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The extraordinary attempts to prevent sceptics being heard at the Institute of Physics
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Entries in Bureaucrats (140)

Thursday
Mar102011

Rolls Royce minds

A must-hear interview with Jill Duggan, the bureaucrat in charge of Britain's emissions trading scheme. The Australians who are conducting the interview are worried that perhaps an ETS is not such a good idea.

Having heard the interview you will understand why they feel this way - Duggan's performance is truly catastrophic, with our the woman from Whitehall apparently unable to quantify either the costs or the benefits of the scheme she runs. It's hilarious, toe-curling and utterly compelling.

These, ladies and gentlemen, are the Rolls Royce minds that run the UK these days.

Excerpt (2Mb)

Sunday
Feb272011

Natural Histrionics Museum

The Natural History Museum has set up a climate change quiz, which has to been seen to be believed.

See it here, (but be warned, you will need a strong stomach).

Monday
Feb212011

Will Sir John condemn "hide the decline"?

Government chief scientific officer, Sir John Beddington has a post up at New Scientist (H/T Matt Ridley in the comments). Like his pronouncements last week, this looks at the subject of scepticism, but adopts a more sensible position:

It is time the scientific community became proactive in challenging misuse of scientific evidence. We must make evidence, and associated uncertainties, accessible and explicable. In a world of global communication, we cannot afford to only speak to ourselves. We must also be confident in challenging the misrepresentation or exaggeration of evidence and the conclusions it leads to. Where significant consensus exists, it must be made obvious.

I have left a comment challenging him to condemn "hide the decline" in unequivocal terms. I'm not holding my breath though.

Wednesday
Feb092011

DEFRA science advisors

The Department of the Environment, Food and the Regions are looking for scientific advisors. Anyone want the odd day of consultancy work?

Thursday
Jan272011

The Haldane principle and global warming

A scientist called Adam Leadbetter has written a thoughtful piece on the Paul Nurse programme. He is writing from a mainstream standpoint and therefore gets some of the Climategate facts wrong, but his conclusions about data openness are worth a look.

In passing he makes reference to the political control of scientific funding:

 

Science journalism needs to be more responsible

The Daily Express, The Daily Mail and The Guardian were shown by Paul Nurse to have reported the outcomes of the investigation into Climategate in completely different ways. Yes, newspapers have different editorial lines and I will choose to read one newspaper based on how it fits with my political standpoint and you may choose to read another. Fine. It is also true that scientific funding bodies may choose which projects are deserving of their money based on a political agenda set at a national governmental level. Despite that, however, the results of a scientific programme should be apolitical and as such deserve to be disseminated, at what ever level of detail, in an apolitical, factual way and not spun out of all recognition to the tone a newspaper editor finds most appealing.

The idea that politicians direct scientific funding is, I think, at least mainly incorrect. There is a long-standing convention - the Haldance principle - that scientific funding is directed by scientists, or perhaps more accurately by scientific administrators. So while we might be concerned about scientific funding being directed to support the ambitions of politicians, I'm not sure that things are any better with the science bureaucracy running the show. The bureaucrats, like the politicians have little or no incentive to direct funding towards projects that will further the interests of the public. Their economic incentive is simply to get more funding.

We can see the results of these perverse incentives in the pages of New Scientist every week.

 

Monday
Jan242011

Mad? Drugged? Or just civil servants?

Also in the Independent, the simply flabbergasting story that the Environment Agency is proposing airlifting fish from the Lake District up to Scotland, in order to mitigate the effects of global warming.

Fish from the Lake District will be moved to cooler waters in Scotland under radical plans – which will be unveiled this week – aimed at coping with climate change.

Haunting the Library (to whom a hattip is due) wonders if the government are on LSD. It's possible, but I wonder if this is just one of those bureaucratic documents that the minister signs off without reading. The explanation is more likely to just be bureaucrats wanting to expand their empires, and grubbing about for a way of doing so.

 

Friday
Jan142011

What we paid for the IAC

I have had a response to my FOI request regarding the Department of Energy and Climate Change and the Interacademies Council report on the IPCC.

Firstly, I asked how much funding DECC gave to the inquiry, and the answer is as follows:

The UK strongly supported the IAC review of the IPCC as an opportunity to make an excellent organisation even more effective. Alongside other IPCC Governments, the UK received a request from UNEP to provide financial support to enable a review of the IPCC to be carried out, and provided US$ 35,000 to support the review process.

Then I asked about whether DECC had put in a response to the inquiry. The answer is that they had, and I was referred to pages 654-8 of the recently published archive of the submissions. The relevant extract can be seen below. DECC think that, on the whole, the IPCC is fine and dandy, with just a bit of tightening up around the margins required.

Lastly I asked for any related correspondence, and they've said that I will have to be a bit more specific. I will give this some thought.

 

DECC IAC submission

Tuesday
Jan112011

How about updating the bristlecone data?

Al Fin, a new blog to me, takes a look at the amount of money the US taxpayer is spending on climate change this year. It's a big number.

 

I wonder if they could spare a few bob to update the tree ring data, and in particular the bristlecones?

 

[I've removed the image showing the breakdown of the numbers, as it appears to have been causing some problems. Follow the link to see a copy]

Saturday
Jan012011

The Greenhouse Conspiracy

I'm sure many of my readers have seen this 1990 documentary on the greenhouse effect - sort of an early version of the Great Global Warming Swindle - but it's the first time I've seen it.

I was struck firstly by how shifty-eyed Tom Wigley and John Mitchell come across, particularly when Wigley is asked about funding at around 46 mins. If you don't want to invest the time in the full video, this is the excerpt to watch.

Then there is the clear statement by the late Reginald Newell that he had his funding cut because of he had published a paper that undermined the greenhouse theory.

