The night remains dark
Aug 14, 2015
Bishop Hill in Climate: Models, Climate: Surface

As the latest paper to try to explain the pause appears, it's hard not to smile. Reason follows explanation follows rationale follows excuse, and the interested layman is left with the abiding impression that the night remains very very dark indeed.

This is not to say that these are not valiant efforts to get to the bottom of things, but let us not kid ourselves, a la Guardian, that anyone really has much of a clue about what is going on yet. Claims that climate models are even more accurate than previously thought are the scientific equivalent of a fart joke and deserve the same response.

As if to confirm this point, we watch in bemusement as the sea ice resolutely refuses to do what anyone expects. The Greenland ice melt has gone fast, then slow and some are even claiming that the refreeze has started weeks ahead of schedule. The pause in the alleged Arctic death spiral looks set to extend to another year, but the Antarctic has blipped below its long-term mean for the first time in years.

There's a lot to learn isn't there?

 

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