- Bishop Hill blog

In my Twitter timeline come a couple of tweets from Tony de Brum Foreign Minister of the Marshall Islands, which is currently in the middle of a typhoon:

Just landed home. Majuro like a war zone. Roofs torn off, huge blackout, ships ashore. On alert for more tonight.

Today in Majuro. My family home battered by the beginnings of yet another cyclone. Climate change has arrived. MinTdB

Perhaps Mr de Brum might like to consider this analysis of typhoons in the Marshall islands.

On June 30th, 1905 a strong typhoon passed over the southern Marshall Islands, severely affecting Nadikdik (Knox), Mile, Arno, Majuro and Jaluit Atolls...Over 227 Marshallese lost their lives on that day on the affected atolls of the Marshall Islands...approximately 90 other people died in the following months due to starvation.

The typhoon of 1918 was devastating for Majuro Atoll. A storm surge washed across the entire southern part of the atoll flooding an area over 20 miles in length. The wave impact was not sufficient to reduce the entire island to the bare reef platform, but powerful enough to breach the narrow island in many locations in the south-eastern corner of the atoll.

An analysis of the historic record of typhoons in the Marshall Islands...suggest[s] that typhoons are 2.6 times more likely to occur during ENSO years, with a 71% chance of a typhoon or severe tropical storm striking during an ENSO year, and only a 26% chance of one happening during a non-ENSO year.

Update on Jul 4, 2015 by

Bishop Hill

Take a look at this long, long piece by CNN's John Sutter:

Kiribati, the Maldives, the Marshall Islands.

All of these barely peek out over the surface of the ocean.

And all of them literally could be wiped off the map.

That's not an immediate prospect -- definitely not five years or 10. Even 20. But it could happen within our lifetimes, and certainly within the next generation's.

The article focuses on the Marshall Islands. Fortunately for us, Kench and Webb have now expanded their analysis of land areas of Pacific atolls to include the Marshalls and they have found that, like the other islands they have looked it, they have been quite stable, or even expanding. In fact, they show that the islands first appeared during a phase of rapid sea-level rise!

The results also imply [Marshall Island] Jabat should remain stable in the face of projected sea level rise over the next century.

See also these comments in New Scientist:

There is presently no evidence that these islands are going to sink," says Virginie Duvat of the University of La Rochelle in France. She says that she and other researchers are trying to fight the widespread misconception that sea level rise will mean the end for atolls.