It's all rather amazing how little the debate has moved on in twenty years.

Thursday
Dec232010

Acton and UEA in the pillory

The Information Commissioner has required the University of East Anglia to sign a written undertaking to obey the Freedom of Information laws in future.

The University shall, as from the date of this Undertaking and for so long as similar standards are required by the Act, the Regulations or other successor legislation, ensure that requests for information are handled in accordance with Section 1 of the Act and regulations 5 and 11 of the Regulations. Internal reviews are to be handled in accordance with part VI of the section 45 Code of Practice, or regulation 11 of the Regulations as appropriate.

They go on to state that proper training and IT procedures must be put in place.

Because FoI laws don't allow in practice for the punishment of civil servants who flout them, this kind of public humiliation is the only option available to the Commissioner. But at the end of the day, civil servants are not held responsible for their misdeeds.

(H/T AJC)

Tuesday
Dec212010

Winter resilience

Updated on Dec 21, 2010 by Registered CommenterBishop Hill

With the whole of the UK apparently grinding to a halt with the cold and snow, it was interesting to be pointed to an official review of the UK's winter resilience capabilities (H/T John B).

A small team was set up under the leadership of Dr David Quarmby, a member of the "great and good" with background in transport. The team published its terms of reference here; an interim report was published last summer, and the final report appeared just a couple of months ago.

For our purposes the interim report is more interesting since it has a whole section entitled "Weather forecasting and climate change". All emphasis below is added by me.

12.7 The science of forecasting up to 30 days ahead and beyond has made great progress in recent years and will continue to develop; comparison of outturns against probabilistic predictions out to 30 days suggests that the information is of increasing value for winter service resourcing and planning.

Click to read more ...

Tuesday
Dec212010

Maybe their computer is too small?

Delingpole has picked up on the Met Office's claims of innocence over the issuing of "mild winter" predictions and notes just how much money we are spending on not getting a long-range forecast.

So let’s get this right. We paid for 90 per cent of the Met office’s £30 million computer; we also fund a hefty chunk of its annual £170 million running costs. And now the Met office tells us that it is incapable of providing the effective long range forecasts we could get for a fraction of the price from Piers Corbyn or Joe Bastardi?

Interestingly, the other day I came across this paper produced by Sir John Beddington and his team, calling for more money to be spent on the Met Office. The Review of Climate Science Advice calls for £90 million to be spent on upgrading the Met Office's Hadley Centre, including the purchase of a shiny new supercomputer. Still, it will enable some important questions to be answered...

Q4: How can confidence in the most uncertain aspects of large-scale climate projections be improved? Answer needed perhaps by 2015, although the sooner the better to answer questions such as:
• Are current global climate projections for mitigation decisions accurate?
• What are the sign and magnitude of key cloud feedback processes?
• Is geo-engineering a safe option?
• How can aviation be operated to minimise the impacts of emissions?

I must say I agree that it would be useful to know if current global climate projections are accurate. Presumably not though, if the "sign and magnitude of key cloud feedback processes" are unknown.

 

Monday
Dec202010

Scientists and bureaucrats

Speculation alert.

As one tries to understand the behind-the-scenes manoevres that are driving the climate change campaign, I find myself looking at the actions of bureaucrats far mor often than I do the actions of politicians.The BBC's coverage of today's announcements on science spending is a case in point.

In response to the announcement of deep cuts in capital budgets for science, our old friend Bob Ward pops up:

Bob Ward, of the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change said that the Chancellor's announcement was misleading:

"Government spending on research will in fact be about 14% lower in real terms," he said.

"Today's announcement confirms that the government is planning to slash capital expenditure for research. It looks like we could be returning to the dark days of the 1980s and early 1990s when researchers were forced to work in laboratories and facilities that were starved of investment."

Other people have questioned Ward's role at the Grantham Institute - it is unusual in the extreme for a university to employ someone to denigrate anyone who might question a particular point of view, as Pielke Jnr has pointed out. Yet here we have a different aspect to Ward's role - attacking the government cuts with a degree of vigour that even the official opposition don't seem to have managed yet.

How then to make sense of this dual role - climate rottweiler and public spending doberman? One feasible explanation is that he is employed to denigrate climate sceptics, but is a "concerned citizen" as regards the public spending round. But then again, perhaps this is all just part of a single role - one in which Ward is simply paid to defend the considerable vested interests of the scientific bureaucracy.

Monday
Dec202010

Cold weather payments

I was reading (I forget where) of concerns that the government's budget for cold weather payments to pensioners was being spent far faster than had been envisaged when the budget was put together. Was this, I wondered, something to do with a dodgy Met Office forecast?

So, as is my wont, I contacted the Department of Work and Pensions and got a swift response.

...this year's budget for Cold Weather Payments for Great Britain was based on the average number of payments made over the last ten years and with a payment rate of £25 for each week of cold weather. This year's budget is £76 million. However, Cold Weather Payments will be made to all those entitled to receive them.

The budgeting process does not include a forecast of winter weather.

I guess we should be relieved that the Met Office were not involved. Somebody at DWP probably deserves a pat on the back for keeping them on sidelines. That said, you wonder whether using the average of the last ten years is a sensible metric.

What do you think?

Sunday
Dec192010

Plus ça change...

...plus c'est la même chose.

This review of Benjamin Greene's Eisenhower, Science Advice, and the Nuclear Test-Ban Debate is rather interesting.  Take this excerpt for example:

Greene draws upon the private papers of the President and many of his key advisors and argues that, although Eisenhower sincerely wanted a test ban as early as 1954, he failed to obtain one primarily because he allowed policy to be captured by scientists and science advisors for much of his presidency.

...

Greene depicts Eisenhower as a well-intentioned leader overwhelmed by issues beyond his comprehension.