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How representative?

While most of the Climategate disclosures concerned tree ring studies, one of the questions still to be answered is why so many of the emails selected for release were about SRES - the IPCC's estimates of how different things that affect the climate, including carbon dioxide, will vary in the future.

Now, via Richard Betts' Twitter feed comes news of the IPCC's latest version of these emissions scenarios, with a snazzy new name: the Representative Concentration Pathways. There is a paper describing how they were put together here.

I've only taken a quick glance, but I'm struck by how much carbon capture is predicted in some of the RCPs. Is this realistic? I thought CCS was something of an unproven technology.



Shrinking trees

Anthony Watts has a must-read story about the discovery of yet another confounding factor in the science of dendroclimatology.


Green spouts on drought

Duncan Green is head of research at Oxfam GB and has written an article exploring the question of whether the drought in the Horn of Africa is caused by climate change. The article is here and an edited version appears at the Guardian. I'm sure that comment will be freer at Mr Green's place.

Green presents evidence to support the idea that the drought in the Horn of Africa is global warming in action: anecdotal evidence from the locals and increases in surface temperatures. He also notes rather more importantly that the rainfall records are ambiguous.

Click to read more ...


Climate cuttings 57

It's all a bit quiet on the climate front at the moment, but there are one or two little snippets that might interest readers.

Interest in the last couple of days has focused on the Guardian's involvement in phone hacking. David Leigh tweets that he didn't make a habit of it. I've asked him how often he did so.

Green grandstanding by European politicians looks as if is going to have consequences. Bayer are telling the German government that they are feeling the strain and hinting that they may make investments elsewhere.

Twelve protected golden eagles were killed by a windfarm in California:

"Wind farms have been killing birds for decades and law enforcement has done nothing about it, so this investigation is long overdue," said Shawn Smallwood, an expert on raptor ecology and wind farms. "It's going to ruffle wind industry feathers across the country."

No doubt government subsidies to the windfarms will be increased to cover the government fines that will now be levied.

Uber-warmist Tim Flannery's calls for owners of seafront property to be worried about sea-level rise are looking fairly hollow with the revelation that Flannery has bought not one but two properties in the tidal reaches of the Hawkesbury river.

The disgraced former minister David Laws is being tipped for a return to politics, replacing Chris Huhne as Energy and Climate Change minister. The latter is facing the possibility of serving jail time for (alleged) perversion of the course of justice.


More on phone hackers

It's always interesting when someone you have met is in the news, particularly if it is in relation to a major scandal. We have discussed the links between UEA's media management team and the phone hackers, but another odd connection between Climategate and illegal accessing of voicemails has recently emerged.

Click to read more ...


Mashive attack

John Mashey and friend have been given space in the Chronicle of Higher Education to respond to Peter Wood's articles about Mashey's antics.


More pointed questioning of AGW

H/T Messenger for this podcast by Professor Murray Salby of Macquarie University. Salby looks to be pretty mainstream, having published with Susan Solomon and Martin Juckes among others. The message appears to be that much of the rise in atmospheric carbon dioxide may be natural and caused by non-anthropogenic warming.

Andrew Bolt summarises the talk here, noting Salby's comments that anyone who thinks global warming science is settled is "living in Fantasia".



Ben Pile on Steve Jones

Ben Pile at Climate Resistance has written a long and typically erudite post about the watermelon hypothesis of environmentalism. Steve Jones is discussed at length.


69% reckon climatologists falsify data

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey of American Adults shows that 69% say it’s at least somewhat likely that some scientists have falsified research data in order to support their own theories and beliefs, including 40% who say this is Very Likely.

H/T Adalberto in the comments.


UEA and the Outside Organisation

When the links between UEA and some of the people involved in the phone hacking scandal became clear, I put an FOI request into the university asking for their relevant correspondence. Today I've had a response:

We are assembling the requested information and it is clear that it is possible that to provide the information if it is held will require an assessment of the public interest. We are currently undertaking this assessment.

It is therefore anticipated that this will require an additional 10 working days to process the request above and beyond the current deadline of 15 August 2011 giving a revised deadline of 30 August 2011. If this timescale needs to be revised you will be advised as to the reasons and provided with a revised timescale.

Here we go again...


Manifestations of the madness

Today there are new manifestations of the madness that is gripping the UK.

The Telegraph (H/T GWPF) reports that UK manufacturers want hefty subsidies to compensate them for the green taxes that are hitting them so hard.

Meanwhile, I tried to buy some firewood for the winter yesterday. The first supplier I called said they could no longer supply hardwood because they had been priced out of the market by electricity generators. The second wasn't answering the phone.

When will Atlas Shrug?


Is this what's next?

A little while ago it looked as if biodiversity was going to be the next big green issue. It didn't seem to gain much traction, but here's what looks like another attempt to test the political waters: the Royal Society's latest seminar.

What would a global policy to regulate human use of fixed nitrogen look like?


Professor Jones is angry

Steve Jones appears somewhat irked at the criticism that has flowed his way since the publication of his review of the BBC's science coverage. Referring to the demonstration by Alfred Russel Wallace of the curvature of the Earth he expounds

Wallace was described as a "pitiful dastard… a swindler and impostor, a coward and a liar" and several newspapers published virulent pieces on the supposed dishonesty of the scientific establishment and its unwillingness to allow debate on such a contentious issue.

Of course, that could never happen today and all this has nothing to do with the tsunami of criticism that greeted my suggestion last week in a report to the BBC Trust that the BBC should stop giving excessive time to those who oppose science on the basis of belief rather than evidence and should promote debate between scientists instead.

This is quite interesting. Jones says that he has recommended that the BBC should reduce airtime to "those who oppose science on the basis of belief rather than evidence". If this were the case I imagine the "tsunami of criticism" would have been a minor ripple at most. However, Jones' description of his recommendations does not match the actual wording of his report:

I recommend that the BBC takes less rigid view of “due impartiality” as it applies to science (in practice and not just in its guidelines) and takes into account the non‐contentious nature of some material and the need to avoid giving undue attention to marginal opinion.

So far from seeking to sideline non-scientific criticisms, Jones delivered recommendations that focus on non-mainstream views. According to the recommendations I have quoted, you can be as scientific as you like, but if you are "marginal", you can be ignored. Far from defending science, Jones is actually building barriers to the scientific method.

And this from a fellow medallist of the Royal Society.


Jostling for position

Michael Lemonick has an interesting article about the role of the sun in climate, inevitably discussing Svensmark's work. This has the feel of further jostling for position ahead of publication of the results of the CLOUD experiment.

[Svensmark's] idea is far from outlandish on a theoretical level, and lab experiments at the European Organization for Nuclear Research near Geneva have shown that this can actually happen. Moreover, Svensmark and several collaborators have claimed to see a correlation between the sunspot cycle and cloud cover — more clouds when the Sun is quiet, fewer when it’s acting up.


The Cambridge conference - videos

The Howard Foundation has started to post videos of the talks at the Cambridge Climate Conference. So far only the contributions from Nigel Lawson and Vaclav Klaus have appeared. No doubt the scientists will follow in due course.

Lawson Part 1, Part 2.

Klaus Part 1, Part 2.

(H/T Climate Realists)