Sticking one's neck out
Jan 7, 2016
Bishop Hill in Climate: Surface

I avoid making predictions about the evolution of surface temperatures over the period of a few years. Those who choose to do so  frequently get themselves into trouble. James Annan lost his bet with GWPF's David Whitehouse and it looks as if GWPF's Sir Alan Rudge will lose out to Chris Hope on another wager.


.@stevebloom55 The bet is with Ian Plimer and Sir Alan Rudge. I win if 2015 not at least 0.1C cooler than 2008. @ruth_mottram

— Chris Hope (@cwhope) December 16, 2015

It's interesting therefore to see that some of the more prominent scientivists are loudly predicting that the current surge in global temperatures is not a simple Niño spike, but is instead the start of a sustained surge.

The effects of the PDO on global warming can be likened to a staircase, with warming leveling off for periods, typically of more than a decade, and then bursting upward.

“It seems to me quite likely that we have taken the next step up to a new level,” said Kevin Trenberth, a scientist with the National Center for Atmospheric Research.

Given that El Nino seems to have peaked, I guess we will be able to tell if he's right in the relatively short term. I do love it when people stick their necks out like this.

Update on Jan 7, 2016 by Registered CommenterBishop Hill

John Christy's comments are worth reading. Expect a few more months of warming after El Nino's peak, as the oceans give up their heat to the atmosphere. After that it gets interesting.

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