Bruckner's opus

Yesterday I was at the House of Lords for the launch of Pascal Bruckner's book on environmental catastrophism, which was sponsored by GWPF.

Bruckner, a prominent philosopher and author, gave a very impressive talk introducing some of the themes from his book, which is entitled The Fanaticism of the Apocalypse. French philosophers can overpower with their intellectualism, and while Bruckner is no slouch on this front I was pleasantly surprised by his easy wit, and how approachable he made his argument; it's hard to take against anyone who opens with a discussion of Tintin.

There was a great deal to enjoy. I kept having to pick up my pen to jot down things Bruckner said that had never occurred to me before or older ideas that were explored from new angles:

• The idea of catastrophe has replaced the idea of progress
• Racial minorities, women and slaves have been replaced as principal victims by Mother Earth
• Fear has become something to be desired.
• We are being transformed into children, ready to obey the orders of an enlightened elite.
• Friends of the earth have become the enemies of mankind
• Environmentalism is universal but "end of the worldism" is purely western.
• Environmentalism is about keeping the world for the bobos (bohemian bourgeois)

I've started working my way through the book and it's not an easy read (although much more straightforward than most works by philosophers). But I think Bruckner's view on greenery is rather penetrating and it's a valuable counterblast against apocalyptism. If you like struggling with ideas, it could well be worth a look.

Book Review: ‘Climate Change: Natural or Manmade?’

This review of 'Climate Change: Natural or Manmade?' is by John Shade of Climate Lessons blog.

It soon becomes clear which way the author is inclined to answer the question in the book’s title.  On page 22,  we see these words ‘the biggest scientific fraud in history’, on page 77 ‘global temperature is not a function of CO₂’,  page 83 ‘one of the biggest scientific shams in history’, page 89 ‘CO₂ emissions have nothing to do with climate’, page 106 ‘the flawed hypothesis that humans are causing catastrophic global warming’, and similar sentiments are to be found on pages 117, 135, 137, 140, 149, 156, 164, 175, 186, and 109.  They are also to be found in the Appendix which reproduces the resignation letter of the distinguished physicist Hal Lewis who wrote, upon leaving the American Physical Society (APS) in 2010 ‘…the global warming scam … has carried APS before it like a rogue wave.  It is the greatest and most successful pseudoscientific fraud I have seen in my long life as a physicist.’

Click to read more ...

A tale of two textbooks

Two new university level text books have hit the shelves, both coming from the Springer stable. I thought it rather interesting that the publisher had turned out too such contrasting takes on the climate debate almost simultaneously. Also, both books take interesting diversions from their main subject matter.

Cornelis van Kooten is a resource economist from the University of Victoria in Canada and his book is entitled Climate change, climate science and economics. Although Springer bill it as a research level text it's written in highly accessible fashion. The focus is very much on the economics, looking at emissions scenarios and climate models, cost-benefit analyses, impacts assessments, and the whole gamut of more or less sane policy responses. But the first few chapters focus on the science, with solid discussions of the temperature records and the paleoclimate studies, and with diversions into the discoveries of the blogosphere. Names familiar to those in the climate blogosphere abound: McIntyre and McKitrick, Watts, Mosher and even someone called Montford, who is cited more than once.

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Von Storch's new book

Pierre Gosselin has translated some extracts from Hans von Storch's new book, written with Werner Krauß. It looks really interesting. Take this, for example:

Was the climate apocalypse really at our doorstep as we could read in the media? Or were they exaggerating in their depiction of the results coming from climate science? [...]

The climate scientist [von Storch] had the suspicion that climate science was dragging around a ‘cultural rucksack’ that was influencing the interpretation of the data. The cultural scientist [Krauss], with regards to the appearances by some climate scientists in the media and the roles they were readily assigned, was reminded of weather-wizards and shamans of foreign cultures.”

I wonder if anyone is going to publish it in English?

Climate Economics

Climate Economics is Richard Tol's new book, currently available in draft for review here (I wasn't able to read it online - I had to download via the file menu).

It's clearly an excellent tome, written by a discerning author:

Climate research is rather controversial. Good introductions to the controversy are Mike Hulme’s book Why we disagree about climate change: Understanding controversy, inaction, and opportunity, Donna Laframboise’ book The delinquent teenager who was mistaken for the world’s top climate expert and Andrew W. Montford’s book The hockey stick illusion: Climategate and the corruption of science.

Kahan't see the wood for the trees

Dan Kahan has a problem with Michael Mann's review of Nate Silver's book, The Signal and the Noise.

Frankly, I find the gap between Mann’s depiction and the reality of what Silver said disturbing. You’d get the impression from reading Mann’s review that Silver is a “Chicago School” “free market fundamentalist” who dogmatically attacks the assumptions and methods of climate forecasters.

I don't think this discrepancy is any kind of a surprise to readers here - it's the way the great Mann works. But it's certainly fun to watch Kahan grappling with the problem of what he calls a "great climate scientist" mispresenting the work of a sympathiser. You wonder if he has considered the possibility that Mann might misrepresent his critics too.

I mentioned The Hockey Stick Illusion in my comment, but I think the moderator at Kahan's site has not yet recovered from the New Year celebrations. No doubt it will appear in due course.

(As ever, please be nice if you decide to comment at sites I link to.)

