interest in the Louise Gray article in the Telegraph the other day - the one in which we were led to believe that a variety of scientists were calling for a halt to economic growth and the introduction of rationing.
Donna Laframboise is one person who has been taking a look at this story. She notes that Louise Gray is not presenting an accurate picture to her readers:
Bishop Hill Eco-schools
There was quite a lot of interest in the quote by a teacher that I posted up yesterday. On a similar theme, here is something I've been sitting on for a while.
The Eco-schools movement is, as the name suggests, an environmental programme for children. The idea appears to be to have a green spin to as much of the curriculum as possible, but also getting children to raise money for green charities and to involve their families in green campaigning.
As schools develop their eco-programme, they rise through bronze and silver awards, arriving ultimately at the highest level of eco-school award, the Green Flag. To reach this level, greenery needs to be pervasive across the curriculum.