Global warming the novella

Andy West's sci-fi novella, launched at WUWT, looks fun:

For anyone nervous of SF geekiness, don’t worry it has no ray-guns or spaceships or time-warps; it’s only loosely SF and has plenty of action too. And those self-evolving memeplexes I mentioned are luridly portrayed, one in particular… Please do not baulk at the first use of the word ‘denier’, the context will become clear. Mention of climate change issues appears only slowly, but fear not there is purpose in this and a lot comes later on to stir minds, or for those already asking healthy questions, still an interesting perspective, a glimpse at depths of social realism, and some parts to revel in too.

The Signal and the Noise

I've mentioned Nate Silver's The Signal and the Noise before - Michael Mann took a fairly hefty pop at Silver for mentioning an unapproved (by Mann, at least) scientist.

I've now got hold of a review copy and I must say I'm very taken with it. In fact I would go so far as to suggest that it's a must-read for climate scientists.

Apart from the chapter on climate science that is.

Click to read more ...

Jeff Masters on Mann and PCA

Jeff Masters, the meteorologist who blogs at wunderground.com, has written the standard-issue five star review of Mann's Hockey Stick and the Climate Wars.

I thought I'd highlight something Masters wrote about the infamous short-centred principal components analysis used in Mann's paper.

[Mann] takes the reader on a 5-page college-level discussion of the main technique used, Principal Component Analysis (PCA), and shows how his famed "hockey stick" graph came about. It's one of the best descriptions I've seen on how PCA works (though it will be too technical for some.)

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A book review

Maurizio Morabito points us to this rather interesting review of a book entitled A Perfect Moral Storm: The Ethical Tragedy of Climate Change.

Adam Smith once noted that we are less troubled by the prospect of a hundred million people dying as a result of an earthquake in some distant location than of losing our little finger, but would nevertheless be horrified by the idea we might allow them to die in order to save it. Climate change effectively transforms the former scenario into the latter, and so places unprecedented demands on our moral imagination. Almost every little thing we do contributes to our carbon footprint, which increases greenhouse gases, which could in turn ultimately threaten hundreds of millions of lives in some remote time and place – the uncertainty only adding to the sublime awfulness of our responsibilities.

A reader survey

I've now finished the new book - a history of Climategate and the inquiries. I'm in the process of sending it out to various people for review.

This one is going to be self-published - Donna Laframboise has sold me on the benefits of DIY publishing and it really seems a bit of a no-brainer these days.

My mind is turning to whether to print a load of copies off or whether to go down a strict print-on-demand path. I'm reasonably confident that I will sell enough copies to make a print run worthwhile, so provided I can distribute them I think this may be the way to go. To help me in the decision, however, it would help if I could get some idea of how many people might buy a paper book versus the ebook versions. To this end I've put together a brief survey which I hope readers who reckon they might buy the book will complete for me. If you are a one of the recipients of the Bishop Hill newsletter (for subscribers and major donors) please don't complete the survey. I will be sending a signed copy to each of you.

The book is very similar in length to the Hockey Stick Illusion, so one should assume pricing that is roughly in line with last time round.

There are some new revelations too.

Click here for the survey.

Thanks!

Bob's book

One of the blogs I've been struggling to get the time to read for quite some time now is Bob Tisdale's. This is Climate Audit territory - lots of graphs, lots of statistics, lots of reading to do before you can understand the full story. Like Climate Audit it's a site that cries out for an introductory text to enable newbies to catch up with the story that has gone before.

Fortunately, Bob Tisdale has now produced a book, which I'm currently working my way through. There are still lots of graphs and lots of statistics, but it's written in a good accessible fashion and I'm getting a great deal from it.

Buy the PDF here or Kindle versions here (US) or here (UK).

Thought for the day

As we know, Mann doesn't mention The Hockey Stick Illusion in his new book. Is it a surprise that none of the reviews of his book have mentioned it either?

Mann cuttings

A couple of Mann-related bits and pieces.

Simon Lewis, the scientist who is perhaps best known for pursuing a complaint against EU Referendum through the Press Complaints Commission, has written a review of Mann's book. It's reproduced on Mann's Facebook page.

Meanwhile, Mann himself has a letter in the Wall Street Journal complaining about Anne Jolis' review.

Mann overboard - Josh 157

With Mike Mann's book still getting good coverage in various corners of the media I felt another cartoon was needed. Especially as another Mike, Mike Daisey, gave us such a brilliant quote: "I stand by it as a theatrical work" speaking of his made up story about the conditions at a Chinese factory which makes Apple products ( you can read the whole retraction here).

Mike Mann is not totally happy with all the PR, though, as we know from his Twitter reaction to reviews by Anne Jolis and Miranda Devine. He is probably going to be really teed off when he see this poll on the Daily Kos.

Click for a larger image

The article's title is 'Michael Mann is a Modern Hero and we need to acknowledge that!'. To date around 97% of readers do not agree and think he is either distorting evidence or should be fired from the University. That number sounds like a consensus to me.

And 'Game of Thrones'? It's an HBO blockbuster of a series based on George R R Martin's books 'A Song of Fire and Ice'. If you haven't seen the series you might not have the foggiest clue  what I am referring to... but, never mind, even the title 'A Song of Fire and Ice' couldn't be more apt. And guess what the show's slogan is: "Winter is coming".

Cartoons by Josh